Baltimorewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 HRRR still consistent on temps getting into the mid 40s this afternoon and a mostly rain event for I-95...my temp is currently 34. I have to go with my gut and say I miss out on this one. Good luck guys out west/southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Guess it was to be expected, but this system has pretty much morphed into a Fall line special (95 and N and W). Fully expect to see the death band to set up where we typically see it (PSU land hooking around S and W). Probably see 4-5 inches, with a jackpot or two of 6, through this region as we should see some 12-1+ ratio snow. There is one thing that could possibly knock these totals down somewhat. And that is if they were to lose some of this to low level warmth and rain considering that the precip comes in hot and heavy from the start. Really don't expect to see that except for maybe a few spritzes initially. Cities are probably good for an inch or two as well though they could surprise if we can limit the low level warmth before the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 28 here. Trends on all guidance overnight and early this morning is a further north track, maybe outside of the Euro. It is cold now, but temps will warm today ahead of the developing low. With a further north/closer in track, the low level warmth will take longer to displace SE of I-95, and time is short for this one. Looks like a good thump for N central and maybe NE MD this evening. Looks very meh here with maybe a brief period of snow at the end. I should have stuck to my original plan and chased lol. Still might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Brunswick 29/16. It will be fun taking the 4:25 train home from DC, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Guess it was to be expected, but this system has pretty much morphed into a Fall line special (95 and N and W). Fully expect to see the death band to set up where we typically see it (PSU land hooking around S and W). Probably see 4-5 inches, with a jackpot or two of 6, through this region as we should see some 12-1+ ratio snow. There is one thing that could possibly knock these totals down somewhat. And that is if they were to lose some of this to low level warmth and rain considering that the precip comes in hot and heavy from the start. Really don't expect to see that except for maybe a few spritzes initially. Cities are probably good for an inch or two as well though they could surprise if we can limit the low level warmth before the onset. The 6z gfs isn't done yet, but from the 0Z, the column for BWI looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 North trend is bothersome for those(me) just S of the beltway in VA. I’m sure my temps will torch prior to precip and make it difficult to wet bulb down. The struggle to flip will be real. Enjoy all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 28 here. Trends on all guidance overnight and early this morning is a further north track, maybe outside of the Euro. It is cold now, but temps will warm today ahead of the developing low. With a further north/closer in track, the low level warmth will take longer to displace SE of I-95, and time is short for this one. Looks like a good thump for N central and maybe NE MD this evening. Looks very meh here with maybe a brief period of snow at the end. I should have stuck to my original plan and chased lol. Still might. What!!! You aren't chasing? Bought the beer and had a guest room setup for you. Guess I will have to drink that quality and expensive beer on my own then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 From 0z. Shows the big thump too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 First legit snow of the season here locally, I’m pumped; sticking with 1-2” here with amounts closer to an inch than two. We’ll hit the low 40s before precip kicks in and we wet bulb. I’m sure there will be lots of complaining posts but if you’re along/East of 95, set your expectations now to see a rain/snow mix at onset. Won’t be surprised a favored spot NW hits 5” but it’ll be very localized. ETA: got to a low of 31 even inside the Beltway south of the fall line so that’s encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Loudoun closed which means PWC isn’t far behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 34.0/20.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 21 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The 6z gfs isn't done yet, but from the 0Z, the column for BWI looks pretty good. 06Z looks a little rough. Looking 95, DC up to Balt, before onset we are seeing deeper low level warmth (Above 0, 925mb and down) vs what I saw on previous runs of between 975-950 mb. Sort of looks to me that it is taking the initial thump to cool the column down and by the time it does that the best lift has already exited the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Hopefully everyone gets a piece this afternoon...something smells fishy in Denmark about this one though. I'm ready for whatever falls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 29/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 28/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 37 minutes ago, mappy said: This is what I am expecting. They will decided by 10am, I’ll leave at noon and be on the couch and in pjs before 1pm ready for snow That would be great, but elementary will be getting out right in the middle of it. I hope Fairfax Co closes early, but I still packed my gloves, scraper and brush last night. I work in HS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Clouding up ahead of sunrise here. Hopefully can keep it colder by a degree or so...in marginal setups every bit counts along/East of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 24/22 overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 What a surprise. Everything shifted NW of AA country. That never happens. I'll enjoy my cold rain today while I wait for summer to start this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The biggest issue I see on the latest GFS run is that it has backed down on the lift through central MD that we were seeing on prior runs. Not sure I buy it though when I look at the latest 3K Nam and especially the 12K. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Clouding up ahead of sunrise here. Hopefully can keep it colder by a degree or so...in marginal setups every bit counts along/East of 95. Hopefully. I'm skeptical given the direction the mesos and the hrrr are heading. You know this isnt my 'home' region but I enjoy contributing and conversating...but I'm 20 miles NW of Philly and sweating it up here. Another tick N or warmer BL and we're toast. Hoping forcing and heavy rates can give all of us a car topper at the very least. GL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hopefully. I'm skeptical given the direction the mesos and the hrrr are heading. You know this isnt my 'home' region but I enjoy contributing and conversating...but I'm 20 miles NW of Philly and sweating it up here. Another tick N or warmer BL and we're toast. Hoping forcing and heavy rates can give all of us a car topper at the very least. GL! People can say it sucks and I guess it does a lot, but the HRRR has been rock steady since yesterday on temps being too warm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Woke up at 3 am to 31 degrees. Have risen a degree and am now sitting at 32. Probably the result of the cloud cover moving in overhead that I could see just starting to obscure the moon as it was setting when I woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 26/23 Burke, VA - ready for a 1 day special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: People can say it sucks and I guess it does a lot, but the HRRR has been rock steady since yesterday on temps being too warm Didn’t it show the entire area not going below freezing last night? I thought that’s what I read 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 was 28.3/23 when i left the house. Praying that clouds race in right after sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Didn’t it show the entire area not going below freezing last night? I thought that’s what I read It had the typical colder pockets getting below freezing but yeah most areas without elevation were at or above freezing. It was correct for me...I haven’t been below 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That would be great, but elementary will be getting out right in the middle of it. I hope Fairfax Co closes early, but I still packed my gloves, scraper and brush last night. I work in HS. A 3hr early dismissal would be 1230 for elementary kids. 2hr, 130 dismissal. Both reasonable I think given timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: It had the typical colder pockets getting below freezing but yeah most areas without elevation were at or above freezing. It was correct for me...I haven’t been below 34. Its 27 here. My elevation is 60 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: It had the typical colder pockets getting below freezing but yeah most areas without elevation were at or above freezing. It was correct for me...I haven’t been below 34. I'm actually stunned my temp was below 32. I never do that. I UHI like Australia does wildfires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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