buckeye Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 only 36-48 hrs out and the gfs has heavy rain over much of OH and IN tuesday.....the nam has nada. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I guess we'll find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I agree, I am strongly betting against the NAM. In terms of the position of the large scale trough, NAM is very similar to the global guidance, but it doesn't deepen the upper wave after 36 hours like the global guidance. At 42 hours, the NAM has the lead shortwave at the base of the trough lagging 6 hours back the GFS while the GFS is already deepening and ejecting the shortwave into the OH Valley. Given that the NAM has a known bias towards a far too slow progression of shortwaves, I doubt it will be right. I bet by 12Z it should start catching on to a stronger wave and larger QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 0Z regional GEM is in and is in agreement with the global guidance. Reg GEM is often times a much more reliable model than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 2 words Convective Feedback The NAM is trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 2 words Convective Feedback The NAM is trash This has nothing to do with convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 This has nothing to do with convective feedback. Normally it is so I had to take a stab in the dark I think in all honesty the model just sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 12z NAM coming closer to the other guidance finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Where did the 540m thickness line go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Where did the 540m thickness line go? EVV ate it. But yeah, well done NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 EVV ate it. But yeah, well done NAM. Ahh NAM follies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Normally it is so I had to take a stab in the dark I think in all honesty the model just sucks. I won't disagree with that, most of the time the NAM is a big pile of trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I did a brief write up about the storm and why the NAM would likely be wrong last night. http://jasonahsenmacher.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/the-importance-of-model-timing-ohio-valley-and-se-rain-event/ I was going to post it here but the forums were down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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