Chris78 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The event depicted on the cmc would make alot of people happy. Well except for maybe @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 CMC and NAM combo is pretty much money. Never been wrong. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Good news is cmc is inch per hour rates. Bad news is it's the cmc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: Lol, Woodbridge with big hit That's like a micro version of last year's storm that gave BWI 4.8 but DC a foot!! Ouch (for here, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Not sure it means all that much but the GEFS came in friendlier. Nothing amazing but a widespread half inch or a bit more for close burbs, past runs were basically a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's like a micro version of last year's storm that gave BWI 4.8 but DC a foot!! Ouch (for here, lol) Looking to see at least some snow tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Dr no says no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 00z EURO says meh for I-81 corridor... everyone else gets little W and C MD actually do okay (as in HGR and westward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z EURO says meh for I-81 corridor... everyone else gets little W and C MD actually do okay (as in around HGR and westward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12K NAM 6z wants to turn this thing into a decent event as it heads into the SNE. Haven’t seen clown maps yet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: Dr no says no Well, every time the Euro has trended better up till 60 hours while other guidance played the role of Dr No we have failed, so there's that. Maybe the roles are reversed for this one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Our Tues storm and what to expect will probably come down to how 3 packets of energy/shortwaves are handled as they progress eastward through the CONUS. Using the overnight Euro to show you what I mean. Probably somewhat hard to see with this map but what we have are 3 shortwaves embedded within the trough below. Looking at the vort map will give you a much clearer picture of where these shortwaves are located. Now what we see in our region will be dependent on how these three packets interact/don't interact as they progress eastward. What we saw with the overnight Euro run is that there was pretty good cooperation between the three. Though it wasn't the cleanest of phases we did see energy packet 2 drop down on top of #3 over Oklahoma. Packet (2+3) then progressed eastward to where we then saw #1 drop down (again not the cleanest of phases) into it over W Kentucky/W Virginia. This cooperation between the energy helped to create a deeper drop of the 500's into the shortwave as well as a quicker turning of the shortwave as to where we were seeing it reach neutral status in the mid-west going negative through our region. The repercussions of the changes in the 500's on the surface with our storm can be seen below. Note that we are seeing stronger low pressures that have been shifted northward over the previous 18z run which is to be expected given a more favorable 500s for storm intensification. Now seeing a stronger system is a double edged sword. It gives better rates to help overcome the lower level warmth for those that can stay in the snow sector but it also will tend to pull a system farther north compared to a weaker low. And you can the results of this below. Note that we are not only seeing better snows to the N and W due to the better rates but we are also seeing a decent swath to our NE as the low intensifies quickly enough to pull it up the coast vs. the previous run with the weaker low which headed OTS. Looking over other models we are seeing quite a variance with how they want to handle these 3 packets of energy. Pretty much goes to show that what to actually expect come Tuesday might very well be close to a game day call. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: 12K NAM 6z wants to turn this thing into a decent event as it heads into the SNE. Haven’t seen clown maps yet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 NWS not impressed two days out with the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: NWS not impressed two days out with the potential 2 big problems with this event for decent accumulations- bad set up for getting the surface cold enough- outside of dynamics, which could happen given the latest trends- and it's a fast mover. At this point there is a decent chance some places NW of the fall line will see a solid coating to a couple inches. The trend towards a deeper system could up that potential. I see no shot for the coastal plain unless there are some dramatic changes. Surface is simply too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 @showmethesnow Did I mention I am considering a chase of this meager snow event? Your house looks like a good locale. Looking forward to 'celebrating' while sipping on a bourbon barrel aged WWS. I can direct you where to go for the acquisition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Latest EUROWB 6z...2 inch line shifted a little eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 ^6z Euro is a tad south and colder. Probably some good snow tv to a light coating along I-95 verbatim. Nearby mountains and the hills up near PA line are clearly in the best position to pick up a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ^6z Euro is a tad south and colder. Probably some good snow tv to a light coating along I-95 verbatim. Nearby mountains and the hills up near PA line are clearly in the best position to pick up a couple inches. Exactly...even out here I can see how this plays out. Without elevation any accumulation will be in the last hour or two of snow falling....= slushy inch or so on non paved surfaces. Only chance lower elevations have is if this juices up some as we we approach game time. .2" qpf only works if it's cold smoke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Exactly...even out here I can see how this plays out. Without elevation any accumulation will be in the last hour or two of snow falling....= slushy inch or so on non paved surfaces. Only chance lower elevations have is if this juices up some as we we approach game time. .2" qpf only works if it's cold smoke... At least you have a short drive up the mountain if it fails in your yard. I drove up to Washington Monument State Park back before Xmas and it was a winter wonderland above 1000 or so feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At least you have a short drive up the mountain if it fails in your yard. I drove up to Washington Monument State Park back before Xmas and it was a winter wonderland above 1000 or so feet. I make that my back way to/from work in situations like this. lol While the creak valley has a slushy inch there can be 2-3" up there. A temporary soul soother. It's too bad this didnt move in just before sunrise. Euro has temps in the mid 20s at 7am but 40 by 10am. Maybe a thick cloud deck at sunrise will play out and temps struggle to rise much...long shot imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: I make that my back way to/from work in situations like this. lol While the creak valley has a slushy inch there can be 2-3" up there. A temporary soul soother. It's too bad this didnt move in just before sunrise. Euro has temps in the mid 20s at 7am but 40 by 10am. Maybe a thick cloud deck at sunrise will play out and temps struggle to rise much...long shot imo. Or the precip gets here 6 hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 ^ Not sure that would help. The air mass in place ahead of the storm isn't very cold- the cold temps in the AM are a function of long night/radiational cooling. The only high pressure around is a weak ridge moving off the east coast- that is not good for cold air advection. Look up north - nothing but low pressure. So temps will warm as the storm approaches and starts to deepen along the coast. The low level 'cold' comes in behind with the deepening trough, but it is a relatively low qpf, short duration event, so its too late for the lowlands. Pretty textbook for some modest wet snow for inland/elevated areas as currently advertised. eta- if the low is a little deeper/slower, and tracks a bit more to the SE, there could be a better outcome, as showme discussed in his post earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Man somewhat surprised to see this in the am. Bob and everyone were right where if we are going to get something it's going to show up last minute and not be modeled well because of the s/w's ripping through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: SE forum special on the 12K nam . @C.A.P.E. should like lol too bad it's the 12k NAM. When the EURO has that outcome I will be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: SE forum special on the 12K nam . @C.A.P.E. should like Jeez it trended to the SE forum. Guess I must take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Lol. The southeast part of OUR forum Ha. Saw that. Same result for me unless that white blob over my house means jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Jeez it trended to the SE forum. Guess I must take a look The low track is further SE on the 12k NAM and is a bit stronger, so if it went that way it could work out. It is a compact storm so not likely to make everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 lol check out the 3km NAM. The NAMs are so utterly useless at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: And u were going to chase northwest I am still considering it. My hesitation is the high bust potential no matter where the "jackpot" is, as it is a marginal event in coverage, qpf, and temps. 3km suggests I should head towards Rehoboth lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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