Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Start this up for the 12z runs. overnight runs were waffling back and forth but looks pretty good for southern areas to get some love. Perhaps even up into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 What other brands are showing a hit? I see euro, cmc, gfs as weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What other brands are showing a hit? I see euro, cmc, gfs as weak sauce. RPM love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What other brands are showing a hit? I see euro, cmc, gfs as weak sauce. Yeah.... the NAM is the only guidance showing a real “hit”.The CMC wasn’t bad either Ill be honest... I’m kind of out on 1-2” of slop in January... it’s cool in November, but if it’s just going to mess up my commute.... pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What other brands are showing a hit? I see euro, cmc, gfs as weak sauce. CMC was not weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: CMC was not weak sauce Maybe not for the select few in SEMA but everyone else, weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Rgem was pretty good for SE MA. I actually don't really hate euro/GFS either for that area. There's def some ML magic sig showing up on some of these runs that QPF queens usually ignore. This could still kick east obviously but it's got a legit chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Methinks we jumped the gun by starting this thread before the 12z models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Rgem was pretty good for SE MA. I actually don't really hate euro/GFS either for that area. There's def some ML magic sig showing up on some of these runs that QPF queens usually ignore. This could still kick east obviously but it's got a legit chance. Yeah, ML on GFS looked fine to me regardless of the output on snow/QPF graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Right now, Eastern areas are favored on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 lol, Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Methinks we jumped the gun by starting this thread before the 12z models. 12z nammy already flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 NAM crashing back to earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM crashing back to earth Euro crashed also at 6z. Models are doing a horrible job this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Methinks we jumped the gun by starting this thread before the 12z models. I wouldn't even trust the models a day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z nammy already flatter. I mean, it was so zonked at 06z it wasn't holding serve nevermind go NW. This is def a bigger threat for SE areas than western areas. Thats a really good look for SE MA though with the 700 low closing off over ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Congrats James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z nammy already flatter. You could see it pretty early on too...that low north of the lakes was further east and our energy was further south and slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro crashed also at 6z. Models are doing a horrible job this winter You get a rogue run or two but it’s all fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I wouldn't even trust the models a day out In a fast flow models blow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 We close...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I mean, it was so zonked at 06z it wasn't holding serve nevermind go NW. This is def a bigger threat for SE areas than western areas. Thats a really good look for SE MA though with the 700 low closing off over ACK I’m not expecting more than an inch here. It’s a SEMA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro crashed also at 6z. Models are doing a horrible job this winter Fast flow...I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up mostly a miss when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Methinks we jumped the gun by starting this thread before the 12z models. Sampling of pacific shortwave with 12z I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, it was so zonked at 06z it wasn't holding serve nevermind go NW. This is def a bigger threat for SE areas than western areas. Thats a really good look for SE MA though with the 700 low closing off over ACK Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Maybe it will be a big dump in Foxborough just like last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Ahh the jumpers are back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ahh the jumpers are back. TB mehing his way to 4-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe it will be a big dump in Foxborough just like last night. Glad I bet heavy on Tenn just like I’m betting heavy this is NBD for everyone outside SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The main shortwave is pretty impressive this run. Quite close with the 06z run...biggest difference is the shortwave that causes the snow showers tomorrow morning hangs back longer and limits downstream ridging prior to the Tuesday night shortwave. That has been a feature that is shifting with almost every single run. Probably why we're seeing so much flip flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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