WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in. Should be snow but accumulations will be tough. I’m certainly no sounding expert but I would think with heavy precip those cold temps just above the surface get pulled down quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in. Should be snow but accumulations will be tough. What will help is the DP in the upper 20s. I don't even care about street accumulations...I'm happy with a heavy burst of snow and some grass accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 i love you weenies that post snow maps and get excited about it -- most of yall are getting white rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 At least the temp drops fairly rapidly in the upper levels. Even 925mb is below freezing all the way down to extreme southern MD. 850mb is frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m certainly no sounding expert but I would think with heavy precip those cold temps just above the surface get pulled down quickly. Definitely. I don't see any precip issues. I think under the heaviest we can get to freezing and fluctuate a degree or two depending on rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 WB 12Z EURO... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: i love you weenies that post snow maps and get excited about it -- most of yall are getting white rain I can live with that if it's not the usual white rain I get where I have to strain my eyes to notice precipitation is falling. The hot and heavy arrival followed by quick exit is much more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 For those wondering about rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, LP08 said: Freezing drizzle dot over Ji's house what a curse 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, LP08 said: These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in. Should be snow but accumulations will be tough. Edit: Not saying we won't accumulate. They Euro is a degree or two colder at the surface than the GFS. Wow, where did you get that data!? eta: When did Pivotal add soundings to the eruro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 38/23 IMBY when the snow starts, per Euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to see a pretty tight cluster of solutions across all guidance. Euro/gfs are basically lock step now... Seems like a best case scenario is showing up under 48 hours... would be funny if we got 3 today. 6 inches on Jan 31....and finished with above snowfall month with temps at +11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So it’s gonna rain behind the system with temps below 32? LOL at these maps sometimes Only at your house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 hours ago, mappy said: yay a slushy inch! Discussion thread... keep it clean! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 One of the things I like about these runs is the increasing low level flow out of the southeast leading into the system. This has helped really moisten the lower column, allowing minimal time for the boundary layer to have to moisten up with the onset of precip. We should see precip fall very quickly once the returns are overhead. Also, the H7 VV's on models are pretty significant across the area during the peak of the storm. There will be solid 6 hr period of solid lift across the Shenandoah and areas to the NE before we see precip tapering off. When the flow shifts to the NW, that'll be the time frame when you know the snow will be coming to an end in a few hours as dry air filters in behind the departing low. General 1-3" for areas impacted, but higher elevations in the BR and the valley's of VA could easily see 3-5". A nice little event incoming 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This is one of those events where MDOT lays down a billion tons of brine unnecessarily to avoid having to cut their budget next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 When is the radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Nice little juice-up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: This is one of those events where MDOT lays down a billion tons of brine unnecessarily to avoid having to cut their budget next year. Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads. The change also affects their contractors. Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government. The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads. The change also affects their contractors. Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government. The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems. Good to hear and I hope VDOT is following suit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: For those wondering about rates. That’s a nice depiction for Western Albemarle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 @mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Clear until 2am will allow for a good temp drop and then rapid cloud increase hold temps down post sunrise. Baro good and likely will get 50% drop between temp and dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I love how NOAA 10% chance is still <1". What a joke. I think given the current guidance since last night... it's pretty clear that over an inch (even slightly) is a 1 in 10 chance possibility, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads. The change also affects their contractors. Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government. The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems. too little too late for all that. damage already done to my well because of it. 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: @mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Actually MDOT has implemented a change to their salting procedures to reduce salting and brine application on state roads. The change also affects their contractors. Excessive salt application is now limited to county and local government. The change started at the beginning of this year and is designed to limit runoff into waterways and sewer systems. That's great news. I've always thought that it's an unbelievable waste of money and damages the waterways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Good to hear and I hope VDOT is following suit VDOT and DC DOT are reviewing MDOTs policy and how it is assessed for compliance by contractors. At least on paper, the program is solid and has been used elsewhere in the northeast. The plan has two tiers, one for events like the one forecast to occur and other's where at least 8 inches of snow is expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I love how NOAA 10% chance is still <1". What a joke. I think given the current guidance since last night... it's pretty clear that over an inch (even slightly) is a 1 in 10 chance possibility, imo The updated package will be out in 1-2 hrs. That's still from the morning package prior to newer guidance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: The updated package will be out in 1-2 hrs. That's still from the morning package prior to newer guidance. Yea, just saw the WWA and ZFP go out so the maps should be following shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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