Solution Man Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Gonna call out Ji again...where you at? We score before Jan 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I thought it was being discontinued in Jan 2020? Nope. Still going strong.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I took my tree down today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Nice cool NW breeze picked up. Still 50F so that always makes me uneasy. You can tell it’s cold above however. 1 real inch no slant stick. That’s ok with me. I also have a bottle of blue label from Xmas. Also Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Gonna call out Ji again...where you at? We score before Jan 20th He’s maybe looking at the HRRR someone mentioned earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While the shortwave itself won't be large in areal extent, it will be a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy snow can't be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow morning. As a result, we've upped snow totals and raised Winter Weather Advisories across southwestern portions of the forecast area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 What a nice look tomorrow for good old Torchanuary. Can’t wait for the OBS thread. Should be rocking! Any chance this gets here earlier so schools don’t even open? Inquiring for some teenage daughters... Meh. Who we kidding!? It’s the DMV. They’re probably closing as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I want to see a rule where snow depth maps have to be posted when available! It's a good 2" for D.C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I am rehabilitated board wise. Have you noticed?? I have. I'm scared it might be tenuous though. I'm cautiously optimistic. When the next big one hits, that'll be the true test! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product. Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway. 6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. I think we're at the peak. We back down a little from him to set the expectations right. If I get a sloppy inch of snow, I'm lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snowshoe is gonna get lit up. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 59 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: We have seen time and time again, NWS is always playing catch up They have plenty of time to make adjustments. They are doing a decent job so far imo. 00z runs on guidance will be the biggest time frame for areas to the NE. SW portion of the CWA is a slam dunk WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 My gut says dc gets good snow tv but blanked on tha accum department. McLean on NW and Rockville points west see 1-2. Hagerstown cashes in. Winchester down to snowshoe and valley gets the goods on this setup. Eitherway nice to be in the game. I’ve seen signs of PNA perhaps flipping and PAC jet finally slowing down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product. Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway. I feel like this is a tough call with the temperatures because if this thing really thumps, then it could drag down colder air and also it will just be easier to accumulate. Might really come down to how heavy the rates get. Get the rates, get a few inches. Don't get the rates, get white rain. Agree on the snow depth maps. I find them totally useless except for when white rain is the expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product. Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway. I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground. It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I feel like this is a tough call with the temperatures because if this thing really thumps, then it could drag down colder air and also it will just be easier to accumulate. Might really come down to how heavy the rates get. Get the rates, get a few inches. Don't get the rates, get white rain. Agree on the snow depth maps. I find them totally useless except for when white rain is the expectation. If the NAM is right, it's.a 4-hr long beatdown. Probably not right, but all the guidance today seems to suggest at least 1-2 hours of solid rates. It's early January fercrissakes. Yes, near-surface temps are a bit warm, but the column is perfectly cold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground. It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps. Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe. I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps. 10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1". I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2". Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera. Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario. Sleet does complicate a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I’m personally getting excited about the best snow I’ve seen all year. I live just west of Fairfax City city and we are looking pretty good on the latest Euro and NAM. Hoping for heavy rates to cool us down enough for a couple of wet inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe. I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps. 10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1". I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2". Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera. Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario. Sleet does complicate a bit. I like what I've seen from the Kuchera plots. I'll admit that it drives me nuts when it's going to be an all sleet or a white rain event, and people post the 10:1 maps screaming "The GFS/NAM/whatever is predicting 14" here. LOL." The models are NOT doing that. Any sleet or snow gets tallied together into a liquid amount, and then the web sites slap on a generic ratio that makes a product with already severe limitations 5x worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, high risk said: I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground. It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps. In marginal events or events with sleet, the 10:1 maps are usually awful as well. I tend to take the middle ground between the two unless it's a true white rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 56 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yay! Rejoice...we're all going to get half a foot of snow with surface temps of 36 degrees!! this. sure the NAM looks great and all, but ummmm its not that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: this. sure the NAM looks great and all, but ummmm its not that cold I’m not disagreeing, but the dropping dew point temps have my interest. Down to 20* at bwi and iad, 19* at York, and 18* @t dca. Heavy rates could be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, mappy said: this. sure the NAM looks great and all, but ummmm its not that cold It looks like only surface is near or above freezing while snowing. Column is good. Recall March 2018 and that was March 21st. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 RGEM is essentially identical to 12z. The QPF distribution shifted around a little bit but the end result is the same. Good run imo and very steady back to back 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Going to be a tough call for the schools. If this does materialize and thump it would likely happen in the noon to 6pm window. Commuttageddon redux not impossible lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Going to be a tough call for the schools. If this does materialize and thump it would likely happen in the noon to 6pm window. Commuttageddon redux not impossible lol I would be shocked if there are not early dismissals. There have been for much, much less threatening events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM is essentially identical to 12z. The QPF distribution shifted around a little bit but the end result is the same. Good run imo and very steady back to back MoCo/HoCo Deathband Bullseye clearly visible. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The differences with the last 2 runs of the mesos and now globals (ICON, GFS) have been noise. Very steady guidance 12-18z. I think we're mostly locked in. Big winners always TBD gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 NWS is not buying it if you look at their snow maps issued before 18Z even looking at the 10 percent map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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