psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 By the time the HRRR is in “useful” range you’re better off just using real time observations and radar to make adjustments to more reliable guidance and figure it out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 36/22 in Hoodbridge 33.4 in this wretched snow hole. Impressive fall of temps however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just dropped into the 30s. 39 and 7 more to go. Or 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 33/19 here in Stafford just NW of FXBG. Very nice temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Also the sun won’t be nuking the accumulation since were still at near a minimum of solar radiation. Yea but after Betelgeuse explodes tomorrow it’s not sun angle we have to worry about, we’re talking nova angle! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This is a legitimate event for us. The 500 pattern looks good. Ridge out west is in the right place, the 500 trough is deepening as it crosses the Appalachians, heights falling as it crosses to our south, coastal even pops closer to the Delmarva. It has room to become more than what it is but rates will be there. I’m usually pessimistic on here, but this is a threat. West of 95 has a legit shot at 2-4, with 1-2 from about Fairfax to DC. Wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the subforum got 5”. 14 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I’m already down to 36.7 degrees just west of Fairfax city. It’s been steadily declining for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 46/21. Bring it on!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 39/26 in Shirlington 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The NAM is just itching for a good Namming. I can feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 35/19 Burke, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 38/20 after a high of 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 00z HRRR held serve. It is on an island with wanting to keep the first low intact for much longer, leading to a warm ESE fetch. The other models all kill off that low early so that we get a nice track just S of Richmond. Sometimes the HRRR wins. I’m not betting on it here. 41.5/21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The NAM is just itching for a good Namming. I can feel it Thought we had one. You want a better one? Greed is good. Greed works. I just PMed the super for PWCS. Give him my perspective. 32.1/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 35/17 after a high of 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The other models all kill off that low early so that we get an awful track just S of Richmond. FTFY as a richmonder...kinda... but outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Forecast wet bulb temperature profiles definitely look colder at low levels than a few days ago, with 18z NAM and GFS profiles below 0C everywhere above the immediate surface layer (see BWI forecast sounding below). A deformation zone between 800-600 mb is aligned relative to the temperature gradient such that there will be frontogenesis-induced lift within this region. Vertical motion in this layer will have pretty good overlap with temperatures favorable for dendritic growth, with the subsequent aggregation of these dendrites producing relatively large, low-density ice particles. These low-density particles should help to increase snow-liquid equivalent ratios, though surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing could counteract these enhanced ratios somewhat. It will be interesting to follow this tomorrow, and I kind of wish I had planned ahead to telework! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 35/24. Optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, heavy_wx said: Forecast wet bulb temperature profiles definitely look colder at low levels than a few days ago, with 18z NAM and GFS profiles below 0C everywhere above the immediate surface layer (see BWI forecast sounding below). A deformation zone between 800-600 mb is aligned relative to the temperature gradient such that there will be frontogenesis-induced lift within this region. Vertical motion in this layer will have pretty good overlap with temperatures favorable for dendritic growth, with the subsequent aggregation of these dendrites producing relatively large, low-density ice particles. These low-density particles should help to increase snow-liquid equivalent ratios, though surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing could counteract these enhanced ratios somewhat. It will be interesting to follow this tomorrow, and I kind of wish I had planned ahead to telework! I don’t understand 90% of this but I think I like it! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 33/14. Temp is dropping like a rock here. Lost 4 more degrees in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Forecast wet bulb temperature profiles definitely look colder at low levels than a few days ago, with 18z NAM and GFS profiles below 0C everywhere above the immediate surface layer (see BWI forecast sounding below). A deformation zone between 800-600 mb is aligned relative to the temperature gradient such that there will be frontogenesis-induced lift within this region. Vertical motion in this layer will have pretty good overlap with temperatures favorable for dendritic growth, with the subsequent aggregation of these dendrites producing relatively large, low-density ice particles. These low-density particles should help to increase snow-liquid equivalent ratios, though surface temperatures at or slightly above freezing could counteract these enhanced ratios somewhat. It will be interesting to follow this tomorrow, and I kind of wish I had planned ahead to telework! I agree it's one of those events where dynamics will win out, increase those ratios and give that area more than advertised. We'll see will surely be fun to watch tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: 33/14. Temp is dropping like a rock here. Lost 4 more degrees in the past hour. Still 43F here lol. I’m still skeptical but I guess I’m a pessimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM looking good @ 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: This is a legitimate event for us. The 500 pattern looks good. Ridge out west is in the right place, the 500 trough is deepening as it crosses the Appalachians, heights falling as it crosses to our south, coastal even pops closer to the Delmarva. It has room to become more than what it is but rates will be there. I’m usually pessimistic on here, but this is a threat. West of 95 has a legit shot at 2-4, with 1-2 from about Fairfax to DC. Wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the subforum got 5”. Talk about luck...the western ridge is transient, in place for all of 12 hours basically but it traverses the perfect location at exactly the right time. Along with a good vort track. The whole pattern is junk but if you only look at the conus for that one moment frozen in time it looks close to the pna ridge +AO snow composite. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 0z NAM is ripping at 21. Had some subtle changes early on and I was worried but looks like it’s gonna hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Great run...maybe wobbled a little north but overall held steady 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Clear and plummeting temps since 5pm with dews coming up at only 25% ratio. Already made up a lot of ground toward getting temps right. Looks like it will get cloudy at right time snd sun effect with clouds right now is zero. couple of normal naysayers like it and that’s encouraging. Lets sharpen up our obs skills to start, right now I’m 40/19 and brilliantly clear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Deathband 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Deathband 18z Euro and 00z NAM both get DC about 0.45” QPF...heavy rates will easily overcome surface temps. And just above the surface is cold so the rates will bring down those colder temperates to the surface too. #weenie 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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