Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Fast flow don't allow for much if any amplification, I'm hoping as we move along in Jan it starts to get better. I honestly have my doubts... I think we're in sort of uncharted CC waters here... The CC stuff and the expanded Hadley Cell is a pan-systemic, Earth-based problem... it's not a matter of reshuffling the rosby numbers and orienations and so forth. Even if the latter rouletts its way into a better configuration, does it merely situated over the top of and compress the heights? It's not like 1990 anymore. We have to contend with ... This is quick/snap search on the web to serve as primer, but there is a Climate report that links to hundreds of scientifically vetted/apprv paper material that goes into it deeper. but, https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion means winter be f'ed if one than integrates conceptually into actual Meteorological consequences. This expansion didn't start this year...it's been growing in coherency ...particularly since the mega NINO of the late 1990s...It's almost like that even was a Terran-wide climate threshold point and by subtle geometries, we never really ever settled back/recovered to the previous dynamics. We are in fact, going up still ever since, and this year ? This is the worse I have consequentially observed the speeding up aspect, yet. Why would anyone wonder why the big Nino from 3-5 years ago didn't register as obviously in the global circuitry - it's because it's getting f'n burried in already an atmospheric surplus of latent heat in the tropics, so it's not triggering an atmospheric response. yet, those folks out there keep planning on winters doing a-b-c, because of x-y-z ENSO. ...it's interestingly debatable... There are no absolutes - some bigger by proportion anomaly can off-set. But, that by definition is rarefied so - Anyway, suppositional, but if we deal with this shit the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised. even if we get lucky ( anyway ) and get clocked once or twice and smugly use that to rationalize things as still being fine ... still doesn't change the reality of what's happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The GFS SE bias at 72 hours on coastals actually works great for this upcoming system. The 12z gfs is likely where the UKIE will wind up at if not more progressive in about 24-36 hours as this flow screams progressive Be aware of the nw trend but not sure with the fast pac. 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Too detailed a perspective - though probably correct nonetheless. Just say the flow is too fast and the waves can't phase. That should 'bout do it - 2 storms that have went from a big storm to nothing because of the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I dunno...the way the 500 was setting up it looked better. I question what NAM manufactures after a better look... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Throw the towel in, we're as cooked as the Patriots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Be aware of the nw trend but not sure with the fast pac. 2 storms that have went from a big storm to nothing because of the fast flow. It’s gonna come back NW I think but probably not enough outside of far eastern areas of Long Island and Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Icon looks a hair flatter to me through 39... it was already a whiff at 12z... so you can guess where this run is headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: God forbid a thread is started good, bad, indifferent when it comes to specific threats. You should start one for the Monday overrunning, probably more snow in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: God forbid a thread is started good, bad, indifferent when it comes to specific threats. Yeah I don’t get the angst about starting a thread.... we’ve had threads started way earlier. This thing is within 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Barely scraps jimmy.... effectively a complete whiff this run. 12z was throwing snow almost back to NYS I have been hoping for it to whiff....not interested in it and don't want to have to blog about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Yup... icon is even further SE. In all seriousness... we are going to need to see legit changes in the other direction at 00z if this has any shot at producing snow for anyone in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 There's a 960mb low over Nova Scotia. Fast flow isn't preventing amplification, it's just not amplifying where you want it to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I honestly have my doubts... I think we're in sort of uncharted CC waters here... The CC stuff and the expanded Hadley Cell is a pan-systemic, Earth-based problem... it's not a matter of reshuffling the rosby numbers and orienations and so forth. Even if the latter rouletts its way into a better configuration, does it merely situated over the top of and compress the heights? It's not like 1990 anymore. We have to contend with ... This is quick/snap search on the web to serve as primer, but there is a Climate report that links to hundreds of scientifically vetted/apprv paper material that goes into it deeper. but, https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion means winter be f'ed if one than integrates conceptually into actual Meteorological consequences. This expansion didn't start this year...it's been growing in coherency ...particularly since the mega NINO of the late 1990s...It's almost like that even was a Terran-wide climate threshold point and by subtle geometries, we never really ever settled back/recovered to the previous dynamics. We are in fact, going up still ever since, and this year ? This is the worse I have consequentially observed the speeding up aspect, yet. Why would anyone wonder why the big Nino from 3-5 years ago didn't register as obviously in the global circuitry - it's because it's getting f'n burried in already an atmospheric surplus of latent heat in the tropics, so it's not triggering an atmospheric response. yet, those folks out there keep planning on winters doing a-b-c, because of x-y-z ENSO. ...it's interestingly debatable... There are no absolutes - some bigger by proportion anomaly can off-set. But, that by definition is rarefied so - Anyway, suppositional, but if we deal with this shit the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised. even if we get lucky ( anyway ) and get clocked once or twice and smugly use that to rationalize things as still being fine ... still doesn't change the reality of what's happening. SNE has gotten smoked for like 15 years in the snow department though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You should start one for the Monday overrunning, probably more snow in that. That looks better for NNE. Maybe someone up north should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That looks better for NNE. Maybe someone up north should. Won't be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There's a 960mb low over Nova Scotia. Fast flow isn't preventing amplification, it's just not amplifying where you want it to. The irony is that the trend we're seeing is a slower northern stream lead shortwave that is hurting this threat. It is moving slower out of our region despite the fast flow pattern overall...so the particular detail that has changed on this threat versus the 00z runs is something that is working as an opposing force to the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: SNE has gotten smoked