RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ended up with a very marginal improvement in the end....pretty sick CCB just offshore. That needs like 30-40 miles to get the SE peeps. This would of been a 8-12” in almost every other winter. What shit timing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: ACK 6-12 on gfs. James 4-6. no way ACK is getting 6-12 or james 4-6 even verbatim on the GFS, BL too warm with rain and white rain. But yeah clown maps have 6-10 over ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: no way ACK is getting 6-12 or james 4-6 even verbatim on the GFS, BL too warm with rain and white rain. But yeah clown maps have 6-10 over ACK. There is no rain with this storm, the GFS is cold through the layer. The model would give ACK 12"+ and CHH over 6", the problem is the band goes NEward not Nward, so it hits ACK but misses CHH by 10 miles to the southeast. Oh and a 1016mb is good enough to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: There is no rain with this storm, the GFS is cold through the layer. The model would give ACK 12"+ and CHH over 6", the problem is the band goes NEward not Nward, so it hits ACK but misses CHH by 10 miles to the southeast. Oh and a 1016mb is good enough to track. Agree....bl is always too warm with these on gfs. Once snow starts, you’ll wetbulb quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Agree....bl is always too warm with these on gfs. Once snow starts, you’ll wetbulb quickly. Plus this is a month later than the previous storms early DEC, the ocean is a lot colder to the northeast which is where the winds will be out of, not the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Oh and with such cold 925mb temps and 850mb temps, dynamical cooling will take care of any BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I am going to sleep early tonight, long day tomorrow and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Oh i def think it will be mostly snow but i still think some will be wasted with rain, then melting snow in the mid to low 30s. Those clown maps are too high imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Oh i def think it will be mostly snow but i still think some will be wasted with rain, then melting snow in the mid to low 30s. Those clown maps are too high imo. They aren't high enough, ACK gets over 1.2" of QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 And i was referring to ACK, clown GFS maps have costal elbow in the 2-3 range. And btw NWS has the official fx for ACK Rain then Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GEM is a tick NW but still not going to do it for most. Par for the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: And i was referring to ACK, clown GFS maps have costal elbow in the 2-3 range. And btw NWS has the official fx for ACK Rain then Snow. Not with the cold at 925mb and the dynamical cooling process and the fact that when the 850mb low closes off it cools almost 6-8 degrees Celsius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Let James believe a blizzard is coming . good for sleeping 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 CMC looked better early... just like most of the other models... but the end result was a very small tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 RPM backed off again, dried up quiet a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 We need some help 6z and 12z but this is not looking good for more than a coating to inch for most of CT. 2-4 still in the cards but its gonna take a solid bump NW the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 49 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: CMC looked better early... just like most of the other models... but the end result was a very small tick NW Notice a trend? The H5 circle jerk isn't resulting in a ground orgy....so many different routes to boring. The "looks great at H5" battle cry works at day 4, but not really at day 1-2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nam is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is west Way west at least 50 miles nice hit from New York City right up into New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro was Same maybe tad East of 18z. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Looks like the cape and adjacent eXtreme SE MA should watch it. Despite what looks like a decent synoptic pattern for snows in SNE, the scoot last minute east may preclude decent snows NW of that. We have seen stranger things, but I would stay grounded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was Same maybe tad East of 18z. Yawn. Notice how it was bypassed in favor of a more nw 6z nam instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z rgem ticked nw but it still gives trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 We have lake streamers to look forward to at least. We do those well. Ya know, where you whip out the weenie for 5min then put it away for another 14 days. What a great time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We have lake streamers to look forward to at least. We do those well. Ya know, where you whip out the weenie for 5min then put it away for another 14 days. What a great time. Deep winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The 6z runs are pretty good so far. A bit more tucked. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NWS has nearly 0 for snow accumulation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Litttle critter went to the shitter for most of us. srn RI to the Cape may grab some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z Nam is a pretty nice hit down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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