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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

We are always searching for that perfect pattern but I bet more then half, if not 2/3rds of our snow come in flawed, if not severely flawed patterns. Maybe I should ask @psuhoffman, he always seems to have the numbers. :) 

My snow study was 5”+ events, which is what most of us are really chasing when we break down patterns long range because minor events can sneak into almost any pattern. This one wouldn’t have shown up because I used BWI. But I did identify every 5”+ storm in my area and I can tell already just from knowing the patterns we were in certain years that we can luck into a 5-6” storm here in almost any pattern the way DC/Balt can luck into a 1-2” event. But for us it’s a 8”+ event that would yield similar results to the 5”+ ones for Baltimore.  I saw a lot of 5-7 type events in overall meh patterns but once you get to 8+ most of them featured a good look. 

But a big portion of our snow doesn’t even come from 5”+ events. I will have to run the numbers but I would guess at least half our snowfall comes from snows less than 5” and they can pop up in most looks with a lot of luck. 

8 hours ago, Interstate said:

I mean I don’t know what you are looking for. I do not know of anyone who thought that downtown Washington or Baltimore was going to receive any accumlations. 

Stop being a dick. 

1 hour ago, H2O said:

For many people(myself included) that were in the DC S&E areas of I-95 this one wasn't as fun as other near miss snows.  Again, the concern some had yesterday morning about lack of clouds and sun was warranted.  I'm not sure there were as many model runs that had DC and other places absolutely torch prior to the onset of precip.  If it was a few hours faster like the people in SW VA benefited from then I bet all of us would be rejoicing.

I started the morning at 28F prior to sunrise.  By the time precip started it was 46 IMBY.  That was just too much 925s to overcome.  It didn't flip for me until after 2pm which for many it had been ripping for hours and mainly had the luxury of temps helping. 

I understand location and climo.  Probably more than most of you.  So when models had my area for 1" or so I always know the challenges.  What grinds most of the gears for the people who see less snow isn't that we don't know what the odds are.  We just don't need that one extra thing to make it that much harder to get snow.  Yesterday was soaring temps.  That clearly delayed the flip.  Once I did I still had temp issues of only getting to 33F.  So it was mostly white rain.  Despite that, if I wasn't battling 40s at the start I would have seen a few more hours of snow even if it melted.  Thats what most of us wanted.  Just to have snow falling.  

So I got .5" yesterday.  Not just because of location and elevation.  Those are constants.  Yesterday's lower total was due to clouds not getting in soon enough, temps soaring, and the column not being able to overcome it.  

The UHI effect does seem to be getting worse. I don’t know if it’s the extra push from climate change or the expanding urban corridor but lately every 50/50 type setup breaks bad. 

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really hard to get an accurate reading on what I got with the squall around 7 due to the winds but am going with 1.25" which is more then likely low. Looking at radar and it looks as if I will have another one roll in shortly.

That could be too low. I'm going with 2 here.

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

That’s sick, route 97 near Bachmans Mill this morning was a complete white out, plus there was all that snow blowing off the trees making matters worse. Sidenote, 97 stinks this morning both north and south of Westminster

97 and 75 and Middleburg Rd in Carroll County have been clusters since last night.  

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