aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this They are following the NWS cues in my opinion. And with no WWA in the immediate metro they have no reason to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: WWA expanded eastward to I95 corridor... but doesn't include Charles/PG/AA/Spotsy/Stafford/DC metro Always best when LWX plays catch up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Sweet! WWA! Something must be happening. Not sure. Can’t tell. Seems murky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Always best when LWX plays catch up. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 MDZ003>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-506-WVZ051-071045- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...northeastern and central Maryland as well as the Baltimore Metropolitan area. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 3 PM and 6 PM Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially northwest of Interstate 95 into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-half mile at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ027>031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050-052-053-055-071045- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-071045- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally 3 to 5 inches across the higher elevations. * WHERE...The central Shenandoah Valley, Blue Ridge Mountains, Potomac Highlands of Virginia, and portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 11 AM and 2 PM late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially around midday Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-quarter mile at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ051-052-502-071045- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Southern Fauquier- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Culpeper, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Southern Fauquier Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 2 PM and 5 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially northwest of interstate 95 Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Currently 35/21 after a high of 51 here in Timonium, west of I83.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ050-071045- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Orange- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are possible, especially around midday Tuesday into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-half mile at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun. 31/19 NW of Winchester. You better get on 11 and stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love the little critters that just pop up. It’s like severe season for us, the sneaky setups with low expectations are our best events. Yes, I’m using the term “us” and “our”. I’m still part of this subforum. #WxFam Feels great to track an event again. Seems like Bristow may rescind his reservation request. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Updated AFD from LWX should be out shortly... should be a good read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Feels great to track an event again. Seems like Bristow may rescind his reservation request. Hopefully I can cancel without penalty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You better get on 11 and stay there. Yeah. If 81 is crushed I will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Interesting that the precip trajectory, or at least on the snow maps for the NAM’s changed to more ne to sw from the earlier w to e tilt. They also expanded the heavier precip a good deal to the nw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, yoda said: WWA expanded eastward to I95 corridor... but doesn't include Charles/PG/AA/Spotsy/Stafford/DC metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Tell me about it......31/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: What? Fairfax/PW/Baltimore/Montgomery are i95 corridor and in WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No more worry about being fringed though ..anyway . 3knam went from sunny skies here at 6z to fringed at 12z and bumping north steadily. Should be fun everywhere in central Md tomorrow through south central pa. I’ve been a downer all day over this...but 18z was pretty good. So I’m becoming more optimistic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Also, thank goodness yoda pastes the advisory texts, I’d never know what they say otherwise 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain overhead overnight. Low pressure will move quickly northeast across the region Tuesday. Another area of high pressure will transit the region Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front approaches on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure has settled overhead and it will remain overhead through late tonight. There will be some high clouds ahead of approaching low pressure, but the cloud deck will be thin. Therefore, radiational cooling is expected and min temps are expected to drop into the 20s for most areas to the 30s in the urban areas and near the waters. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While the shortwave itself won`t be large in areal extent, it will be a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy snow can`t be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow morning and toward northern VA/central MD/eastern WV Tuesday afternoon. As a result, we`ve upped snow totals and raised Winter Weather Advisories for most locations northwest of Interstate 95. For the suburbs of Washington into the Baltimore Metropolitan area, temperatures will be well above freezing to start and this does lower confidence in the forecast. However, the warm layer will be thin so latest thinking is that evaporative cooling and dynamical cooling from heavier precip rates should overcome that warm air. This is why these areas were added into the advisory. Farther south and east confidence lowers due to even warmer conditions preceding the event. Having that been said, a period of accumulating snow is even possible in DC into the southern and eastern suburbs. Also, the Winter Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into western Maryland and the Allegheny Highlands of eastern WV. Across these areas confidence is lower due to a higher criteria 3" for advisories and the fact that the gradient will be near these areas. Having that been said, an impact from accumulating snow is expected. In terms of timing, precip is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast, with snow starting across southwestern portions of the forecast area after 8 AM. In any given spot, the snow should only last 4-5 hours, but as was previously mentioned, could come down at a moderate to heavy clip during that time. Expect the snow to move into the metro areas for the mid-late afternoon hours. Temperatures may briefly climb into the upper 30s to near 40 before the precipitation starts, so can`t rule out it starting as a brief period of rain or mixed rain and snow. However, it should quickly change to all snow as the lower atmosphere wet bulbs back into the lower 30s. The only area where it may stay rain for most of the event will be across far southern MD. Snow will be moving out of the Washington and Baltimore areas during the evening commute, but temps may drop below freezing Tuesday night and with west/slushy roads in place there may be some icy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Just about no one I spoke to knows anything about this snow, which is now less than 18 hrs out. Could be a mess. Ingredient #1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Have been watching this. Advised the husband about the timing. He is thinking he may not go in tomorrow as his car is RWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chase said: Ingredient #1 Blame the local Mets, they will play catch up but by then it’s to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Temp not dropping very fast here, Ji must be breathing heavily 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now Lol did you see me trolling them today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now I think it's legit and may actually end up too low. Most guidance shows 850 temps approaching +15 here. Saturday and Saturday night are likely toasty, and Sunday could be too if the GFS solution is too fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1”/hr rates as progged by the mesoscale models will quickly overcome the BL issues, even some main roads. It won’t take much this time of the year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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