Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event


MountainGeek
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, LP08 said:

These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in.  Should be snow but accumulations will be tough.

ecmwf_full_2020010612_036_39.0--77.25.png

ecmwf_full_2020010612_030_39.0--77.25.png

I’m certainly no sounding expert but I would think with heavy precip those cold temps just above the surface get pulled down quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m certainly no sounding expert but I would think with heavy precip those cold temps just above the surface get pulled down quickly.

Definitely.  I don't see any precip issues.  I think under the heaviest we can get to freezing and fluctuate a degree or two depending on rates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

i love you weenies that post snow maps and get excited about it -- most of yall are getting white rain

I can live with that if it's not the usual white rain I get where I have to strain my eyes to notice precipitation is falling. The hot and heavy arrival followed by quick exit is much more fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, LP08 said:

These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in.  Should be snow but accumulations will be tough.

ecmwf_full_2020010612_036_39.0--77.25.png

ecmwf_full_2020010612_030_39.0--77.25.png

Edit:  Not saying we won't accumulate.  They Euro is a degree or two colder at the surface than the GFS.

Wow, where did you get that data!?

eta: When did Pivotal add soundings to the eruro?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting to see a pretty tight cluster of solutions across all guidance. Euro/gfs are basically lock step now... Seems like a best case scenario is showing up under 48 hours...

would be funny if we got 3 today. 6 inches on Jan 31....and finished with above snowfall month with temps at +11

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the things I like about these runs is the increasing low level flow out of the southeast leading into the system. This has helped really moisten the lower column, allowing minimal time for the boundary layer to have to moisten up with the onset of precip. We should see precip fall very quickly once the returns are overhead. 

Also, the H7 VV's on models are pretty significant across the area during the peak of the storm. There will be solid 6 hr period of solid lift across the Shenandoah and areas to the NE before we see precip tapering off. When the flow shifts to the NW, that'll be the time frame when you know the snow will be coming to an end in a few hours as dry air filters in behind the departing low. General 1-3" for areas impacted, but higher elevations in the BR and the valley's of VA could easily see 3-5". A nice little event incoming :)

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

This is one of those events where MDOT lays down a billion tons of brine unnecessarily to avoid having to cut their budget next year.

Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads.  The change also affects their contractors.  Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government.  The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads.  The change also affects their contractors.  Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government.  The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems.

Good to hear and I hope VDOT is following suit

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads.  The change also affects their contractors.  Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government.  The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems.

too little too late for all that. damage already done to my well because of it. 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain.

:ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads.  The change also affects their contractors.  Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government.  The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems.

That's great news. I've always thought that it's an unbelievable waste of money and damages the waterways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Good to hear and I hope VDOT is following suit

VDOT and DC DOT are reviewing MDOTs policy and how it is assessed for compliance by contractors.  At least on paper, the program is solid and has been used elsewhere in the northeast.  The plan has two tiers, one for events like the one forecast to occur and other's where at least 8 inches of snow is expected. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I love how NOAA 10% chance is still <1".

What a joke. I think given the current guidance since last night... it's pretty clear that over an inch (even slightly) is a 1 in 10 chance possibility, imo

image.thumb.png.52b29ca2e421e6fd66412e54bc5b8bfa.png

The updated package will be out in 1-2 hrs. That's still from the morning package prior to newer guidance. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...