yoda Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, just saw the WWA and ZFP go out so the maps should be following shortly. WWA is only for the SW portion of the LWX CWA for right now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: VDOT and DC DOT are reviewing MDOTs policy and how it is assessed for compliance by contractors. At least on paper, the program is solid and has been used elsewhere in the northeast. The plan has two tiers, one for events like the one forecast to occur and other's where at least 8 inches of snow is expected. Thats good. Not to take the thread too off topic but the salt treatment bonanza the last few years has dramatically affected watersheds both public and private. So much so that things might get critical in a few years for treatment purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: One of the things I like about these runs is the increasing low level flow out of the southeast leading into the system. This has helped really moisten the lower column, allowing minimal time for the boundary layer to have to moisten up with the onset of precip. We should see precip fall very quickly once the returns are overhead. Also, the H7 VV's on models are pretty significant across the area during the peak of the storm. There will be solid 6 hr period of solid lift across the Shenandoah and areas to the NE before we see precip tapering off. When the flow shifts to the NW, that'll be the time frame when you know the snow will be coming to an end in a few hours as dry air filters in behind the departing low. General 1-3" for areas impacted, but higher elevations in the BR and the valley's of VA could easily see 3-5". A nice little event incoming Thanks. I haven’t had a chance to really analyze but yesterday it seemed parts of our area were also being helped some by moisture convergence along an inverted trough type feature. That can sometimes lead to an unexpected surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Steady improvements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: WWA is only for the SW portion of the LWX CWA for right now though I would think that was first step for that area specifically because it falls inside 24 hrs for the start for those counties. Further to the northeast, they could in theory hold off a little longer, although they probably will pull the trigger on something. That's just my theory given recent history of Sterling and posting Winter Wx products. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I would think that was first step for that area specifically because it falls inside 24 hrs for the start for those counties. Further to the northeast, they could in theory hold off a little longer, although they probably will pull the trigger on something. That's just my theory given recent history of Sterling and posting Winter Wx products. Def agree... they could probably wait till after the 00z early runs before issuing anything for the DC/BALT metro regions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. I haven’t had a chance to really analyze but yesterday it seemed parts of our area were also being helped some by moisture convergence along an inverted trough type feature. That can sometimes lead to an unexpected surprise Agreed. You can kind of pick something out on the NAM that shows that signal. Looks like prime time is during the morning across VA and between Noon-5PM for areas to the northeast. Orientation of the precip field, as well as the orientation of the thicknesses over Central MD indicate an inverted trough type feature. Fairly progressive disturbance, so the window is still 4-7 hrs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The NWS snow maps have been updated...biggest change i think was western VA...no change for metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Def agree... they could probably wait till after the 00z early runs before issuing anything for the DC/BALT metro regionsI want a winter storm watch even if it ends up a wwA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Def agree... they could probably wait till after the 00z early runs before issuing anything for the DC/BALT metro regions I want a winter storm watch even if it ends up a wwA wont get a WSW with this in the MA https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 33 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The updated package will be out in 1-2 hrs. That's still from the morning package prior to newer guidance. We have seen time and time again, NWS is always playing catch up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, PCT_ATC said: wont get a WSW with this in the MA https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Yes everyone knows this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 47 minutes ago, SilentTalkie said: That’s a nice depiction for Western Albemarle! Is the Euro showing snow Wed morning too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: wont get a WSW with this in the MA https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter I think this map looks good... Everyone looks at the snow maps and think that is what is going to be on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: I think this map looks good... Everyone looks at the snow maps and think that is what is going to be on the ground. Id make the argument that maybe Frederick, Westmister, Leesburg and points around there should be 1" but for the metros I think its fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Is the Euro showing snow Wed morning too?Yeah, it’s showing some flurries/snow showers on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Where is the precip mass now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Where is the precip mass now? Not developed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Looks like the SREF is a little wetter if you can read those god awful ncep maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 If anybody cares, and it certainly could be wrong but the HRRR is very uninspiring...Doesnt get temps below 32 for most of us tonight and temps spike to the mid 40s tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z NAM QPF is juicy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks like the SREF is a little wetter if you can read those god awful ncep maps SREF is not an operational product anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 NAM is like the smallest comma head I've ever seen. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Where is projected location of precip mass development? Nothing out there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 18z NAM going bonkers over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, WEATHER53 said: What is projected location of precip mass development? Nothing out there right now Hasn't blossomed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SREF is not an operational product anymore. This isn't true. It absolutely still is an operational system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 someone is digging up the Ron Paul gif after that NAM'ing... you just know it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, high risk said: This isn't true. It absolutely still is an operational system. I thought it was being discontinued in Jan 2020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It's not a winter event til you get NAM'd good at 18Z. Even the positive snow depth estimate would be good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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