Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: MoCo/HoCo Deathband Bullseye clearly visible. Lol GFS has a better area of .40 qpf. I'll toss the RGEM for now. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I would be shocked if there are not early dismissals. There have been for much, much less threatening events. Agreed. I think with the lack of snow to this point and the long range not all that threatening that we will see the usual suspects close for the day. Looking at you PWC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS a touch drier out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Agreed. I think with the lack of snow to this point and the long range not all that threatening that we will see the usual suspects close for the day. Looking at you PWC lol PWC will close tonight. I’d place bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Agreed. I think with the lack of snow to this point and the long range not all that threatening that we will see the usual suspects close for the day. Looking at you PWC lol IDK. Late start and unenthusiastic NWS might preclude a full day off. We shall see. My experience has been later start times than advertised. Until we can see it on radar I’m not totally sold. Anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: 3k / Gfs combo for Carroll county works I was just looking at the sounding for 18z. We're both getting raked with fatties. Like 5 runs in a row with big omegas. 18z GFS expands the area northward. Surface quickly drops to near freezing right after this panel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k / Gfs combo for Carroll county works guess I'm visiting my GF in Sykesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: guess I'm visiting my GF in Sykesville “Yeah, I’m coming over. We don’t need to talk or anything. Just save me a window seat.” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: guess I'm visiting my GF in Sykesville Sort of a Real Man of Genius but for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Good luck, everyone. I love that sounding, Bob. Hoping y’all get an overperformer. It could be a surprisingly heavy snowfall for a time with big dendrites/aggregates. DGZ is at a great level, column is plenty cold with no dumb warm noses, and lift/omegas are rockin'. My inner weenie is happy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k / Gfs combo for Carroll county works Starting to look real nice for us and a lot of others. Text output on GFS for Westminster is exactly .40 qpf. if we start ripping temps up near us will be colder than currently shown. I could see 29-30 easily if it's S+. Fingers crossed for an over performer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Scraff said: MoCo/HoCo Deathband Bullseye clearly visible. Lol I'm glad the models are recognizing that at short range. Leeetttt'ssss goooooooo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It could be a surprisingly heavy snowfall for a time with big dendrites/aggregates. DGZ is at a great level, column is plenty cold with no dumb warm noses, and lift/omegas are rockin'. My inner weenie is happy. Would be hilarious if this January ended up above average snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 come on guys...let's start discussing how soon it will all melt now...in fact let's talk about 65-70 degrees on Saturday before the snow hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 3k Hourly snowfall rates tomorrow afternoon in the DC / N. Va areas 1.5"/hr 18z gfs h7 FGEN says central MD whiteout. hee hee 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Mappy said everyone was getting white rain. Stop lying to us with all the images. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice!! ..Darn...meant to look at the Fgen ...nice catch Can I trouble you for a quick explanation of that map? Not familiar. Frontalgenesis? Best lift in the red area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Weve come along way in a few days 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: come on guys...let's start discussing how soon it will all melt now...in fact let's talk about 65-70 degrees on Saturday before the snow hits. I’m playing in an “polar golf scramble” on Saturday. I want a foot of snow tomorrow and 80 on Saturday. But I’ll settle for 6 inches tomorrow and low 70s Saturday. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'm glad the models are recognizing that at short range. Leeetttt'ssss goooooooo All in! Praying for a “no slant sticking” event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The euro from dec 29 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This storm reminds me of a very poor man's 2011 commutageddon or maybe the December 2013 event that hit Baltimore and Philly (minus the changeover). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: The euro from dec 29 Nice! I remember people were talking about something around the 7th-8th after Christmas. I noticed this a lot in 2014 and 2015. The Euro would show a storm 10 days out, lose it in the mid range, and then bring it back a few days before. Hopefully we can count on the next one that Bob mentioned for the 17th-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Nice! I remember people were talking about something around the 7th-8th after Christmas. I noticed this a lot in 2014 and 2015. The Euro would show a storm 10 days out, lose it in the mid range, and then bring it back a few days before. Hopefully we can count on the next one that Bob mentioned for the 17th-20th. What we are getting is nothing like what that map shows. This may be the smallest storm I’ve ever seen. I’ve seen thunderstorm complexes bigger lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m not disagreeing, but the dropping dew point temps have my interest. Down to 20* at bwi and iad, 19* at York, and 18* @t dca. Heavy rates could be fun. 56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It looks like only surface is near or above freezing while snowing. Column is good. Recall March 2018 and that was March 21st. I’m jaded to these events, where we need temps to drop as precip comes in. Always takes longer than we all hope. 23 minutes ago, snowfan said: Mappy said everyone was getting white rain. Stop lying to us with all the images. I’m being a pessimist, I’ll admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Can I trouble you for a quick explanation of that map? Not familiar. Frontalgenesis? Best lift in the red area? 700mb frontogen and UVV (vertical velocity) panels show where the best lift is located in the mid and upperlevels. Confluent flow and lift is the mechanism for precip. The more robust the heavier precip. Different levels are important for understanding snowgrowth. I'm not well versed there with the exception of 700mb UVV/frontogen being the most important for big beautiful dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 700mb frontogen and UVV (vertical velocity) panels show where the best lift is located in the mid and upperlevels. Confluent flow and lift is the mechanism for precip. The more robust the heavier precip. Different levels are important for understanding snowgrowth. I'm not well versed there with the exception of 700mb UVV/frontogen being the most important for big beautiful dendrites. Thank you. Based on that map you should be elected the mayor of Fattie Town tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Thank you. Based on that map you should be elected the mayor of Fattie Town tomorrow. I'm already working on new material for the obs thread. Things like "dendrites are so fat they're setting off car alarms" and stuff. I'll say this.... if these soundings and fronto panels are right, it's going to be quite a show for some people tomorrow. Might be best rates since Jan 2016... 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I have a question. Why is there no surface low showing up on guidance? Rotation is clearly there at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Caveat of "it's the HDRPS" aside, this run seems reasonable. Even starts the metro off as rain for realism's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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