Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter

[The 4 Seasons]

Time to contact the 21Z SREFS for an SOS.

[Thunderblizzard]

18z Euro certainly isn't bringing any light to that tunnel.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

More like a little shitter. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Euro went further east, time to start celebrating!

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

You are insufferable. I'm not a denier. 

Honestly your response to him was weak I thought, and you are usually thoughtful and also smart.  He certainly isnt insufferable and he is making a good point and well worth a discussion 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If anyone is looking for the slighest bit of hope and light in this darkest of dark tunnels....

 

....the 21Z RPM took quite a jog back NW 

We probably want to see a bump NW on the 00z suite to keep this one alive...or at the very minimum hold serve and then a bump NW at 06z or 12z. 

On our threats that came back within 60 hours, usually we started seeing a move by 48...I'm thinking of systems like 2/5/16 or even 12/29/12 (aka "the rpm storm")...we started seeing a creep back NW around 48h out even if it wasn't a hit yet. 

[dryslot]

18z models as a whole were not good, Really need to see some moves back NW soon to even get eastern areas.

[dryslot]

For a flow that suppose to be fast, That clipper is taking its sweet time getting out of the way.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't get this idea that winters are struggling or going to struggle to produce large snowstorms or prolific snow events....the empirical evidence supports the opposite frankly. Maybe someday it will be true way out into the future.

This is despite also there being empirical evidence that the Hadley cell has expanded...it hasn't stopped huge events of all kinds in clocking us...even this year, we got a meandering slow massive cutoff low that assaulted us for 3 days in early December with two distinct pulses. 

The impact of climate change doesn’t necessarily mean less snow as you understand way better than me.  It means more moisture available perhaps.  It probably means a rise in overall temps.  It means most probably that analogues of llarge scale patterns like Tip is saying are less dependable.  Don’t understand why that is so controversial to some.

[UnitedWx]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My hope is the people here who are very concerned about man made climate change are doing their part to reduce the carbon they say is the cause. Like not taking planes,  cruises, using all alternative energy, making sure everything they do reduces their carbon footprint. Preach the gospel and act accordingly,  otherwise you are a hypocrite.  I don't deny the earth has warmed.  I just can't explain it away to man made and I am more concerned with air and water pollution as well as gangs, opioids, wars and the sundry more pressing issues. Call me a denier to shut me down, whatever.  You want to raise pseudo science to make a point I will call you out every time. 

Agreed completely. How old is this planet, 4 billion years give or take a few hundred million...that's how long climate change has been happening. I personally am not sold on the human component. And there's been lots of talk of fast flow, not denying that. But I've seen more slow moving east coast systems in the last decade than the previous 3. What's that old proverb? May you live in interesting times!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Time to lay off the CC talk.

[The 4 Seasons]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We probably want to see a bump NW on the 00z suite to keep this one alive...or at the very minimum hold serve and then a bump NW at 06z or 12z. 

On our threats that came back within 60 hours, usually we started seeing a move by 48...I'm thinking of systems like 2/5/16 or even 12/29/12 (aka "the rpm storm")...we started seeing a creep back NW around 48h out even if it wasn't a hit yet. 

I really just use that model, if anything, for possible trends as it's the fastest model with a 60hr+ range to come out.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I really just use that model, if anything, for possible trends as it's the fastest model with a 60hr+ range to come out.

I believe Juno was a last second 48 hour forecast change by the model guidance.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Agreed completely. How old is this planet, 4 billion years give or take a few hundred million...that's how long climate change has been happening. I personally am not sold on the human component. And there's been lots of talk of fast flow, not denying that. But I've seen more slow moving east coast systems in the last decade than the previous 3. What's that old proverb? May you live in interesting times!

Fast flow happens,  we have been blessed with lots of transient blocking,  not this time. Hopefully the fast flow scoots that Northern stream out of screwing up our southern stream. Still a day or so away from seeing what happens.  Premature thread killing jinx strikes again.lol

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The impact of climate change doesn’t necessarily mean less snow as you understand way better than me.  It means more moisture available perhaps.  It probably means a rise in overall temps.  It means most probably that analogues of llarge scale patterns like Tip is saying are less dependable.  Don’t understand why that is so controversial to some.

I agree with Bob this is not the thread for this talk. This is supposed to be a storm threat thread...but to quickly answer your question before I move this response to banter....my beef with the posts was the psycho-analysis that implied that somehow anyone who says it hasn't adversely affected SNE snowfall is in some sort of defensive denial. It's really weird considering that statement isn't a denial but rather based on empirical evidence as Nick implied. If anything, maybe CC has actually helped SNE. We don't know for sure.  

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with Bob this is not the thread for this talk. This is supposed to be a storm threat thread...but to quickly answer your question before I move this response to banter....my beef with the posts was the psycho-analysis that implied that somehow anyone who says it hasn't adversely affected SNE snowfall is in some sort of defensive denial. It's really weird considering that statement isn't a denial but rather based on empirical evidence as Nick implied. If anything, maybe CC has actually helped SNE. We don't know for sure.  

Bingo and dont move it. This thread needs life

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe Juno was a last second 48 hour forecast change by the model guidance.

