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Jan 8th, 2020 Coastal - little critter


Baroclinic Zone
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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Litttle critter went to the shitter for most of us. srn RI to the Cape may grab some decent snows. 

 I hope James and others that way get a few inches, maybe when the warm air blows out Sunday , can we sneak some in ? or is flow still cranking this stuff to quick to form?

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1 minute ago, 512high said:

 I hope James and others that way get a few inches, maybe when the warm air blows out Sunday , can we sneak some in ? or is flow still cranking this stuff to quick to form?

This weekend is toast. Maybe ice in central and NNE late Saturday night.

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There are snowfall warnings posted for the province of Nova Scotia expecting 6-9 inches for areas Lunenburg County,  north and eastwards

Most areas of western Nova Scotia which includes Cumberland, Kings, are under Special Weather statements with a straight out 4 inches expected, some may get more and could receive warnings as the track and intensity may shift slightly particularly for border locations as several of the models have varied on snowfall amounts closer to be in the range of 4-6 with many locations closer to 6 close to the border of the snowfall warning; moving towards the range of 2-4 in the deep southern tip of Nova Scotia

The unofficial small city of Sydney is expecting a brief changeover to rain which also retains the snowfall warning

Newfoundland is next to receive that football, and it appears our friendly neighborhood individual from that area is expecting the worst of fates compared to those who are missing out on this system as it appears to be the winter enthusiast worst enemy we like to call: RAIN

 

My subjective prediction is that the mid Atlantic is going to get hit with a surprise major blizzard that will cripple the city for a few days in mid February. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No melt, it's the shitter for most. I never wavered down near the Cape. We'll see how far it can come NW.

I guess it depends on what expectations are. NAM has accumulating snow for most of SNE even into Western Conn.

If we can get a day full of trickles today... I like 2-3” for you at least. Your not in a bad spot there 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I guess it depends on what expectations are. NAM has accumulating snow for most of SNE even into Western Conn.

If we can get a day full of trickles today... I like 2-3” for you at least. Your not in a bad spot there 

It's amazing because 8/10 times I look at the synoptics when this is in DC and say we are going to get smoked. But that streak to our north seems like it wants to prevent that. Otherwise I'd be all in. Hence the term went to the shitter. If you are excited about snow less than 1" then I suppose many may still want to keep their eyes open. Close call here locally. I could see a half inch or 4" LOL.  I'll still go with an inch or less locally unless things change. It's close. Mid level magic is nearby.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's amazing because 8/10 times I look at the synoptics when this is in DC and say we are going to get smoked. But that streak to our north seems like it wants to prevent that. Otherwise I'd be all in. Hence the term went to the shitter. If you are excited about snow less than 1" then I suppose many may still want to keep their eyes open. Close call here locally. I could see a half inch or 4" LOL.  I'll still go with an inch or less locally unless things change. It's close. Mid level magic is nearby.

I hear ya... not really sure what to expect.... it’s a potent little storm. I could see 1” or 6” depending on trends today 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The crazy part is this is still evolving/changing with each run...how is it this year/season pretty much every system has done this right up to go?  I don’t ever remember the modeling being so volatile with every system as much as it is lately? 

Tippy's fast flow wreaking havoc?

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The crazy part is this is still evolving/changing with each run...how is it this year/season pretty much every system has done this right up to go?  I don’t ever remember the modeling being so volatile with every system as much as it is lately? 

Models have been truly awful this winter. Is it because of the fast pacific ?

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I guess it depends on what expectations are. NAM has accumulating snow for most of SNE even into Western Conn.

If we can get a day full of trickles today... I like 2-3” for you at least. Your not in a bad spot there 

The wifey must be massaging your weenie quite often cuz you seem so relaxed and positive this winter. Congrats.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Models have been truly awful this winter. Is it because of the fast pacific ?

It's a combo of us giving guidance too much credit and fast flow. There has been some short term moves, but every winter features that. I think we have too much data on our hands and expect guidance to be better than it is. The progressive nature lately also does not help.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's a combo of us giving guidance too much credit and fast flow. There has been some short term moves, but every winter features that. I think we have too much data on our hands and expect guidance to be better than it is. The progressive nature lately also does not help.

Gotcha thanks

Hopefully the models get better as the pacific gets better by months end.

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If the 06z NAM verified then this would be a pretty potent event down in SE MA/RI. But it's kind of on its own right now. 

Ryan called it on the rpm....went from NW outlier to a total whiff in like 2 runs, LOL. 

06z Euro was actually pretty good like scooter said. That would prob be advisory snows for SE MA and RI and maybe back to like ginxy and SE CT. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If the 06z NAM verified then this would be a pretty potent event down in SE MA/RI. But it's kind of on its own right now. 

Ryan called it on the rpm....went from NW outlier to a total whiff in like 2 runs, LOL. 

06z Euro was actually pretty good like scooter said. That would prob be advisory snows for SE MA and RI and maybe back to like ginxy and SE CT. 

We’ll see what 12z brings. Any movement means a lot down here 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ll see what 12z brings. Any movement means a lot down here 

Yes it does. Can't afford any ticks back SE though....except maybe the NAM. You could still get advisory snows on the NAM of it slightly ticked SE considering it almost brought warning snows to you. 

Hopefully everything ticks NW again but I'm bracing for the messenger shuffle today.  

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As one would expect, EPS is better too. Real close call. 

Not a big fan of seeing short term guidance like hrrr and rap so paltry. Usually one of those would be going to town if we're gonna see a NW surprise. Throw the rpm in there too. 

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