STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The GFS SE bias at 72 hours on coastals actually works great for this upcoming system. The 12z gfs is likely where the UKIE will wind up at if not more progressive in about 24-36 hours as this flow screams progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 We side with Cranker. It’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The GFS SE bias at 72 hours on coastals actually works great for this upcoming system. The 12z gfs is likely where the UKIE will wind up at if not more progressive in about 24-36 hours as this flow screams progressive The problem is not the progressive nature, but rather two streams are differing speeds. If both the southern and northern branches of the split jet pattern were progressive in nature there would be a greater likelihood of phasing, but with two streams at odds in speed the potential for phasing decreases. However, I am not seeing the northern branch lead disturbance over the Great Lakes today as a problem for our coastal storm and its track up the coast. In fact, it is the phasing of the two jets. With lack of a strong +PNA ridge in place out west, to slow down the northern stream phasing is reliant on the southern branch and its potential strength and orientation. We have a lot to decide in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Too many men on the field. That northern s/w keeps slowing down a hair every set of model runs and limits the ability for the storm to amplify. Eventually the bigger dog drops in and everything goes nuclear toward the Maritimes. It'd be nice to be able to get some more downstream ridging out ahead of the system we're tracking. It's just a little too flat behind the moose fart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Too detailed a perspective - though probably correct nonetheless. Just say the flow is too fast and the waves can't phase. That should 'bout do it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We side with Cranker. It’s coming. When the models had it, you said forget it. Then the models forgot it and now it’s coming. I love it, always entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I'm going to hold out until 12z tomorrow, If we don't get improvements then it will be time to let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 This is kind of like 'threading the needle,' if perhaps in more of a holistic way. We're used to that metaphor where needles are thin, so...the margin of error is spread over a smaller latitude. From 84 or so + hours out we are hoping the dart targets us ( or not depending on what one wants) Even tho Wednesday's deal may end up a bigger spatial event by dimensions and so forth, we are still in effect .... narrowing probability for actually getting this to happen in time. So, in this case ...that's our needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm going to hold out until 12z tomorrow, If we don't get improvements then it will be time to let it go. mm, I feel pretty good about doing that now. Although the Euro took a bit of a hit on that last event it trying to drill 6-10" across SNE last week, that sort of error at < D5 is rarer for that model. I'm willing to cut it a break one or two bad calls along the way, when in general it's longer termed performance seldom displays that sort of wrongness. That, and, the S/W mechanics are relaying over land into the denser physically realized sounding domain so that should supply some additional credence - thought admittedly...it would have to be admitting to no drugs ..haha. kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Good week to be Saint Nick and Hazey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm, I feel pretty good about doing that now. Although the Euro took a bit of a hit on that last event it trying to drill 6-10" across SNE last week, that sort of error at < D5 is rarer for that model. I'm willing to cut it a break one or two bad calls along the way, when in general it's longer termed performance seldom displays that sort of wrongness. That, and, the S/W mechanics are relaying over land into the denser physically realized sounding domain so that should supply some additional credence - thought admittedly...it would have to be admitting to no drugs ..haha. kidding lol, The euro has puked down the front of its robe here a few times recently, But that lead s/w needs to either weaken so its further north or speed up to get out of the way for the one following, Even slowing down the trailing s/w would help too, Don't know if we get any of these changes though but we have seen all winter inside a tighter window we have had changes so we have that to hang on to for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 NAM doesn’t look like it’ll be any help at 18z... that norther feature still very prominent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 18z NAM coming in a little better I think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM doesn’t look like it’ll be any help at 18z... that norther feature still very prominent Just now, ineedsnow said: 18z NAM coming in a little better I think You two lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: It'll be rough, especially after a nice week of snow showers. A couple good rounds that might bring 4-8" to the ski areas this week just in time for the torch to come next weekend. Just gonna be one of those winters. You will be dumping next Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You two lol I honestly dont want it my two hour drive wednesday morning will turn into 4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You two lol The eternal optimist vs pessimist. Honestly I'd be leaning towards the pessimists myself with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 GREAT!!!! I've Been home since December 11th, seen TWO Storms.... Missed the 15" that fell before I was home in Ukraine.... BOTH Ice Storms... NO Snow.... with a Total of less than 0.5" of Wintry Precipitation..... NOW I leave TOMORORW, & STORMS ARE COMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: GREAT!!!! I've Been home since December 11th, seen TWO Storms.... Missed the 15" that fell before I was home in Ukraine.... BOTH Ice Storms... NO Snow.... with a Total of less than 0.5" of Wintry Precipitation..... NOW I leave TOMORORW, & STORMS ARE COMING. Nothing is coming, enjoy your next trip...not missing anything weenie related unless you want HHH in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 looks to me like the. NAM has the streak out of the way in time for the s/w to amplify a bit more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 And the WORST Part............ I had the Most Snow in December since the 2010-2011 Season. 9 Years ago. And I missed it. Unreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Nah 18z NAM will be east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: looks to me like the. NAM has the streak out of the way in time for the s/w to amplify a bit more? Looks flatter to me.... especially at 51. She gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 It’s always thread the needle when it comes to us getting snow. Hopefully a North trend in the last 36 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 We're going in the wrong direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 It happens with striking correlation coefficients - ... the first post is almost 1::1 guaranteed to be, 'x model looks better on this run' amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Barely scraps jimmy.... effectively a complete whiff this run. 12z was throwing snow almost back to NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, The euro has puked down the front of its robe here a few times recently, But that lead s/w needs to either weaken so its further north or speed up to get out of the way for the one following, Even slowing down the trailing s/w would help too, Don't know if we get any of these changes though but we have seen all winter inside a tighter window we have had changes so we have that to hang on to for now. yeah .. right .. agreed. No matter how we dress it up and uber hyper drill into the texture of the thing... like I snarked to Brian an hour ago, the flow is simply too fast for phasing. I mean what you describe is really alleviated if the ridge in the west pops higher in latitude... But it can't, because the whole fuggin' hemisphere is moving a ludicrous speeds in the first place - one thing limits the next thing --> ultimately limits that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You guys make quick hap-hazard posts about “storms on” or “storms off.” All we said was to give it time. God forbid a thread is started good, bad, indifferent when it comes to specific threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah .. right .. agreed. No matter how we dress it up and uber hyper drill into the texture of the thing... like I snarked to Brian an hour ago, the flow is too fast for phasing. I mean what you describe is really alleviated if the ridge in the west pops...but it can't, because the whole fuggin' hemisphere is moving a ludicrous speeds - Fast flow doesn't allow for much if any amplification, I'm hoping as we move along in Jan it starts to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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