Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Faster NS flow would help See my post above yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Brian, I would take your scenario over Will's to be honest, but either one works, I just think the models have less of a case with the phase then they would with the lead shortwave moving. The potential for a phase is still present, 60 hours out is enough time, plenty of time for the guidance to swing in the other direction, we need a benchmark position with a sub 985mb low. Anything about that intensity will not get us the banding intense enough to get the needed rates for a 6"+ amounts, but if the storm ends up blowing up before the benchmark and is sub-980mbs we will get a huge impactful storm. That disturbance that dives into the trough and tries to phase with the southern branch system is still over the British Columbia, Canadian province. There are less RAOBs out there to get a good enough sample on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Brian, I would take your scenario over Will's to be honest, but either one works, I just think the models have less of a case with the phase then they would with the lead shortwave moving. The potential for a phase is still present, 60 hours out is enough time, plenty of time for the guidance to swing in the other direction, we need a benchmark position with a sub 985mb low. Anything about that intensity will not get us the banding intense enough to get the needed rates for a 6"+ amounts, but if the storm ends up blowing up before the benchmark and is sub-980mbs we will get a huge impactful storm. That disturbance that dives into the trough and tries to phase with the southern branch system is still over the British Columbia, Canadian province. There are less RAOBs out there to get a good enough sample on the system. It’s dead jim except Eastern Long Island And cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 The phasing will occur, it’s just a matter of when and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s dead jim except Eastern Long Island And cape That is where I am from, Outer Cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s dead jim except Eastern Long Island And cape That’s where he lives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: The phasing will occur, it’s just a matter of when and where. If the phase happens sooner, it will be because the northern stream is faster allowing the sooner phase, also the phase happens soon enough if it tilts negative first before hitting the coastline. It is dependent on the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Thanks for the response guys. It does seem odd that tomorrow’s “event” is taking its sweet time getting out of dodge despite the insane fast flow. I wonder if that’s the most likely area to see a correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It depends on a lot of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 21z SREFs did jog back NW... absolutely deadly combo with the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Thunderblizzard said: 21z SREFs did jog back NW... absolutely deadly combo with the RPM I wasn't going to mention them but now that you did, Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I wasn't going to mention them but now that you did, Yes. I just read the 12 29 12 thread, serfs led the way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: It depends on a lot of things. Indeed they do. Just look at the upper level flow off to the northeast right now. Not conducive to a storm coming up the coast at all. It makes tracking these interesting when you are looking upstream and downstream to see what can go right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I just read the 12 29 12 thread, serfs led the way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Indeed they do. Just look at the upper level flow off to the northeast right now. Not conducive to a storm coming up the coast at all. It makes tracking these interesting when you are looking upstream and downstream to see what can go right or wrong. You still have yesterdays in the picture to the NE as well, So yes, A lot of moving parts to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Brian's response was more thorough that mine...I only mentioned the moosefart shortwave but like he said, we can get this to amplify other ways too such as a much stronger main shortwave and allowing the extra Canadian energy to come down and deepen it further. More amplified ridge out west would help because a more amped ridge would slow the flow down...but we come to the chicken/egg with that...does the fast flow prevent those scenarios from happening? The northern front runner wave lifting out quicker seemed a little easier to attain given the pattern but it also goes against today's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Microphone smells like a beer/ Piano Man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I know I'll get weenied for this. But 500 already looks better on the 0z NAM 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Record weenies. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 We can all channel our inner 2015-powderfreak.....the ARW smokes us 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I know I'll get weenied for this. But 500 already looks better on the 0z NAM Yeah, the northern stream lead shortwave is further north and less in the way of the main shortwave that provides our coastal storm energy so that it will amplify more and come west, at least it is better in the firs 24 hours of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Indeed they do. Just look at the upper level flow off to the northeast right now. Not conducive to a storm coming up the coast at all. It makes tracking these interesting when you are looking upstream and downstream to see what can go right or wrong. As interesting as watching paint dry. Actually a little less... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 NAM is looking a lot better with the northern stream lead shortwave and the primary disturbance in the southern stream at 33 hours. A much more amplified 500mb pattern aloft, with a stronger western ridge and a weaker pacific west coast kicker disturbance. This is all leading to a more amplified storm for Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It looks a little better to me though 36....not sure it's going to help a lot but at least it is not a trend worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It is better, Step the right way instead of the opposite, Northern stream s/w digging a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 We better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 00z NAM is slowing the main shortwave, digging the secondary northern stream energy over Central Canada and the western Lakes region. This allows for a better phase to occur earlier, off the VA Capes instead of off the Delmarva coast. We got a trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Pretty good look at 500mb.look at the heights over New England. Flow is not compressed which should allow for system to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Definitely north through 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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