MountainGeek Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Let's do this! Things are trending the right way, and @showmethesnow hasn't spoken in cleartext about this one so we're safe at the moment. If you ignore the soundings, this looks great! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 i cant wait for the only snow event we will see in January and possibly this winter. Especially seeing the back edge fly in as soon as the first flakes fall 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Paging @showmethesnow. The squirrel has been ambushed by the nut. I REPEAT, THE SQUIRREL HAS BEEN AMBUSHED BY THE NUT! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Let's do this! Things are trending the right way, and @showmethesnow hasn't spoken in cleartext about this one so we're safe at the moment. If you ignore the soundings, this looks great! Showme just commented, close this thread down immediately! LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I'm suprised the NWS hasn't put up an "Oh Look, Flakes" Watch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: Showme just commented, close this thread down immediately! LOL I know, we're cursed. Just now, Amped said: I'm suprised the NWS hasn't put up an "Oh Look, Flakes" Watch yet. Maybe they are going to give it a little more time -- this was around 5AM. OTOH, maybe they are betting on a phased stronger storm cutting west..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Showme just commented, close this thread down immediately! LOL Sorry guys, My Bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Sorry guys, My Bad. Can you properly encode your post on this storm from the LR thread and re-post here? That should buy you some redemption points..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 EPS says the op is close to best case scenario. Majority of eps members are nothingburgers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The setup for Tues actually isn't far from being a stronger storm then currently depicted. Right now the shortwave in the NS is lagging behind the southern SW. But a quicker, deeper drop with this NS shortwave puts it in a prime position for dropping down the back side of the southern for a phase. Only problem with seeing that occur though is that the low is struggling to stay south of us as it is. Stronger system and we are tempting fate on seeing the system run to our west. So the question is, do we fell lucky? The squirrel is in the bird feeder. I repeat. The squirrel is in the bird feeder. One thing I will add to the above. Stronger system from a phase and we get better rates to overcome the lower level warmth. The question then would become, where does the phase occur? Right now as depicted a phase would more then likely pull that system to our west. But we see it occur farther to the south and/or east chances are we could see the system stay underneath us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS says the op is close to best case scenario. Majority of eps members are nothingburgers. And even the operational 12z Euro has fairly mild boundary layer temperatures for the I95 region (see sounding below). Unfortunately not a great pattern for low-level cold air with the progressive 500-mb troughs in SE Canada/lack of a strong, cold anticyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Can you properly encode your post on this storm from the LR thread and re-post here? That should buy you some redemption points.....I’ll choose to take the optimistic position... the Control member looks fairly similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Good write-up! Stick it to the pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, heavy_wx said: And even the operational 12z Euro has fairly mild boundary layer temperatures for the I95 region (see sounding below). Unfortunately not a great pattern for low-level cold air with the progressive 500-mb troughs in SE Canada/lack of a strong, cold anticyclone. Yea, it's an uphill battle to put it lightly... The only reason there's a chance is because we're in our coldest climo window of the year. This same event in Dec or late Feb is all rain. Jan can be forgiving as we can get snow with AN temps. I'm not excited about it but if I can get 1" out of the deal it would be a pretty big win all things considered 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I don’t see what could possibly go wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 NAM’d 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 It's always worth remembering in these marginal events that the 10:1 maps do NOT represent what the model thinks will be on the ground. There is a total snowfall liquid equivalent parameter that reflects how much liquid is falling as snow out of the model. It makes no attempt to answer what the SLR will be or whether it will stick; those maps are TT throwing a 10:1 ratio on that liquid total. The accumulated snow depth plots DO reflect what the model thinks will actually accumulate on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM’d I am prepared to chase this week, as long as there is a chance for a solid couple inches. NAM says stay home lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I don't care how much would stick, I just want to see it falling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: I don't care how much would stick, I just want to see it falling. It's Jan. I am well beyond being giddy over snow tv. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I don't care how much would stick, I just want to see it falling. Just let me see it fall, I'm with you dog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18z GFS is further south, colder 850s, but still weak sauce precip and warm surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Agreed. The weather gods have the final say...throw out the negativity. Actually in fairness to the doom and gloom facts there Has been a ray of hope for something this week on the models for a couple of weeks. 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Just let me see it fall, I'm with you dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Super progressive flow. No chance for this to take up residence long enough to do any damage. Probably snow tv at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 GFS says will be lucky to see anything. Hug the EURO, CMC, and the NAM. I am just enjoying having something to track in January. I really have no expectations. I am amused at how personal people are taking this crappy pattern... DON’T!!!! It is just the weather. i just saw my Uncle dying from cancer. That is something to get upset about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z GEFS is further south, colder 850s, but still weak sauce precip and warm surface. I really don't see how we make this setup work. The high is over West Virginia, and doesn't extend north into New England . The scenarios suppressed enough for snow all have weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: GFS says will be lucky to see anything. Hug the EURO, CMC, and the NAM. GooFuS always last to the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I found the snow but unfortunately it's in Eastern Europe. Romania we finally got snow during my trip back home. Hope to bring some back to the east coast by mid month] Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t see what could possibly go wrong We have a chance. Especially out this way. It depends how much cold air can make it in here on Monday night. But I think we will at least see flakes falling. Which is a win this winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: I found the snow but unfortunately it's in Eastern Europe. Romania we finally got snow during my trip back home. Hope to bring some back to the east coast by mid month Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk They always take pictures sideways over there? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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