MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, no snow obs in grass. Here's a reason to still be positive. This is the mesoanalysis from SPC at 10am. Closed low in SW VA and NW NC with pressure falls in VA/NC and a convergence line south of Richmond. Here is the 14z HRRR at noon. Is there any world in which you can look at the current analysis and think that the low is going to be on the central WV/VA border? Even better, here are the 10am obs from W/SW VA. Forget the p-type and look at the wind direction. The HRRR thinks that all of these locations should have E to SE winds right now. It just isn't handling the low correctly. So, it looks like the NAM is too cool ahead of the storm, but the HRRR isn't going to have the right track. It is better to have the track than the temps right now. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 39/25 in west Timonium (21093) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 32/24 -- nice cloud cover, awaiting meatballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 in Harrisonburg area ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 LOL the GFS has a middle finger of rain right through the DC area at 12 hours on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: 32/24 -- nice cloud cover, awaiting meatballs and if you want the spaghetti with those meatballs, check out www.spaghettimodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, wxtrix said: 10 am update to my WWA: * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected over portions of eastern West Virginia and western Maryland, and 1 to 3 inches over portions of northern Virginia. Nice! 42 here in A-Town ballston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 MoCo has joined the list of school jurisdictions closing early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just got notice my kids are coming home early. (hoCo schools) NWS calling for 2-4” for the colder NW zones. Thinking 2” here should be about accurate based on OBS to our Sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 First flakes falling. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: First flakes falling. Where Stephens City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: LOL the GFS has a middle finger of rain right through the DC area at 12 hours on the 12z run. There's just no way thats rain... 36F surface with a -3C 925mb? Maybe white rain, but no way thats plain rain. IF (and a big IF) these models have the temp profiles right, I think many of them are missing the mark with p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: LOL the GFS has a middle finger of rain right through the DC area at 12 hours on the 12z run. That UHI algorithm is a bitch. I think it overdoes it a bit. Has rain all the way up to the Montgomery/Frederick Line. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Topper just mentioned potential for thunder on Twitter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Where Stephens City? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: That UHI algorithm is a bitch. I think it overdoes it a bit. Has rain all the way up to the Montgomery/Frederick Line. Sure. It actually looks like a middle finger though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Just got notice my kids are coming home early. (hoCo schools) NWS calling for 2-4” for the colder NW zones. Thinking 2” here should be about accurate based on OBS to our Sw You JUST got notice??? The kids and staff have known for 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Topper just mentioned potential for thunder on Twitter. That'd be nice... but I don't think there will be any MUCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Topper just mentioned potential for thunder on Twitter. There were some lightning strikes in E TN this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 First flakes arriving, 36/20 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Where are the clouds? Did the rainstorm vanish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Coming down good now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt. Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol. Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Coming down good now. You in Stephens City? If so, there is little if any lag between returns and ground truth. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 i get that everyone is at their ends with no snow these days, but can we try and make better posts? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i get that everyone is at their ends with no snow these days, but can we try and make better posts? You're asking a lot of these folks, mappy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Coming down good now. IYBY?! Are any pigs flying yet? In all seriousness congrats. Currently 40/23 at IAD at 10:57am est on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Where are the clouds? Did the rainstorm vanish? Its coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You in Stephens City? If so, there is little if any lag between returns and ground truth. Interesting... Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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