The 4 Seasons Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Only 2” here? Figured I’d it’s throwing snow back to NY we’d have done better It's just weak sauce. The SLP has trended weaker and its moving very fast. I mean im just going by the sfc and qpf maps with that thing though so take it as you will, i dont look at that model deeper than that, i don't think anyone does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I’m riding the ukie and it’s 3-6” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Seeing the globals be west of the mesos overall is usually a suspicious thing. Often means globals are wrong from my experience and often happens with fast moving systems like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m riding the ukie and it’s 3-6” here. take the under...the Way under. This winter has that tenor so far. Go low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Seeing the globals be west of the mesos overall is usually a suspicious thing. Often means globals are wrong from my experience and often happens with fast moving systems like this Isn’t the euro both? Unsure about uncle other than to say he’s probably on a bender today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Isn’t the euro both? Unsure about uncle other than to say he’s probably on a bender today I think the UKMET has a tendency to bias too far west at times with weaker coastal systems. It’s the real dynamic bombs it has progressive issues with oddly enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The winter of 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: The winter of 1-3" lol...and even that is tough to come by of late. Euro should crush all hope in about 15 minutes. If I come back after it runs and there's only like 15-20 new posts....I'll know its a miss/dud. If there's 40-50 plus new posts that's a good sign right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: lol...and even that is tough to come by of late. Euro should crush all hope in about 15 minutes. If I come back after it runs and there's only like 15-20 new posts....I'll know its a miss/dud. If there's 40-50 plus new posts that's a good sign right there. You've been out of this threat for a couple days now. Not sure what you're expectation was for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Thru 30hr, looks a bit better then 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro a tiny bit west. Might be one to watch Plymouth over to cape. Mid levels due look ok actually even into ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The mesomodels are focusing the primary low pressure development on a piece of energy on the east side of the circulation. This low comes up the coast in association with the development of convection over the Gulf Stream and it could be primary convective feedback in the Mesos focusing the energy in the wrong area of the overall surface circulation. We have seen these episodes impact the track and intensity of models before one big example was the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard. There have been others. However, the overall development of the h5 energy aloft and the surface pattern favor the western circulation as the H5 energy from the northern stream flies into the overall H5 upper level circulation. This energy should be trying to pull the surface system northwest, not push it out. UKMET does this well, while the Mesos push it out more to the east of the benchmark. You fix this issue and correct it, it should give better feedback to the upper system and allow a benchmark track of a bombing out low undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. This is where the blossoming of the precipitation shield to the west and northwest should occur where the bombing cycle reaches maximum output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Some light snow into SE MA this run. Better shortwave. Potent one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro isn’t bad.... it’s not the ukie... but another positive step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 i get to flurries here on that run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Really pulling for James on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z SPC HREF ensembles show max of 4-6 over the Cape and Islands, but it is still almost 40 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Quite a strong but compact s/w. And you can see the trailing s/w diving in there as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Bob, there is better ridging out ahead of the primary coastal energy shortwave and that trailing shortwave with energy diving out of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic should act to pull the storm into itself, not push it away and in doing so it will explode. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Bob, there is better ridging out ahead of the primary coastal energy shortwave and that trailing shortwave with energy diving out of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic should act to pull the storm into itself, not push it away and in doing so it will explode. The problem is the shortwave near the lakes. It shoves the low east before trying to make it up the coast. The ridge looks nice in the west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro a tiny bit west. Might be one to watch Plymouth over to cape. Mid levels due look ok actually even into ern MA. Sounds like one of those events we stare at radar and I hallucinate progress of the precip shield and North winds leaves BOS with less than 1" and flurries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The NW trend is positive... hopefully we see a few more ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I would honestly bet on a 995mb low on the benchmark, models are trying to latch onto the lead energy that breaks from the overall progress of the upper trough, and tries to catch the convection that explodes on the east side of the low. This should be pushed back west and the 12z EURO is stronger with the surface low when it reaches 40N latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The mesomodels are focusing the primary low pressure development on a piece of energy on the east side of the circulation. This low comes up the coast in association with the development of convection over the Gulf Stream and it could be primary convective feedback in the Mesos focusing the energy in the wrong area of the overall surface circulation. We have seen these episodes impact the track and intensity of models before one big example was the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard. There have been others. However, the overall development of the h5 energy aloft and the surface pattern favor the western circulation as the H5 energy from the northern stream flies into the overall H5 upper level circulation. This energy should be trying to pull the surface system northwest, not push it out. UKMET does this well, while the Mesos push it out more to the east of the benchmark. You fix this issue and correct it, it should give better feedback to the upper system and allow a benchmark track of a bombing out low undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. This is where the blossoming of the precipitation shield to the west and northwest should occur where the bombing cycle reaches maximum output. Phasing is going to be tough given the fast flow. What we are hoping for is there to be enough upstream ridging to slow this thing down just a bit more and have that trailing s/w get close enough to help enhance the preip on the western side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The problem is the shortwave near the lakes. It shoves the low east before trying to make it up the coast. The ridge looks nice in the west though. Bigger problem is the shortwave north of us....it just doesn't allow downstream ridging to feedback on this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Sounds like one of those events we stare at radar and I hallucinate progress of the precip shield and North winds leaves BOS with less than 1" and flurries Yeah I’m not thinking much for you and I. Might be for those who’ve missed out in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 At least we still have the ice storm showing up on most models for CNE/NNE this weekend, because who doesn't love ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You've been out of this threat for a couple days now. Not sure what you're expectation was for this. Silly comment. What's your expectation? Nobody was out or in Bob, it's a transitioning situation for everybody. The Ukie was 1-3 here...I wouldn't call that being out. Everybody could be out if it goes east. Or everyone could be in if it hugs more/gets pulled west at the last minute. I'm certainly not expecting much if anything...but it's not a complete done deal just yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looks like DC is stealing our snow with this one....They need and deserve it depending on how you look at things...still 36ish hours away, so who knows, maybe we all see C-1", it will all be a memory by Friday anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 As Bob Matt and I discussed, if this keeps ticking towards go time.... we could get a few inches here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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