CAPE Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just keeps improving. I guess WSW are coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I guess we start seeing evidence of this on radar later today?...It’s been a while since I’ve seen U.S. radar this quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Trends are nice as far as how things have improved. Still need to keep expectations low due to the usual caveats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 yay a slushy inch! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It does seem to have improved over time. While it’s slowly slipping away from me, it should be a nice little thing for everyone else while I’m watching from the other side of the glass just a few miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Nice little event for the 81 crew. 2 Inches would do a lot to cheer everyone up before we roast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This could be the biggest storm of this sad season lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: This could be the biggest storm of this sad season lol you saying you already see the back edge made me chuckle because its true. Moving so fast we will see it coming and leaving without much upside surprise like over running or some other long duration event. still snow is snow so game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 As usual, ill be in a bad spot for this one...east baltimore county on the bay in this situation equals no bueno. Ill be lucky to see a slushy dusting on grass. But you folks that may get 1"...enjoy, I suspect thats mostly around I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: This could be the biggest storm of this sad season lol You mean this sad season that is nowhere close to being over? Not even halfway. But I agree, this is moving toward our best event. Just wish it could scoot in a few hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 SREFS? 11z NAM? Mid hour CRAS? Anybody with updates? NEED updates!!!! LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Not a bad trend as far as temps go as precip moves in. Could be partially due to the slightly faster onset the euro has at 06z but the panels before show the same trend. The key imo is having the cloud deck already established near or shortly after sunrise....May be tough with such a compact system and this not being an overrunning event. The further WSW you are the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I’ll take those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z NAM basically same as 6z, maybe a bit more robust. Best precip stays DC South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z NAM basically same as 6z, maybe a bit more robust. Best precip stays DC South. Not bad at all, evening rush on Tuesday will be a mess though. Not looking forward to that, will definitely leave Pentagon early or perhaps telework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Not bad at all, evening rush on Tuesday will be a mess though. Not looking forward to that, will definitely leave Pentagon early or perhaps telework. I'm guessing it'll be a mess only because of how people react here to anything (especially snow) falling from the sky. I would guess that road conditions should be relatively okay unless it really rips fatties during the burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3k is lighter but with the same general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm guessing it'll be a mess only because of how people react here to anything (especially snow) falling from the sky. I would guess that road conditions should be relatively okay unless it really rips fatties during the burst. Agree, it's the people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z NAM basically same as 6z, maybe a bit more robust. Best precip stays DC South. Not to overload the page with maps, but the 12z is a pretty solid improvement over 6z, IMO. 12z: 6z: same with the 3k. Both made positive steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 NAM actually takes most of the area up to 40 tomorrow ahead of the precip (low to mid 40s in southern MD) but has strong cooling as the precip arrives to bring most areas down into the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not to overload the page with maps, but the 12z is a pretty solid improvement over 6z, IMO. 12z: 6z: same with the 3k. Both made positive steps. Yeah, definitely better than 6z. But still...for some reason, I don't trust the NAM. For some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, definitely better than 6z. But still...for some reason, I don't trust the NAM. For some reason. LOL. Dude, trust the NAM. Probably the best model out there ... after the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I hope the NAM keeps on juicin. By happy hour, we could all be staring down a small but solid event. Let’s hope the positive trends continue. ETA: Yes. I know it’s the NAM. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Apologies if this has been posted, but here is 6z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM actually takes most of the area up to 40 tomorrow ahead of the precip (low to mid 40s in southern MD) but has strong cooling as the precip arrives to bring most areas down into the lower 30s. I think the dewpoints tomorrow at 12Z are forecast to be in the upper teens west of the city and around 20 in the city so the cooling looks real especially if we get close to 09.25 " in 3 hours or so. That's a pretty good thump. Still, I'd only go with a coating to an inch aroudn the city and maybe 1 to 2 out west even though the models are showing the most precip south of us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Don't think we've had to bust these maps out all year! Here is the UKMET, for those who care. Surface temps don't cooperate anywhere outside the BR but 850s are solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6z EURO has surface temps around 33-34 in DC metro at the height of the “storm” (0z Weds) with temps dropping below freezing a few hours later as precip tapers off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'd love to believe the snow maps (they show a nice event around FXBG) but the fact that most models have temperatures spike up to around 38-45 tomorrow before precip gets to I-95 gives me a lot of pause, even with lower dewpoints to start we only get down to about 32-33 along 95. Feels like an event that starts as rain or a rain/snow mix and transitions to snow just before precip shuts off leaving like maybe a slushy half inch on grassy areas. Would love to be wrong and I'm definitely hoping for precip to start as early as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm expecting nothing more than possibly getting to watch a little light wet snow fall. That's it. We've gotta take what we can get lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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