psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: We are always searching for that perfect pattern but I bet more then half, if not 2/3rds of our snow come in flawed, if not severely flawed patterns. Maybe I should ask @psuhoffman, he always seems to have the numbers. My snow study was 5”+ events, which is what most of us are really chasing when we break down patterns long range because minor events can sneak into almost any pattern. This one wouldn’t have shown up because I used BWI. But I did identify every 5”+ storm in my area and I can tell already just from knowing the patterns we were in certain years that we can luck into a 5-6” storm here in almost any pattern the way DC/Balt can luck into a 1-2” event. But for us it’s a 8”+ event that would yield similar results to the 5”+ ones for Baltimore. I saw a lot of 5-7 type events in overall meh patterns but once you get to 8+ most of them featured a good look. But a big portion of our snow doesn’t even come from 5”+ events. I will have to run the numbers but I would guess at least half our snowfall comes from snows less than 5” and they can pop up in most looks with a lot of luck. 8 hours ago, Interstate said: I mean I don’t know what you are looking for. I do not know of anyone who thought that downtown Washington or Baltimore was going to receive any accumlations. Stop being a dick. 1 hour ago, H2O said: For many people(myself included) that were in the DC S&E areas of I-95 this one wasn't as fun as other near miss snows. Again, the concern some had yesterday morning about lack of clouds and sun was warranted. I'm not sure there were as many model runs that had DC and other places absolutely torch prior to the onset of precip. If it was a few hours faster like the people in SW VA benefited from then I bet all of us would be rejoicing. I started the morning at 28F prior to sunrise. By the time precip started it was 46 IMBY. That was just too much 925s to overcome. It didn't flip for me until after 2pm which for many it had been ripping for hours and mainly had the luxury of temps helping. I understand location and climo. Probably more than most of you. So when models had my area for 1" or so I always know the challenges. What grinds most of the gears for the people who see less snow isn't that we don't know what the odds are. We just don't need that one extra thing to make it that much harder to get snow. Yesterday was soaring temps. That clearly delayed the flip. Once I did I still had temp issues of only getting to 33F. So it was mostly white rain. Despite that, if I wasn't battling 40s at the start I would have seen a few more hours of snow even if it melted. Thats what most of us wanted. Just to have snow falling. So I got .5" yesterday. Not just because of location and elevation. Those are constants. Yesterday's lower total was due to clouds not getting in soon enough, temps soaring, and the column not being able to overcome it. The UHI effect does seem to be getting worse. I don’t know if it’s the extra push from climate change or the expanding urban corridor but lately every 50/50 type setup breaks bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Its one of those years it just wants to snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 suns out. 1" new from that squall. more dropping south out of PA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really hard to get an accurate reading on what I got with the squall around 7 due to the winds but am going with 1.25" which is more then likely low. Looking at radar and it looks as if I will have another one roll in shortly. That could be too low. I'm going with 2 here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Got absolutely rocked from that squall. Driveway has a nice snowpack again after I cleared it last night 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: That could be too low. I'm going with 2 here. Hard to get an accurate reading but it’s at least that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Hard to get an accurate reading but it’s at least that. Right. Could easily have been 2.5 or even a bit higher. I think we were ground zero for the squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, mappy said: suns out. 1" new from that squall. more dropping south out of PA Over how many minutes did you receive that inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 My house went from this, to this, in literally 7 minutes. Got in on a little yellow returns, and I wasn't there to see it. :-( 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Video during the squall https://imgur.com/gallery/my11iPi 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, George BM said: Over how many minutes did you receive that inch? probably an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Video during the squall https://imgur.com/gallery/my11iPi Awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Snowing here in greenbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Video during the squall https://imgur.com/gallery/my11iPi That’s sick, route 97 near Bachmans Mill this morning was a complete white out, plus there was all that snow blowing off the trees making matters worse. Sidenote, 97 stinks this morning both north and south of Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: That’s sick, route 97 near Bachmans Mill this morning was a complete white out, plus there was all that snow blowing off the trees making matters worse. Sidenote, 97 stinks this morning both north and south of Westminster 97 and 75 and Middleburg Rd in Carroll County have been clusters since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 97 and 75 and Middleburg Rd in Carroll County have been clusters since last night. Crazy to think that 31 looked just fine compared to those, does it look fine closer out into New Windsor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really hard to get an accurate reading on what I got with the squall around 7 due to the winds but am going with 1.25" which is more then likely low. Looking at radar and it looks as if I will have another one roll in shortly. Picked up another .6" in about 30-35 minutes with the second squall. Neat little storm as it was predominately popcorn snow and only towards the tail end did we see it flip over to fluffy dime sized flakes. 