Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No ill feelings here. Never expected anything and it will be all a dream soon, anyway. You've been fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah most guidance has C-1" even for BOS. Euro had a bit more. It's going to be close, but my gut says it remains more SE of him and I. Ehh, That’s exactly my point ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I mean the 12km NAM looks pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Now , for the weenies/ non weenies . There has been decent lift modeled well NW in 5H V.V’s That’s prolly what will is referring to in a potential PVD -Bos band . That’s the 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, CT Rain said: I mean the 12km NAM looks pretty good It really does...if all the other guidance looked like that, you'd prob have to forecast advisory snows for BOS back to like E half of CT. But it's a red flag to me that none of the weenie short term models that always show weenie solutions aren't biting. It's possible they are struggling with the complex interaction between the offshore redevelopment/convection and the main shortwave a bit west of that....but you'd think at least one of them would go wild if we were going to be getting advisory snows over a decent area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 RGEM looks to want to correct west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It really does...if all the other guidance looked like that, you'd prob have to forecast advisory snows for BOS back to like E half of CT. But it's a red flag to me that none of the weenie short term models that always show weenie solutions aren't biting. It's possible they are struggling with the complex interaction between the offshore redevelopment/convection and the main shortwave a bit west of that....but you'd think at least one of them would go wild if we were going to be getting advisory snows over a decent area. I agree. None of the HREF members are biting so clearly the mesoscale/CAM guidance isn't biting. Wouldn't be shocked to see the globals like GFS and Euro tick NW some based on that 12km NAM depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I mean the 12km NAM looks pretty good Snow Monster may have trouble starting when the engine hasn’t been clicked on in a month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: RGEM looks to want to correct west some. Ended up virtually the same on SLP location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Heh, take away from this NAM solution is its behavior, not what it is showing on this run ... I realize "NAM still shows a crushing here " gets one to that excitement they're looking for ... but, these runs could end up being phantoms as others are also pointing out - might help protect one from disappointment if they focus on that. Historically the NAM does this in short term sort of 24 to 36 hour lead windows with these NW hiccups thing. We've seen countless times... Then it settles back - the bump E even by a subtle margin is exposing that instability. Yeah, it's just not a good model really ... particularly for gauging impacts because it does these synoptic two-steps too frequently. I think at this range if it isn't getting support from the other meso tools and/or the higher resolution/reputable G-scale numerical model types, one should put it's odds at success as very low confidence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow Monster may have trouble starting when the engine hasn’t been clicked on in a month. Been dormant so long, alternator went too... bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ended up virtually the same on SLP location Yea it’s weak. Hopefully you guys can pick up an inch or two...it’s about as good as it will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The gfs coming NW would be wonderful for folks on the ledge ( I mean edge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man I hope we could pull a Jan 30th 2018 surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The gfs coming NW would be wonderful for folks on the ledge ( I mean edge) Yeah, To bad it didn't though, Its about the same as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS looks very slightly more NW...we're talking very slim changes. But that's better than worse....keeps SE folks in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 You want to see how fickle things can be Look back at this. Lol Scott and Kevin threw in the towel, 18 hrs prior 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks very slightly more NW...we're talking very slim changes. But that's better than worse....keeps SE folks in the game. Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Man I hope we could pull a Jan 30th 2018 surprise I remember we had that weenie band out ahead and NW of the man precip shield late that night....it went from you to me...we were the only ones snowing for several hours on the forum....this little narrow band. Everyone else was virga or nothing. I had about 2" of fluff from that band....I think the stuff early the next morning I got another couple to 3 inches. SE MA got like 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI. Lift at 5H looks solid at 6z tonite for Bos-PVD se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI. The kick east has been the demise up here for this and that has not changed, Basically, Were left with some snow from the trough overhead but god only knows where that will end up, I favor the mountains for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You want to see how fickle things can be Look back at this. Lol Scott and Kevin threw in the towel, 18 hrs prior Similarities in how it could play out... I think we ended up 6+ here. Didn’t look good very close in either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember we had that weenie band out ahead and NW of the man precip shield late that night....it went from you to me...we were the only ones snowing for several hours on the forum....this little narrow band. Everyone else was virga or nothing. I had about 2" of fluff from that band....I think the stuff early the next morning I got another couple to 3 inches. SE MA got like 8". 8" ain't happening James on this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 no HRRR posts today yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Don't remember that one. Probably was a POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: no HRRR posts today yet? Nothing worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS was pretty close to closing off at 700mb S of MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Don't remember that one. Probably was a POS. You must've done ok...I had like 4" here. BOS had like 3" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yeah there's no HRRR posts or RAP posts yet because they all look like ka-ka. Same with RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You want to see how fickle things can be Look back at this. Lol Scott and Kevin threw in the towel, 18 hrs prior 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Similarities in how it could play out... I think we ended up 6+ here. Didn’t look good very close in either 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't remember that one. Probably was a POS. 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You must've done ok...I had like 4" here. BOS had like 3" maybe? My Snow Record for that one. 01/30/2018 8.00 Busted Raviolis all over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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