ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM/6z GFS has snow developing on Tuesday PM ending by 7pm with around 2 inches of snow for Western Chester County PA - more snow to the south on the latest NAM....something to potentially watch during our remaining 2 weeks before winter's potential return.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM/6z GFS has snow developing on Tuesday PM ending by 7pm with around 2 inches of snow for Western Chester County PA - more snow to the south on the latest NAM....something to potentially watch during our remaining 2 weeks before winter's potential return.... I wouldnt hold my breath on winter's return. Trying to remain optimistic but the ens keep pushing the PAC ridge breakdown and any NAO help farther and farther down the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Euro and CMC are decent hits for parts of SE PA. Euro is 3" up this way, the CMC focuses the better snows S of the TP. NAM trended better also. Officially has my attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12z NAM= slightly different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I'm not seeing anything more than a coating for really anyone. Many of the 12z suite suggest we get absolutely nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I'm not seeing anything more than a coating for really anyone. Many of the 12z suite suggest we get absolutely nada. C-2" sounds about right. We do these small events well. Nickel and diming is our thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA continues to have snow developing by 330pm and all over by 7pm with between 0.8" to 1.3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This would make me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 51 minutes ago, J.P. said: This would make me sick. Gotta like the little blob in Central Jersey, Lol, can’t make this crap up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Temps are warm, but I definitely do think parts of SE PA can pick up 1-2" tomorrow especially if rates are heavy enough. I definitely wouldn't take the GFS 10:1 snow map seriously (well you never should), but take it as where the heaviest snows could likely fall tomorrow evening. As the secondary forms off the coast, you'll see the radar collapse likely and the QPF will dry out. There will definitely be a shadow effect when the transfer occurs. Here's hoping we can hold onto the small but potent primary long enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 NAM and ECM drying out in SEPA/NJ doesn't look right with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 ^ Will be a good test of the old "EE rule". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 WXSIM with 18z data has snow arriving by 4pm with some heavy snow around 7pm and ending by 10pm - total snow now up to 2" to 3"...it will change with 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nice FGEN forcing at about 8 to 9pm tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 NAM 12k from 0z is inline with my thoughts a general c-2" event. Should be rippage for a period as well per the NAM. Has some good forcing moving thru the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM 12k from 0z is inline with my thoughts a general c-2" event. Should be rippage for a period as well per the NAM. Has some good forcing moving thru the region. Even a 2” storm here would easily be the biggest so far. Just some snow showers seen here in Royersford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 GFS improved a lot for Berks and Chester county's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I think C-2" is a good bet north and west of 95. Unfortunately along 95, south and east this is looking like light rain transitioning to a brief period of wet snow. I think a coating is pushing it. Most likely just wet ground and mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 WXSIM for NW Chester County with 0z data ticks up a bit again now showing 4" to 4.5" of snow by 11pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If nothing else this should prove you always get a little snow even in a torch January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Most guidance continues to trend this farther N with a torch BL in and around SE PA even to Lancaster. Being this is such a fast mover (3-4 houes?) I'm wondering just how much accumulating snow the region will actually see especially South and East of say Morgantown PA. While it's nice to see the NAM overdo qpf again it is basically by itself. The more realistic snow depth maps on the NAM which I find to be VERY accurate in these marginal events support the c-2" idea I suggested....leaning low end of that from say Pottstown S and E. Latest hrrr rolled in while typing and has trended warmer and is essentially a nothing burger for the area and has trending support among other guidance. Not impressed. Will be thrilled to see an hour of white rain thumpage and a quick coating of slush here before the system pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Latest WXSIM with 6z data holds serve with Snow arriving by 330pm. Snow gets heavy between 6 and 7pm before ending by 11pm. Total snow accumulation of 3.8" to 4.5". I still expect this to trend lower with the 12z runs... this will be a highly elevation dependent event with the only chance at approaching the above levels being above 650 ft - as Steve noted above lower spots I would be surprised if lower elevations see any more than 2" of snow at most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z NAM coming in line with other guidance. Hrrr is still very warm much like the rgem....definitely has me raising an eyebrow as snow will be rate dependent for the most part. HRRR is a nonevent essentially. GL everyone...set your expectations very low with this one and maybe hope for a small surprise : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yep looking like a non event for most now. Paul in west chester and Kamu are in a decent spot though, they'll probably snag an inch or two. Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly S and E I would set my expectations for mood flakes at best at this point. It's already 40F in Trenton, up 6 degrees in the last hour, and the temp probably going to soar above the forecasted high of 42. It's going to struggle flipping to snow along 95 except maybe towards the very end. I'll be surprised if we even get a coating. The winter weather advisory was the kiss of death just like on Dec. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I’m pretty much looking towards February to hopefully pan out. This pattern blows, we’re ready at work for whatever comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Not sure the HRRR is the model of choice when it comes to BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yep looking like a non event for most now. Paul in west chester and Kamu are in a decent spot though, they'll probably snag an inch or two. Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly S and E I would set my expectations for mood flakes at best at this point. It's already 40F in Trenton, up 6 degrees in the last hour, and the temp probably going to soar above the forecasted high of 42. It's going to struggle flipping to snow along 95 except maybe towards the very end. I'll be surprised if we even get a coating. The winter weather advisory was the kiss of death just like on Dec. 1. Dew point is also sitting at 21 in Trenton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 945 update from Mt Holly( you guys need to stop looking at HRRR here): .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM Update: Bumped up snow totals for late this evening across northern Delmarva and the western Philly metro to better match the latest hi-res guidance trends. The HRRR appears to be an outlier as it is not strengthening the surface low fast enough as it move offshore this evening. Additionally, the HRRR is too warm and humid therefore will be largely discounted in future forecast updates. It appears the NAM, its decedents, and the CMC will be favored in future updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 RGEM is very warm. Guidance continues with weaker low, weaker 850 lift, and warmer bl. Low deepens but later after best lift is well past the Del River. Hrrr might be overdone but it is gaining support. Expectations are low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 WWA was warranted I do not disagree with that at all. Their wording about slick travel on point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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