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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The scary thing is the intention by NCEP to basically NGM the NAM from here on out and do no further updates and then discontinue it when the GFS is considered good enough to be the only US model.  My feeling is they’ll have to reconsider in 3-5 years when things aren’t going as planned 

Yeah the NAM is a dead man walking. The issue really is you have the NAM, its nest, ARW, NMM, and HRRR all essentially doing the same thing. So the resources will be dumped into the HRRR and extend it out through 60 hours (like the NAM nest) and basically have two American models, the GFS and the HRRR. The new HREF will then be HRRR based, more similar to the old NCAR ensemble. Theoretically it sounds great, but there are bound to be growing pains and that's assuming everything goes well with physics upgrades. 

And we're unlikely to see any GFS physics upgrade until the GEFS go FV3, which is later this year I believe. 

Gotta say the new EPS looks pretty nice Sunday, with the -4C isotherm slicing through the heart of New England. 

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20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Contrary to popular belief the GFS did not get worse. It has improved skill, the problem is that other models (looking at you ECMWF) have improved faster. Hell even the CMC has improved faster. So the GFS is losing ground. 

Admittedly the GFS has not had any major upgrades recently as all the focus was on the background of the FV3. So hopefully the trend will be to at least maintain pace in the future.

Forget it ... there's no ear for such lies in among the Lords of the Flies --

Lord knows...I've tried

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah the NAM is a dead man walking. The issue really is you have the NAM, its nest, ARW, NMM, and HRRR all essentially doing the same thing. So the resources will be dumped into the HRRR and extend it out through 60 hours (like the NAM nest) and basically have two American models, the GFS and the HRRR. The new HREF will then be HRRR based, more similar to the old NCAR ensemble. Theoretically it sounds great, but there are bound to be growing pains and that's assuming everything goes well with physics upgrades. 

And we're unlikely to see any GFS physics upgrade until the GEFS go FV3, which is later this year I believe. 

Gotta say the new EPS looks pretty nice Sunday, with the -4C isotherm slicing through the heart of New England. 

Thats great and all but what about the SREFs?! We need to know, it's killing me inside.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah the NAM is a dead man walking. The issue really is you have the NAM, its nest, ARW, NMM, and HRRR all essentially doing the same thing. So the resources will be dumped into the HRRR and extend it out through 60 hours (like the NAM nest) and basically have two American models, the GFS and the HRRR. The new HREF will then be HRRR based, more similar to the old NCAR ensemble. Theoretically it sounds great, but there are bound to be growing pains and that's assuming everything goes well with physics upgrades. 

And we're unlikely to see any GFS physics upgrade until the GEFS go FV3, which is later this year I believe. 

Gotta say the new EPS looks pretty nice Sunday, with the -4C isotherm slicing through the heart of New England. 

The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours.  Extending it to 60 seems nuts 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

HOLY NAM!  The model is pushed the trough east, less amped, more progressive, but also a better overall structure between the potential phase.

If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked

i smell a block coming.

Someone get James an inhaler, he's having another one of those weenie hyperventalation attacks

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked

Come on Tip, there is a big difference between the 12z garbage crap, and the 18z solution out to 84 hours, again the storm is not done, so we don't know the end result.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours.  Extending it to 60 seems nuts 

It wouldn't be one fell swoop, but over time pushed out to 60 hours. Plus it would benefit from increased computing power if a bunch of other model runs were dumped. 

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