Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: The difference between the NAM and globals is all contingent on the timing of the low transfer to the coast. With an earlier transfer off NC coast, the southeast low level flow is much stronger over the eastern areas and the H7 VV's are much more favorable for banding potential on the NW side of the low. For both the GFS/Euro, the best lift concentrated to the west with the parent low and H5 vort pass providing better difluence across WV and western VA. Extension further back to DC area due to the surface low is going to be harder to come by unless we get that surface low tucked in closer to the coast. So rooting for baroclinic setup to be a little closer to shore would be best case, along with the NAM earlier transfer. The mid-level dry air advection at Hr 60, onward will also dissolve the western extent of the precip field as the trough pivots through the region. It's a tight window and the best chances for snow right now would be out toward central and southern WV, SW VA, and the Delmarva due to the better precip enhancement from the secondary low center moving to the northeast. Hopefully the NAM is on to something with the earlier transfer. Thanks, good explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The majority of the area lives east. The minority doesn’t care 3 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Only people that are going to like the 18Z NAM are on the Eastern Shore. Congrats Salisbury. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 NAM 18Z WB: the new DR. NO except for our SW VA and Eastern Shore friends. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: NAM 18Z WB: the new DR. NO.. except fir our Eastern Shore friends NAM LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Only people that are going to like the 18Z NAM are on the Eastern Shore. Congrats Salisbury.8” for Salisbury, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: NAM 18Z WB: the new DR. NO.. except for our SW VA and Eastern Shore friends . Looks like even the snow tv is slipping away on the NAM. I love that show but it’s never on anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The last time drastic changes started showing up on the NAM was the anafrontal deal if I’m remembering correctly and it ended up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 NAM is LOL. That will be 90% rain on the eastern shore, esp the lower shore. Might be some wet flakes at some point but this thing is going to be racing through and redevelopment will be mostly offshore. AND no cold air to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Well this is falling apart quickly. Wasnt the slp running west of the cities just 36 hours ago or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3km NAM looks a tad different, and more believable. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 GFS says wait and watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I've never felt good on this one but it seems so unusual with how compact it is. Shortwaves like this are typically better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 GFS looks a lot like the 12Z Euro. I will take those two over the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS says wait and watch this Looks about the same as 12z. Seems there will be some sort of a transfer, and the coastal low will be offshore, and racing away. Not likely there will be much more than a coating anywhere outside of the mountains to our W/SW at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Mount Holly's updated AFD on this "threat"- As we move into Tuesday, the day will start off quiet as high pressure moves out to sea and weakens. This will allow for an area of low pressure to move offshore of the Mid Atlantic region to our south by Tuesday afternoon, then strengthen as it moves northward offshore of Delaware and New Jersey coasts. This will likely bring a period of precipitation across the area, especially along and south and east of the I-95 corridor, and mainly across southern New Jersey, southern Delaware, and southern Maryland. If the precipitation begins early enough, it looks like it will start as rain for many areas. However, as the low wraps up as it moves closer to the area, colder air will wrap around the low and the precipitation will likely mix with or change over to snow. While all of the guidance indicates a transition to snow, only the 12z NAM has a significant accumulation. For now, we`ve sided more with the GFS, ECMWF, WPC and have mostly a half inch or less. Temperatures may be too warm for significant accumulations to occur, even though there could be a period of heavier snow due to strong lift within the dendritic zone across southern New Jersey, southern Delaware, and southern Maryland. eta- when they refer to "southern MD", they mean the southern most extent of their MD eastern shore counties, i.e. Talbot and Caroline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I would take that and run even if for mere minutes. Any darker blue over my house and it would be magenta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well this is falling apart quickly. Wasnt the slp running west of the cities just 36 hours ago or so? 3 days ago it was west of the mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Examples, not prediction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Examples, not prediction Translation, English preferable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Examples, not prediction NWP. Hows the DCA temperature sensor working these days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z EURO is looking solid. Snow everywhere at 51. 18z RGEM was also a nice run... but its the RGEM at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO is looking solid. Snow everywhere at 51. 18z RGEM was also a nice run... but its the RGEM at range. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Solid improvement over 12z. Still might have to make the trip to CHO. It's a quick storm so verbatim it kinda rips there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Solid improvement over 12z. Still might have to make the trip to CHO. It's a quick storm so verbatim it kinda rips there. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Arlington to CHO for three inches? Could be the only 3” I see this season. More than likely I wouldn’t actually go, especially if we get an inch here. But it’s tempting. I rent a house down there so it wouldn’t be like sitting in a dorm. Could be nice. Besides, me going to Charlottesville means it would snow more up north. It would benefit everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Now that’s the spirit. Sometimes you have to take one for the team. Patients it will spread NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Patients it will spread NE Actually I agree. That trajectory will give real snow tv despite the accumulation factor. Should be a good show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm getting the toy ready just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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