ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Wow I had thought the cras was dead for years...guess it's fitting that zombie finally got slayed on Halloween. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Wow 18z NAM is a lot slower with the northern branch system and allows the southern system to go and move ahead of the northern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The scary thing is the intention by NCEP to basically NGM the NAM from here on out and do no further updates and then discontinue it when the GFS is considered good enough to be the only US model. My feeling is they’ll have to reconsider in 3-5 years when things aren’t going as planned Yeah the NAM is a dead man walking. The issue really is you have the NAM, its nest, ARW, NMM, and HRRR all essentially doing the same thing. So the resources will be dumped into the HRRR and extend it out through 60 hours (like the NAM nest) and basically have two American models, the GFS and the HRRR. The new HREF will then be HRRR based, more similar to the old NCAR ensemble. Theoretically it sounds great, but there are bound to be growing pains and that's assuming everything goes well with physics upgrades. And we're unlikely to see any GFS physics upgrade until the GEFS go FV3, which is later this year I believe. Gotta say the new EPS looks pretty nice Sunday, with the -4C isotherm slicing through the heart of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Wow I had thought the cras was dead for years...guess it's fitting that zombie finally got slayed on Halloween. It's doing it's own self-aware zombie runs on an Windows XP machine. Skynet is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Contrary to popular belief the GFS did not get worse. It has improved skill, the problem is that other models (looking at you ECMWF) have improved faster. Hell even the CMC has improved faster. So the GFS is losing ground. Admittedly the GFS has not had any major upgrades recently as all the focus was on the background of the FV3. So hopefully the trend will be to at least maintain pace in the future. Forget it ... there's no ear for such lies in among the Lords of the Flies -- Lord knows...I've tried 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah the NAM is a dead man walking. The issue really is you have the NAM, its nest, ARW, NMM, and HRRR all essentially doing the same thing. So the resources will be dumped into the HRRR and extend it out through 60 hours (like the NAM nest) and basically have two American models, the GFS and the HRRR. The new HREF will then be HRRR based, more similar to the old NCAR ensemble. Theoretically it sounds great, but there are bound to be growing pains and that's assuming everything goes well with physics upgrades. And we're unlikely to see any GFS physics upgrade until the GEFS go FV3, which is later this year I believe. Gotta say the new EPS looks pretty nice Sunday, with the -4C isotherm slicing through the heart of New England. Thats great and all but what about the SREFs?! We need to know, it's killing me inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 HOLY NAM! The model is pushed the trough east, less amped, more progressive, but also a better overall structure between the potential phase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah the NAM is a dead man walking. The issue really is you have the NAM, its nest, ARW, NMM, and HRRR all essentially doing the same thing. So the resources will be dumped into the HRRR and extend it out through 60 hours (like the NAM nest) and basically have two American models, the GFS and the HRRR. The new HREF will then be HRRR based, more similar to the old NCAR ensemble. Theoretically it sounds great, but there are bound to be growing pains and that's assuming everything goes well with physics upgrades. And we're unlikely to see any GFS physics upgrade until the GEFS go FV3, which is later this year I believe. Gotta say the new EPS looks pretty nice Sunday, with the -4C isotherm slicing through the heart of New England. The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: TT I always look heh. It comes out much earlier on their meteorological product site. They have something legit for TC modeling in the coamps but their global model is pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts Its not very stable from what i see from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: HOLY NAM! The model is pushed the trough east, less amped, more progressive, but also a better overall structure between the potential phase. If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked i smell a block coming. Someone get James an inhaler, he's having another one of those weenie hyperventalation attacks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked Come on Tip, there is a big difference between the 12z garbage crap, and the 18z solution out to 84 hours, again the storm is not done, so we don't know the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 It’s actually a much better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: i smell a block coming. Someone get James an inhaler, he's having another one of those weenie hyperventalation attacks I am good. I just found it interesting, the change between six hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s actually a much better look. It is much better. It's a trend in the right direction. Its also the NAM at 60-84hrs so it's almost meaningless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 84h NAM does look interesting. But it's the 84h NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: It is much better. It's a trend in the right direction. Its also the NAM at 60-84hrs so it's almost meaningless. And they way it performed in the last one, It is useless even inside 24 hrs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts It wouldn't be one fell swoop, but over time pushed out to 60 hours. Plus it would benefit from increased computing power if a bunch of other model runs were dumped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 all this talk about canning the NAM and folks are talking about the 84hr panel.. either way it does look interesting.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: all this talk about canning the NAM and folks are talking about the 84hr panel.. either way it does look interesting.. It will have a run for everyone and in the end, Screws 99% of the posters up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It wouldn't be one fell swoop, but over time pushed out to 60 hours. Plus it would benefit from increased computing power if a bunch of other model runs were dumped. Hrrr v4 is already 60 h on cod. Is there something more to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: It is much better. It's a trend in the right direction. Its also the NAM at 60-84hrs so it's almost meaningless. We have the navy/korea/nam camp for snowy solutions at d4, backed by England. What can go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hrrr v4 is already 60 h on cod. Is there something more to that? Is it 60 now? I thought it was 48. Either way that's the parallel version that's still experimental, but that will ultimately be the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Dang. Not looking good for my Sunday 9am flight out of BOS. Perfect timing. Ditto ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Is it 60 now? I thought it was 48. Either way that's the parallel version that's still experimental, but that will ultimately be the new NAM. Nah you're right. My fault. Its 48 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 RIP David Stern, such a big loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 DGEX or bust! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: RIP David Stern, such a big loss. Right as I was wondering to myself if Gary Bettman is okay. He really looked bad today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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