for like 15 years in the snow department though. Doesn't fit the narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Doesn't fit the narrative. Yeah I don't get this idea that winters are struggling or going to struggle to produce large snowstorms or prolific snow events....the empirical evidence supports the opposite frankly. Maybe someday it will be true way out into the future. This is despite also there being empirical evidence that the Hadley cell has expanded...it hasn't stopped huge events of all kinds in clocking us...even this year, we got a meandering slow massive cutoff low that assaulted us for 3 days in early December with two distinct pulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I honestly have my doubts... I think we're in sort of uncharted CC waters here... The CC stuff and the expanded Hadley Cell is a pan-systemic, Earth-based problem... it's not a matter of reshuffling the rosby numbers and orienations and so forth. Even if the latter rouletts its way into a better configuration, does it merely situated over the top of and compress the heights? It's not like 1990 anymore. We have to contend with ... This is quick/snap search on the web to serve as primer, but there is a Climate report that links to hundreds of scientifically vetted/apprv paper material that goes into it deeper. but, https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion means winter be f'ed if one than integrates conceptually into actual Meteorological consequences. This expansion didn't start this year...it's been growing in coherency ...particularly since the mega NINO of the late 1990s...It's almost like that even was a Terran-wide climate threshold point and by subtle geometries, we never really ever settled back/recovered to the previous dynamics. We are in fact, going up still ever since, and this year ? This is the worse I have consequentially observed the speeding up aspect, yet. Why would anyone wonder why the big Nino from 3-5 years ago didn't register as obviously in the global circuitry - it's because it's getting f'n burried in already an atmospheric surplus of latent heat in the tropics, so it's not triggering an atmospheric response. yet, those folks out there keep planning on winters doing a-b-c, because of x-y-z ENSO. ...it's interestingly debatable... There are no absolutes - some bigger by proportion anomaly can off-set. But, that by definition is rarefied so - Anyway, suppositional, but if we deal with this shit the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised. even if we get lucky ( anyway ) and get clocked once or twice and smugly use that to rationalize things as still being fine ... still doesn't change the reality of what's happening. This post is a good example of a relevant inclusion of climate change in a pattern conversation. Not a scientist but I’ve been wondering about what Tip is saying here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: SNE has gotten smoked for like 15 years in the snow department though. SNE doesn't mean shit.... You have to take hemisphere's apart in quadrature. Firstly.. come on Secondly, the climate models and theoretical physics state we increase PWAT potential in a warming atmosphere such that when sufficiently cold enough, more snow "in the last 15 years" absolutely fits that both science and the narrative ( Steve ) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: SNE doesn't mean shit.... You have to take hemisphere's apart in quadrature. Firstly.. come on Secondly, the climate models and theoretical physics state we increase PWAT potential in a warming atmosphere such that when sufficiently cold enough, more snow "in the last 15 years" absolutely fits that both science and the narrative ( Steve ) ... I know the hadley cell expansion is real. I'm just saying it hasn't detrimentally affected SNE snowfall in any way, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: There's a 960mb low over Nova Scotia. Fast flow isn't preventing amplification, it's just not amplifying where you want it to. The wave length are unusually long - that is because of the fast flow... I don't have personal wants where this things take place... but the 960 low, typically is farther west in a "normal " r-wave distribution. I'm not going to argue what is correct. You guys just don't like the climate implication - that is what is not liked here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: The wave length are unusually long - that is because of the fast flow... I don't have personal wants where this things take place... but the 960 low, typically is farther west in a "normal " r-wave distribution. I'm not going to argue what is correct. You guys just don't like the climate implication - that is what is not like here You are insufferable. I'm not a denier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I know the hadley cell expansion is real. I'm just saying it hasn't detrimentally affected SNE snowfall in any way, yet. I think it has ...it's helping to snow more hahaha... Probably talking past one another. I just got back trying to catch up - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: You are insufferable. I'm not a denier. I never said you were - I said Steve parenthetically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 anyway ... at some point the the increased PWAT probably would mean more rain vs snow, here... but that's who knows how long off. The conversation I was having with Dryslot wasn't snow specific - we were talking around the fast flow stuff. The stuff about snow is recent and another aspect. Theoretically ...expanding the HC into winter months should speed up the flow and it's being noted... That's an open shut case. And, is a climate change implication that Steve hates ... wah wah waah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Again, ... you guys, we were talking about the speeding up of the flow stuff. You guys are exposing your fears and insecurities deviating that into snow so far..just a little here. ha. I couldn't give a shit less about snow. I'm worried about the evidences of CC in HC expansion and objectively attempting to speculate what it means for the future. Like I said, increasing heat increased PWAT in Earth's geo-physical interplay, so provided there is sufficient cold, ... duh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Gfs held serve basically. its really too bad.... if this thing could have jus tucked NW a bit more someone could have scored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I never said you were - I said Steve parenthetically Like Will said, anyone that doesn't agree with your horseshit is a denier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 If anyone is looking for the slighest bit of hope and light in this darkest of dark tunnels.... ....the 21Z RPM took quite a jog back NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 My hope is the people here who are very concerned about man made climate change are doing their part to reduce the carbon they say is the cause. Like not taking planes, cruises, using all alternative energy, making sure everything they do reduces their carbon footprint. Preach the gospel and act accordingly, otherwise you are a hypocrite. I don't deny the earth has warmed. I just can't explain it away to man made and I am more concerned with air and water pollution as well as gangs, opioids, wars and the sundry more pressing issues. Call me a denier to shut me down, whatever. You want to raise pseudo science to make a point I will call you out every time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now