USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Why does the precipitation cut off south of ACK and miss the Cape and then develops to the south of NS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man that is so close. Jeez like 20 miles means so much. I asked but nobody is answering? So I’ll ask you directly: these are model runs/not the exact future; do you really think that shit streak is gonna have that much influence on this in the end/at go time? The spacing was better on the NAM. If the spacing increases incrementally again on the next run, that may be all we need for this to blossom up toward SNE. And ultimately be closer and not kick East like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: I asked but nobody is answering? So I’ll ask you directly: these are model runs/not the exact future; do you really think that shit streak is gonna have that much influence on this in the end/at go time? The spacing was better on the NAM. If the spacing increases incrementally again on the next run, that may be all we need for this to blossom up toward SNE. And ultimately be closer and not kick East like that? It could definitely keep coming NW bit by bit...but we're running out of time for a large change. We've seen it before, but it's rare. That shitstreak is the reason we're not seeing this be a quick hitting 0.75-1" of qpf over most of SNE. It's possible we end up with something like the RPM where it's 2-4" over a good area with a little zone of higher and maybe far SE MA gets into the real CCB. But it's not like that streak is just going to exert no influence by the time we get to go time. Guidance could be overplaying it by a little bit though which is why we could still see 2-4" as far west as W CT and C/W MA if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why does the precipitation cut off south of ACK and miss the Cape and then develops to the south of NS? Gulf stream of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I would book James for 3-6 or maybe a touch more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: God is that close to something real good If that shitstreak lifted 30-50 miles north we’d be talking 8-12 south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: I would book James for 3-6 or maybe a touch more. If there will be WSW’s, it’s for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If that shitstreak lifted 30-50 miles north we’d be talking 8-12 south of the pike And that is what makes this hobby so damn frustrating sometimes lol. Always a turd in a punchbowl somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It could definitely keep coming NW bit by bit...but we're running out of time for a large change. We've seen it before, but it's rare. That shitstreak is the reason we're not seeing this be a quick hitting 0.75-1" of qpf over most of SNE. It's possible we end up with something like the RPM where it's 2-4" over a good area with a little zone of higher and maybe far SE MA gets into the real CCB. But it's not like that streak is just going to exert no influence by the time we get to go time. Guidance could be overplaying it by a little bit though which is why we could still see 2-4" as far west as W CT and C/W MA if things go right. Yeah I’m on the bit by bit train. I’m not sure that streak goes away, but given the tendencies of models seemingly tick NW last minute, that’s what we might hope for. Perhaps guidance underestimates the western edge of this thing given good forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 My thinking this trends North last minute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I am not buying the jump east, the models are following the convection that explodes as the storm hits the ocean off the Delmarva, the Gulf Stream influence. The 00z suite of models are jumping on a faster negative tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3k Nam gets the precip pretty far north, It has 0.10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I’m on the bit by bit train. I’m not sure that streak goes away, but given the tendencies of models seemingly tick NW last minute, that’s what we might hope for. Perhaps guidance underestimates the western edge of this thing given good forcing. Didn’t say go away...But exert less force on our system due to better spacing like NAM is showing when we finally get to go time. That seems to be happening tick by tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not buying the jump east, the models are following the convection that explodes as the storm hits the ocean off the Delmarva, the Gulf Stream influence. The 00z suite of models are jumping on a faster negative tilt. I have to say that I agree with that idea. We’ve seen this before, and that silly jump East just seems implausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Didn’t say go away...But exert less force on our system due to better spacing like NAM is showing when we finally get to go time. That seems to be happening tick by tick. I guess my question is whether there is a tipping point, where a little shift in the SS allows the storm to come much further west. Or is it equivalent, i.e. a 50 mile change to the SS means a 50 mile change to the storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I guess my question is whether there is a tipping point, where a little shift in the SS allows the storm to come much further west. Or is it equivalent, i.e. a 50 mile change to the SS means a 50 mile change to the storm? I would say at this point, a slight shift in the SS is a huge shift in the storm track. Satellite still shows a mid-level disturbance the main energy for our coastal is still digging southward. I believe we have a benchmark track of the surface low sub 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I have to say that I agree with that idea. We’ve seen this before, and that silly jump East just seems implausible. The East kick is real, I don’t think it’s following convection. The shit streak is kicking it East. It all comes down to how prominent that feature is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: My thinking this trends North last minute what do you have for MA? I don't get your map sorry.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3k Nam gets the precip pretty far north, It has 0.10" here. yeah, gives me 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The East kick is real, I don’t think it’s following convection. The shit streak is kicking it East. It all comes down to how prominent that feature is You don’t know that for sure? That depiction isn’t 100% fact. So that’s my point exactly... How much influence/or your word “prominence” will the streak exert in reality? That seems to be changing across guidance all day today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: what do you have for MA? I don't get your map sorry.. Foxborough and southeast 2-4... coating - 2 inches northwest of that, including Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 That NAM presentation is sexy. James might get a good little storm Anyone care to post the latest RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 There goes the 0z arw2...and that’s the best sref? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There goes the 0z arw2...and that’s the best sref? Buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Arw2 cut back.... pretty significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Arw2 cut back.... pretty significantly I thought we never pay attention to those models, the mesoscale models have been awful with convection developing off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 You know its a rough storm when the RPM, ARWs, SREFS get mentioned more than the more reliable models 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I thought we never pay attention to those models, the mesoscale models have been awful with convection developing off the East Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This has been one crazy thread friends.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Rpm clownmap? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: This has been one crazy thread friends.. Every storm this Early season so far has been crazy...last minute shifts good and bad...so I guess this all fits in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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