Solution Man Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Good to see the board light up 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Still 43F here lol. I’m still skeptical but I guess I’m a pessimist You're in a tough spot there with virtually no elevation and 43° Bay water all around. But this one has a lot of cold throughout the column and QPF has been increasing for your area all day. Hope you can join in the accumulations tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 33/17. Temp dropping quickly here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM 3km looks fine. On the 12km NAM, the striking thing is the below freezing temps down to 975mb. If that holds, it won’t matter a bit what the surface starts at. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro and 00z NAM both get DC about 0.45” QPF...heavy rates will easily overcome surface temps. And just above the surface is cold so the rates will bring down those colder temperates to the surface too. #weenie NAM looks like it extends the snow way further north into PA than the 18z NAM or Euro did. Probably because it's the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: NAM 3km looks fine. On the 12km NAM, the striking thing is the below freezing temps down to 975mb. If that holds, it won’t matter a bit what the surface starts at. I don't like the super sharp edge but other than that, hard to complain. Down to 38/18 in NW Arlington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun. 31/19 NW of Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 More rain before this frame, but that is a nice sh-lacking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: More rain before this frame, but that is a nice sh-lacking! This is a Commuteageddon loop. Geez. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, mappy said: 38/20 after a high of 48 Almost the same even here in the city--39 (I think we hit like 52, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun. 31/19 NW of Winchester. I'll bite. Where are you getting that the NAM ratios are 11-12:1??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: I'll bite. Where are you getting that the NAM ratios are 11-12:1??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nam is drier IMBY, but I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: More rain before this frame, but that is a nice sh-lacking! Interesting how the r/s line follows the 534 and not the 540. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Apparently it’s 3° (33F) colder than what was expected (36F) right now. I don’t trust it, but maybe a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This is realistic and should be a better indicator especially in marginal situations. Still a nice little treat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Well, I aint mad at the NAM. I'll take my slushy inch and call it victory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ah, so it's a Kuchera-derived product. And I missed that you were referring to areas well west of DC Metro. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM looks like it extends the snow way further north into PA than the 18z NAM or Euro did. Probably because it's the NAM NAM is finally getting a clue imo. A s/w and slp track like the NAM has shown along with the forcing shouldn't have been drying out like it was showing prior to the 18z runs. Maybe overdone on totals(?) but the qpf depiction given what I mentioned finally make sense. It's not like it's running into a dry 1059mb hp wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: Ah, so it's a Kuchera-derived product. And I missed that you were referring to areas well west of DC Metro. Thanks! This is at 18z btw... so DC metro snow is just getting going at the time with that image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The one thing with this storm is that when the precip moves into the area, it'll come in hot and heavy. First precip may start as rain for some (Mainly DC south and east), but as precip intensifies, we'll see sufficient wet bulbing with boundary layer temps falling quickly below freezing. Lift during the afternoon will be stout with H7 VV's very impressive for a short period across NoVa through Central MD between 18-00z. H7 wind field indicates a finger of 50-55 kts out of the southwest across north-central VA sliding east through MD and the Delmarva. This is some prolific moisture enhancement right near the DGZ in tandem with the strong lift focused overhead. This is why models, despite showing precip only 4-8 hrs max, showing 2-4" now across the region. There will be embedded banding structures within the main QPF shield, adding to the localized precip max we typically see with these types of setups. I don't see stickage to pavement being a problem almost anywhere (Maybe DC at the start). This should be a wintery scene over the area. Look forward to living vicariously 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is realistic and should be a better indicator especially in marginal situations. Still a nice little treat: While I agree that positive snow depth change is useful to compare with 10:1 maps, I agree with WxUSAF’s comment earlier that it may be a little underdone. It’s not like its 36 with light precip falling over 7 hours. A middle ground between 10:1 & snow depth change is probably a little more realistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 First signs of precip diving south over Missouri and developing over Central TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just about no one I spoke to knows anything about this snow, which is now less than 18 hrs out. Could be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Just about no one I spoke to knows anything about this snow, which is now less than 18 hrs out. Could be a mess. Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this was about to say the same thing from what I am seeing this looks like 3 inches area wide and heavy rates for about 2-3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This may be the first snow to surpass an inch here. OFC, this is my soul speaking from the graveyard. I could be looking at a couple inches above my grave at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 WWA expanded eastward to I95 corridor... but doesn't include Charles/PG/AA/Spotsy/Stafford/DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I don't even want to imagine what the commute tomorrow night is going to be like even if roads are just wet. A heavy burst of snow potentially centering on 3-6pm...I"m already in the car for 1.5-2 hours ONE WAY a day. Going to be a fun day of radar tracking tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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