28 minutes ago, HighStakes said: That could be too low. I'm going with 2 here. I am thinking you are right especially when I see the totals some have gotten around me. Caught me by surprise so I really didn't have a chance to set up an area for measuring. Just hate claiming something I can't verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Crazy to think that 31 looked just fine compared to those, does it look fine closer out into New Windsor? When I left the FD around 4:30 31 was fine. We had some weird freezing fog until around 1am and it just slicked everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Picked up another .6" in about 30-35 minutes with the second squall. Neat little storm as it was predominately popcorn snow and only towards the tail end did we see it flip over to fluffy dime sized flakes. I am thinking you are right especially when I see the totals some have gotten around me. Caught me by surprise so I really didn't have a chance to set up an area for measuring. Just hate claiming something I can't verify. Well this puts a couple of you guys near 7” for this event as a whole. Models have squalls through the afternoon, and I’m watching that batch in PA. A respectable 5.25” west of Minster with a fresh half inch from the squall that just moved through. Interested to see how much more a few of us could tack on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Snowing in Annapolis. Big flakes but doesn't appear to be sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 @psuhoffman I think your map ended up verifying well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman I think your map ended up verifying well. Thanks. Was an inch too high right along the rain snow line maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 19 hours ago, Mrs.J said: 1” over here in Frederick. I was surprised how little seemed to be on the ground going to work off 85. Didn't get an official measurement but easily 2.5-3" at about 530' in New Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Still have 0.5 in shaded spots. Bare in son. Really wonderful down in the park 4:30 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 hours ago, arlwx said: Fairfax schools just closed, to join Culpeper, Fairfax (for students), Fauquier, Fredericksburg, Loudoun (for students), Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Rappahannock and Madison. The UHI area (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church) is on two-hour delays. Went back and forth from home to the Virginia Square area this morning. Striking how much of a winter wonderland it looks like once you get west of EFC metro vs down by Ballston and the interior Arlington Orange Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Went back and forth from home to the Virginia Square area this morning. Striking how much of a winter wonderland it looks like once you get west of EFC metro vs down by Ballston and the interior Arlington Orange Line. Got off the train at L’Enfant this morning to nothing but bare ground. I wasn’t surprised at all, but it’s shocking to see the difference between there and home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 A bit late, but here's a couple of photos I got from yesterday's event (love the 17-50mm lens!!!). Right around 1.5" snow where I'm at... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 15 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Just got a chance to post this . I had 90 minute ride to my service call in Harford County early this morning that I was late for because I didnt want to miss the squalls lol. But this was taken at a old baseball buddy of mines house not far from me on Motter rd. https://imgur.com/gallery/NDwYAoj That’s definitely 3”/hr stuff. I had to pull into someone’s drive off Bachman’s mill when I journeyed to the squall. Was driving down as the visibility began to drop, then snow from a tree came and must have covered the entire car. Car went sliding and luckily 10 seconds later when I could see again I found myself on the opposite side of 97. Let’s be thankful no one was coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 A decent minor/mod event for the area....hopefully a cheap appetizer for whats to come. @WVclimo Looks like our obs match up pretty well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 17 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Just texted a friend of mine in Fairfield, Pa and she had thunder and lightning while it was snowing this am ...if only lol Just got home and the wind is really picking up . 36/18 This mornings squall... https://imgur.com/gallery/NDwYAoj I can confirm the thunder. Never saw the flash up my way but what a wild squall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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