Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: I'd love to believe the snow maps (they show a nice even around FXBG) but the fact that most models have temperatures spike up to around 38-45 tomorrow before precip gets to I-95 gives me a lot of pause, even with lower dewpoints to start we only get down to about 32-33 along 95. Feels like an event that starts as rain or a rain/snow mix and transitions to snow just before precip shuts off leaving like maybe a slushy half inch on grassy areas. Would love to be wrong and I'm definitely hoping for precip to start as early as possible. I agree strongly. I think the only places that have a shot at 1" and/or slushy roads are out near frederick/Hagerstown down to Winchester, Front Royal and further SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: I'd love to believe the snow maps (they show a nice even around FXBG) but the fact that most models have temperatures spike up to around 38-45 tomorrow before precip gets to I-95 gives me a lot of pause, even with lower dewpoints to start we only get down to about 32-33 along 95. Feels like an event that starts as rain or a rain/snow mix and transitions to snow just before precip shuts off leaving like maybe a slushy half inch on grassy areas. Would love to be wrong and I'm definitely hoping for precip to start as early as possible. the cold air is fairly deep so although surface temps are not great the dews and 850s are solid to this untrained eye. it should be solid snow tv and reaffirm why we love this hobby. we will be pinging you for obs as you should be part of the first wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: the cold air is fairly deep so although surface temps are not great the dews and 850s are solid to this untrained eye. it should be solid snow tv and reaffirm why we love this hobby. we will be pinging you for obs as you should be part of the first wave. Yeah you would need to look at temp profiles from the surface on up. If that warm layer is shallow and near the ground, and with dewpoints low as Wes said, then those temps can fall like a rock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 ALL IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 ICON made a notable move in the juicy direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah you would need to look at temp profiles from the surface on up. If that warm layer is shallow and near the ground, and with dewpoints low as Wes said, then those temps can fall like a rock. Agreed, just would rather not waste precip getting temps to cooperate here along 95, but where we are headed, any snow is great. This has a feel of a rush hour WWA for the 95 corridor though too, out your way should be a decen 1-3 type WWA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This is actually looking better than what I expected even yesterday...I'm thinking 1" is a good call for here. Obviously west of 95 looks best given the temp profile. I'm all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z RGEM is pretty tasty. 2 inches + throughout the entire DC metro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z RGEM is pretty tasty. 2 inches + throughout the entire DC metro. What about here. I don’t live in the DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What about here. I don’t live in the DC metro We are looking good for at least 2 inches IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z RGEM is pretty tasty. 2 inches + throughout the entire DC metro. The temperatures are "interesting." Has Culpeper at 16 degrees at 7AM tomorrow morning and 36 by noon falling back to 33 when precip moves in. I-81 corridor mostly below freezing when precip moves in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2001-02 had one winter storm(i think it was 3 inches) in early January and we never saw cold or snow again that winter. I had to drive to freaking Elmira, NY in march to see some snow(got 10 inches lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Only way my yard can eclipse an inch is if it's hot and heavy. like .2-.3 in 2-3 hours. There seems to be a legit chance for that to happen so maybe it's not crazy to expect 1" in the closer burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 These are the RGEM temps at the onset of precip. Those of us in the Shenendoah Valley are looking really good for this one IMO. Most of the models are starting to juice up a little bit as we get closer as well. Someone is gonna grab 3+ inches in the 81 corridor: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2001-02 had one winter storm(i think it was 3 inches) in early January and we never saw cold or snow again that winter. I had to drive to freaking Elmira, NY in march to see some snow(got 10 inches lol) Is that right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS looking juicy with snow totals from ROA to CHO strip of 3-5 albeit temps very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: These are the RGEM temps at the onset of precip. Those of us in the Shenendoah Valley are looking really good for this one IMO. Most of the models are starting to juice up a little bit as we get closer as well. Someone is gonna grab 3+ inches in the 81 corridor: The RGEM for us was a touch drier than the 6z run. First model to do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The RGEM for us was a touch drier than the 6z run. First model to do that. I have to work in Harrisonburg tomorrow. Looks like the perfect spot to be for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS comes in a touch wetter, so good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS Kuchera cuts totals in half for most, but still rather optimistic numbers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Anniversary of the Blizzard of '96 today. The big daddy. Uh, the grandson at best. The paterfamilias was March ‘93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 ‘rippin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Still a half decent sounding at onset of the heavier QPF along and west of I95. Consistent with the potential for rippage even if brief. ETA: here's the sim radar panel that coincides with the sounding. Legit rippage going on in places (like the most important place...my yard) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS Kuchera cuts totals in half for most, but still rather optimistic numbers Look at the pivotal weather snow depth product, it usually provides a more realistic forecast with marginal temps. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: This could be the biggest storm of this sad season lol Definitely for Fairfax County. We have had about ½ inch total this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still a half decent sounding at onset of the heavier QPF along and west of I95. Consistent with the potential for rippage even if brief. ETA: here's the sim radar panel that coincides with the sounding. Legit rippage going on in places (like the most important place...my yard) I'll be driving to Reston for my doctors appointment at this time. Looks like fun perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Short term Rippage for me and Wonderdog in w. PWC based on that sounding Bob posted. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Too bad there’s not a sim radar for 15z through 18z on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Should we be looking at the Globals or the Mesos at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This looks like it’s going to be mostly a function of where the heaviest precip sets up. That always makes me uneasy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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