dendrite Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It can be useful at times for trend ideas. I haven’t looked at it today but if it was snowing a complete whiff today for the entire NE you could argue there’s a better chance this ticks south vs if it’s in dead agreement with the Euro it could mean this will end up congrats Ottawa It got an upgrade years ago. Does it really still have a flat/suppressed bias? Not saying you're wrong, but I hate using old model "rules" too when they change every other year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Dont think they upgraded it since you were in diapers It got a big upgrade IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Phew. I was worried they classified it. Can't let the Russians get ahold of the equations. They're really holding onto a gem right there (no pun intended). Discontinue that pos and put more resources into the GFS. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember those maps. I used to check that nogaps back in the day circa 2005-2010ish...it had a very consistent SE bias back then so it was worth checking to see if it was coming NW. It would sometimes be a harbinger of a NW trend if you got two runs in a row like that. But nowdays I feel like it's a dartboard... I look at it (with absolutely 0 weight for forecast influence) for every storm. It's a dart board, it seems to be well N just as much as it is South. I used to look it too with actually seriousness when i was still naive and thought all models were equal more or less in the 2003-2006 era. Didn't go so well for forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Remember when we could lock in the Euro inside 96, now even Will who was the original Euro gangsta is ascared of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: It got an upgrade years ago. Does it really still have a flat/suppressed bias? Not saying you're wrong, but I hate using old model "rules" too when they change every other year. It feel as if from 36-90 or so it does. Beyond that I remember something telling me that from 96-120 if it is in lock step agreement with the GFS or Euro it’s generally an indicator the GFS/Euro idea are wrong and that they’ll undergo some type of huge change in track/evolution in the next day because the NavGEM just is that bad at that range it means the GFS/Euro idea have to be wrong too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Less is more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Remember when we could lock in Euro inside 96, now even Will who was the original Euro gangsta is ascared of it. The Op Euro has been way better so far this cold season on not having an amped bias from 84-120. I believe it had an upgrade in April or May and that seems to maybe have fixed that issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 GFS crap scares everyone and makes them hedge. That's the model they should send to the scrap heap. Saw posts where its 5H scores are a decade behind the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The Op Euro has been way better so far this cold season on not having an amped bias from 84-120. I believe it had an upgrade in April or May and that seems to maybe have fixed that issue Oh I agree and have used it and the UK with pretty good results this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 12z UKMET is a real good scenario, the 15z SREFs I believe are the current northern outliers and how far the system goes north, the GFS is bonkers. Again, not sold until we get about 30 hours closer. Just interesting to follow the trends. Our disturbance in question is coming onshore in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS crap scares everyone and makes them hedge. That's the model they should send to the scrap heap. Saw posts where its 5H scores are a decade behind the Euro The GFS hasn’t necessarily worsened but in the last 8-10 years there’s been so much advancement in the high res models that it’s just more or less useless now. It didn’t seem as bad in 2009 or 2012 because the other models weren’t as good or didn’t exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember when we could lock in the Euro inside 96, now even Will who was the original Euro gangsta is ascared of it. It's been pretty good so far this season but it barfed all over itself on the 12/18 event inside of 72 hours. Plus, back in the day the GFS was so bad with coastals, you could almost ignore it (even nowadays on legit KU-Esque coastals it still has problems imho...though we haven't gotten to test the new core yet...we haven't had a true legit one since March 2018). But GFS was pretty good with SWFE so when you had Euro/GFS agreement at 84-96h I remember you could lock it in...ala 12/13/07 I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Pulling out all the stops on this one, JMA, Navgem, Srefs........ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 As much as everyone dumps on the GFS, It actually handled this last one pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Navy still has it too And Navy beat KState in the Liberty Bowl. Let’s ride them, they have the hot hand! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Pulling out all the stops on this one, JMA, Navgem, Srefs........ha ha How's the ACCESS-G look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS hasn’t necessarily worsened but in the last 8-10 years there’s been so much advancement in the high res models that it’s just more or less useless now. It didn’t seem as bad in 2009 or 2012 because the other models weren’t as good or didn’t exist Contrary to popular belief the GFS did not get worse. It has improved skill, the problem is that other models (looking at you ECMWF) have improved faster. Hell even the CMC has improved faster. So the GFS is losing ground. Admittedly the GFS has not had any major upgrades recently as all the focus was on the background of the FV3. So hopefully the trend will be to at least maintain pace in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: How's the ACCESS-G look? Like one you would tell your kids and grandkids about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: Contrary to popular belief the GFS did not get worse. It has improved skill, the problem is that other models (looking at you ECMWF) have improved faster. Hell even the CMC has improved faster. So the GFS is losing ground. Admittedly the GFS has not had any major upgrades recently as all the focus was on the background of the FV3. So hopefully the trend will be to at least maintain pace in the future. The scary thing is the intention by NCEP to basically NGM the NAM from here on out and do no further updates and then discontinue it when the GFS is considered good enough to be the only US model. My feeling is they’ll have to reconsider in 3-5 years when things aren’t going as planned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: As much as everyone dumps on the GFS, It actually handled this last one pretty good. It came along at hr 48. IDK Jeff. Euro was dropping big hints day 7, why we pulled the punter off the field on your team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It can be useful at times for trend ideas. I haven’t looked at it today but if it was snowing a complete whiff today for the entire NE you could argue there’s a better chance this ticks south vs if it’s in dead agreement with the Euro it could mean this will end up congrats Ottawa Well if you're looking for a trend idea, it has absolutely nada for Wednesday. 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 12z UKMET is a real good scenario, the 15z SREFs I believe are the current northern outliers and how far the system goes north, the GFS is bonkers. Again, not sold until we get about 30 hours closer. Just interesting to follow the trends. Our disturbance in question is coming onshore in coastal British Columbia, Canada. You're looking at SREF's for Sunday? Do they even go out that far? They're bad two hours out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 what happened to the CRAS model? I was recently looking at some old threads and there were lots of posts about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: It came along at hr 48. IDK Jeff. Euro was dropping big hints day 7, why we pulled the punter off the field on your team I'm not discounting that the euro had it in the longer term, But i was watching this one moreso and the GFS did ok with it, The Nam was actually, The worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: what happened to the CRAS model? I was recently looking at some old threads and there were lots of posts about it I don’t know but it always had a severe west bias and when it didn’t for the January 2014 bust I knew we was in trouble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Well if you're looking for a trend idea, it has absolutely nada for Wednesday. You're looking at SREF's for Sunday? Do they even go out that far? They're bad two hours out. . No, they are not great, but they do share amplified members, and we can use them for guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: what happened to the CRAS model? I was recently looking at some old threads and there were lots of posts about it That was the model everyone would look to if a storm was hitting Bermuda. The cras would have a KU over ACK with about 5 inches of qpf. Such a terrible model for synoptic winter storms. If my memory serves correctly, I believe it was meant for convection....it used a ton of satellite data input....far more than typical NWP guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That was the model everyone would look to if a storm was hitting Bermuda. The cras would have a KU over ACK with about 5 inches of qpf. Such a terrible model. If my memory serves correctly, I believe it was meant for convection....I used a ton of satellite data input....far more than typical NWP guidance. Yeah it was like an experiment with satellite data. It was somewhat alive until Halloween. https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 18z NAM is more amped with the northern branch disturbance and closes off at H5 at 51 hours. The southern stream energy is also amped and more organized. It is also ahead of the northern branch system, this could be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: what happened to the CRAS model? I was recently looking at some old threads and there were lots of posts about it Looks like they finally canned it around Halloween... what a shame since it was good entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah it was like an experiment with satellite data. It was somewhat alive until Halloween. https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/ last run 10-31-19 haha. i really miss those old style panels that NCEP had in the early/mid 2000s. Their new interface is less user-friendly, the UI/UX was just better i thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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