Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i get that everyone is at their ends with no snow these days, but can we try and make better posts? You're asking a lot of these folks, mappy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Coming down good now. IYBY?! Are any pigs flying yet? In all seriousness congrats. Currently 40/23 at IAD at 10:57am est on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Where are the clouds? Did the rainstorm vanish? Its coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You in Stephens City? If so, there is little if any lag between returns and ground truth. Interesting... Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Radar looks like it will start to light up once east of the mountains. Waiting for the 11am update but quite the uptick between 9am and 10am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Temp peaked around 38. At 36.8/10.6 so I have no temp concerns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville. Thanks for taking the time to do this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1/7: Federal offices in the Washington, DC area status: Early Departure 4 hour staggered early release all employees must depart no later than 1:00 PM. https://t.co/XNpFS40aXT https://t.co/4UsMzYfwwA 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 47/23 imby 45/22 DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Temp seems to have stopped going up after reaching 42F. Returns are close. Bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Deck Pic said: 47/23 imby 45/22 DCA That area of PC skies this morning did some damage. Chips fall time. Hope you get some heavies today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise? Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression? Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Frederick conditions IMBY 35.9/25 cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt. Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol. Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings. It happens somewhat frequently in marginal events. Especially NYC where being right on the coast can torch their boundary layer with an easterly wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 47/23 imby 45/22 DCA I seem to have topped off at 44. Hasn't budged in 30 minutes and solar is headed down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, yoda said: I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise? Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression? Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind At this point there's plenty of data to think about and understand how that applies to each person's yard. My climo nearly always puts me in the middle on these types of deals. 1-2" is where my head is at. A clean 2" would be quite a victory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise? Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression? Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind I’ve been thinking of that storm today. Was mid/upper 40s ahead of precip and precip started as snow IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 32/21. Per radar, I shouldn't have too long to wait for the snow to begin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 47/23 imby 45/22 DCA Prime snow temps. Once we get down to 40 at 5:30 pm, the getting will be good. I'm at Navy Yard with a stout 5 feet elevation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: At this point there's plenty of data to think about and understand how that applies to each person's yard. My climo nearly always puts me in the middle on these types of deals. 1-2" is where my head is at. A clean 2" would be quite a victory. I'm always conservative and really don't like putting a boom or top end scenario I've thought from jump 1/2" - 2" for here. Sounds like it will be pretty for awhile even if not accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Wild clouds!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Down in Harrisburg. They have around an inch and a half. And perfect dendrites falling here. Beautiful winter day! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 MDZ003-004-503-504-VAZ052-053-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-071800- Washington-Frederick MD-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON... Radar and surface observations just before 11 AM indicated a sudden onset of heavy snow moving across eastern West Virginia, northern Maryland and portions of northern Virginia. Visibility was dropping from unrestricted to a half mile or less in the span of 15 to 30 minutes, with snowfall rates of over one inch per hour reported. This heavy snow is expected to reach Highway 15 by 11:30 AM, and approach Interstate 95 by 1 PM. Remain alert for rapidly changing visiblities and quickly deteriorating road conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The Lawn down at UVA is looking good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt. Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol. Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings. Happens all the time as somebody who grew up in the city. During transitions, it can be snowing at the top level of a tall building and raining at The surface. Only lasts a minute or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Getting dark...I consider that a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I love when LWX says such filthy things 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Where your heads at for this one @osfan24 @WxUSAF Are we going to have to slant stick our way to 2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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