Jan 2015 was def a late move...though I didn't include that one in my examples because it was due to complex phasing and not a simple move NW based on W ATL ridging or maybe a confluence zone moving north. Something like that which this current threat is more analogous to. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2015 was def a late move...though I didn't include that one in my examples because it was due to complex phasing and not a simple move NW based on W ATL ridging or maybe a confluence zone moving north. Something like that which this current threat is more analogous to. 

You don't think there is a phasing component still?  I mean there are two branches that end up interacting off the East Coast and Western Atlantic, but again timing is really off.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2015 was def a late move...though I didn't include that one in my examples because it was due to complex phasing and not a simple move NW based on W ATL ridging or maybe a confluence zone moving north. Something like that which this current threat is more analogous to. 

Where and when did the North trend start was it that 12 29 12 storm. I just ran across video of that

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Where and when did the North trend start was it that 12 29 12 storm. I just ran across video of that

From what i remember the north trend started on american models about 24-48 hrs before and become quite drastic with 12-18 hours up until start. Dont quote me on that though.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

My hope is the people here who are very concerned about man made climate change are doing their part to reduce the carbon they say is the cause. Like not taking planes,  cruises, using all alternative energy, making sure everything they do reduces their carbon footprint. Preach the gospel and act accordingly,  otherwise you are a hypocrite.  I don't deny the earth has warmed.  I just can't explain it away to man made and I am more concerned with air and water pollution as well as gangs, opioids, wars and the sundry more pressing issues. Call me a denier to shut me down, whatever.  You want to raise pseudo science to make a point I will call you out every time. 

You can be concerned for the planet and not be a hypocrite if you don’t jump all in on reducing your carbon footprint to zero my friend.   It’s like if you are more concerned about gangs and drugs, it doesn’t make you a hypocrite if you don’t spend all your free time mentoring at-risk youth and serving at your local addiction clinic.  Being concerned with something doesn’t mean you have to devote everything to that cause... you can be in favor of policy that helps the greater good.  There’s just something about climate change that seems so touchy and gets folks all riled up.

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

From what i remember the north trend started on american models about 24-48 hrs before and become quite drastic with 12-18 hours up until start. Dont quote me on that though.

Sounds about right. It was def inside of 48. We started seeing a move maybe 36-42h from the main guidance? RPM showed it a bit outside of 48 and then never let it go...I just remember it had like 6 runs solo as a big hit until the first "real" model showed a hit. (Keeping in mind the rpm runs every 3 hours)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Are there mechanisms at play that could tug this back enough at a short lead to give us an event?

Its hard for me to find anything changing much on the last few runs of guidance... so what could change?

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You can be concerned for the planet and not be a hypocrite if you don’t jump all in on reducing your carbon footprint to zero my friend.   It’s like if you are more concerned about gangs and drugs, it doesn’t make you a hypocrite if you don’t spend all your free time mentoring at-risk youth and serving at your local addiction clinic.  Being concerned with something doesn’t mean you have to devote everything to that cause... you can be in favor of policy that helps the greater good.  There’s just something about climate change that seems so touchy and gets folks all riled up.

Do your part, dont just be a mouth piece. You too are a part of the problem if you think it’s man made, you are part of the problem. Personally I don’t think so.  talk the talk and not walk the walk isn’t gonna help your fellow man. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Are there mechanisms at play that could tug this back enough at a short lead to give us an event?

Its hard for me to find anything changing much on the last few runs of guidance... so what could change?

See if that shortwave tomorrow/tomorrow night that gives the snow showers (esp to moutnains) lifts out quicker than model guidance is showing. It trended slower today which is all that was needed to shoot the storm east because it didn't give our main shortwave enough room to amplify. 

 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Are there mechanisms at play that could tug this back enough at a short lead to give us an event?

Its hard for me to find anything changing much on the last few runs of guidance... so what could change?

I’d like to see the s/w associated with the storm slow down. Let that stronger piece dive in for some sort of phase earlier on rather than up in Nick land. Any little bit we can get that lead northern s/w outta here is a benefit too. The more spacing the better. A tick here and a tick there and maybe we can get a chain reaction of events to get some of those better results more westward. We’re running out of time though and our lead moose fart one will be passing north of us tomorrow night. So it’ll be tough to correct a lot of error in our benefit with that one. Of course it could go the other way too. 

[dendrite]

Ninja’d by Will as usual.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

See if that shortwave tomorrow/tomorrow night that gives the snow showers (esp to moutnains) lifts out quicker than model guidance is showing. It trended slower today which is all that was needed to shoot the storm east because it didn't give our main shortwave enough room to amplify. 

 

Yeah, if that s/w does not lift out, we lose the ability for the follow up wave to amplify and phase sooner with the ULL over the GL that is diving in behind it.  We not talking huge changes to make sensible weather differences, especially down here in SE MA.  All we need is about 75-100mi 

[Baroclinic Zone]

There’s is Brian’s solution as well.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, if that s/w does not lift out, we lose the ability for the follow up wave to amplify and phase sooner with the ULL over the GL that is diving in behind it.  We not talking huge changes to make sensible weather differences, especially down here in SE MA.  All we need is about 75-100mi 

Faster NS  flow would help