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Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter


Baroclinic Zone
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We'll see what that developing band does....none of the models had it there at 21z...you only see it closer to 00z. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a meaningful forecast bust in progress, but if we see that thing continue to lift north without weakening and threaten the south coast near 00z, then it's probably meaningful.

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Holy jeez...the GFS has an epic CCB just offshore on the 18z run. Actually gets ACK/MVY and maybe even CHH. Man, if that was literally like 20 miles NW, that would destroy the south coast.

 

That could be a painful radar for those peeps....maybe see lightning flashes on the southern horizon?

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Holy jeez...the GFS has an epic CCB just offshore on the 18z run. Actually gets ACK/MVY and maybe even CHH. Man, if that was literally like 20 miles NW, that would destroy the south coast.

 

That could be a painful radar for those peeps....maybe see lightning flashes on the southern horizon?

Will, I think this might end up 20 miles to the west, look at the pressure falls off the DE and NJ coastlines, they are not out in the ocean, they are just offshore.  This suggests there is a westward pull on the surface low track from the upper level energy diving into the trough.  We could see an explosion of development as lightning has exploded along the cold front of the secondary low over the warm western Atlantic Ocean waters.  Upper-level support is diving towards the DE coastline and once this impinges on the low it will bomb out.  We could see huge upswing in amounts.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Will, I think this might end up 20 miles to the west, look at the pressure falls off the DE and NJ coastlines, they are not out in the ocean, they are just offshore.  This suggests there is a westward pull on the surface low track from the upper level energy diving into the trough.  We could see an explosion of development as lightning has exploded along the cold front of the secondary low over the warm western Atlantic Ocean waters.  Upper-level support is diving towards the DE coastline and once this impinges on the low it will bomb out.  We could see huge upswing in amounts.

Pressure falls aren't going to be that useful here....the low tracks over the benchmark basically....usually that isa great track for us but we're barely getting the precip past PYM on this one.

I'd just look at the radar ad water vapor probably over the next 3-5 hours.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that is a CCB. Jesus H. Why can’t we get that. (Said in best Bob Lobel impression)

21z RAP is excruciating too....has 2" per hour stuff clipping MVY around 05z-06z...doesn't have to be a big error there for it to get onshore. Maybe our south coast posters can get a surprise.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

21z RAP is excruciating too....has 2" per hour stuff clipping MVY around 05z-06z...doesn't have to be a big error there for it to get onshore. Maybe our south coast posters can get a surprise.

May have to take the ferry to relatives in Aquinnah. 

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