Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am still considering it. My hesitation is the high bust potential no matter where the "jackpot" is, as it is a marginal event in coverage, qpf, and temps. 3km suggests I should head towards Rehoboth lol. You’re really gonna chase for this piece of crap? It’s not even worth the time. There will be something better to chase than this eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: You’re really gonna chase for this piece of crap? It’s not even worth the time. There will be something better to chase than this eventually I have time off work, and I do mini road trips all over this time of year. Given the absolute shiit pattern coming up, yeah I could definitely work it in to my plans. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Considering it’s the drunken NAM brothers I like where we sit. Some of us anyway. Better than up to PA hoping for south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have time off work, and I do mini road trips all over this time of year. Given the absolute shiit pattern coming up, yeah I could definitely work it in to my plans. Driving around for simple fun and sightseeing of any kind is really fun and relaxing. Doing it with a Hemi makes it even better 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: And u were going to chase northwest I still can. Gettysburg! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Driving around for simple fun and sightseeing of any kind is really fun and relaxing. Doing it with a Hemi makes it even better Yup. Unfortunately I gave up my SRT. But driving a leased Overland with all the creature comforts and a powerful(relatively speaking) V6 ain't too bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Both NAMs are showing a transfer now with slp off obx and that's the root of the SE jump. Something to watch on other guidance to see if it's nams being nams or something legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 that transfer can be a killer. Collapses the precip toward the new low. Interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Driving around for simple fun and sightseeing of any kind is really fun and relaxing. Doing it with a Hemi makes it even better With the traffic and the way people drive these days I can’t say I agree lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs is close to the nams qpf placement fwiw I noticed that last night and they were a red flag when they never were enthusiastic for that anafront wave threat back in December and were right. Remember last winter the FV3 was too amped up almost every time. And the euro is often too amped also (it’s still the best we got but if it’s in error that is usually how). Just a caution flag. But there are a lot of discreet issues to be resolved in a fast flow so more model flip flops might be ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1-3" between NAM ICON and GFS for SW VA at 12z by hr60 beggers can't be choosers with the way this winter has gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Milton, DE for a tour of the DFH brewery it is! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs is close to the nams qpf placement fwiw The GEFS placement is a bit excited to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: The GEFS placement is a bit excited to say the least. 12z GFS looks impotent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z GFS looks impotent. It should whiten the ground for some of us. With 528dM nearby you think we’d have some decent dendrite growth for the bit of moisture there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I just saw 2 snow flurries in Brunswick. See you in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 A few stray fluffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 mangled flake Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: A few stray fluffs Goes to show you don’t listen to PSU or Bob when they tell you 65 times we’re in a shutout pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: 1 mangled flake Woodbridge Send it my way. I’m on a hunt for fatties 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Send it my way. I’m on a hunt for fatties You can have half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Come on down and visitSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Slight decrease in totals. Might need to travel down to Charlottesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Slight decrease in totals. Might need to travel down to Charlottesville. Have to wonder if in part the CHO totals are related to earlier start time or the transfer of moisture to the coast. Still rather that look with snow coming in from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Have to wonder if in part the CHO totals are related to earlier start time or the transfer of moisture to the coast. Still rather that look with snow coming in from the SW. I like the SW spread of snow to NE also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Hi res Euro looks pretty different from the NAM for west of DC. Around an inch and half for the majority of the area to the west. Edit: I meant to say different. I am out of practice when it comes to posting on the site due to the lack of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hi res Euro looks pretty similar to the NAM for west of DC. Around an inch and half for the majority of the area to the west. The majority of the area lives east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The majority of the area lives east. East of 95? Didn’t know that actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The difference between the NAM and globals is all contingent on the timing of the low transfer to the coast. With an earlier transfer off NC coast, the southeast low level flow is much stronger over the eastern areas and the H7 VV's are much more favorable for banding potential on the NW side of the low. For both the GFS/Euro, the best lift concentrated to the west with the parent low and H5 vort pass providing better difluence across WV and western VA. Extension further back to DC area due to the surface low is going to be harder to come by unless we get that surface low tucked in closer to the coast. So rooting for baroclinic setup to be a little closer to shore would be best case, along with the NAM earlier transfer. The mid-level dry air advection at Hr 60, onward will also dissolve the western extent of the precip field as the trough pivots through the region. It's a tight window and the best chances for snow right now would be out toward central and southern WV, SW VA, and the Delmarva due to the better precip enhancement from the secondary low center moving to the northeast. Hopefully the NAM is on to something with the earlier transfer. Edit: I should add that the rooting for the earlier transfer is more for the city gang and further east. Those west of the fall line out to I-81 will probably want what the Euro is showing with the solid vort pass and difluent area as the trough pivots eastward. This is a setup that is tricky to get everyone involved. Someone will likely be left out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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