HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Clowns on Euro look like a nice warning event for N of the Pike Decent QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I really hate the talk of Scott's skid marks. Triggered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, JGNYK03 said: exactly and the 12z EURO trended towards the primary being more dominant which torches southern CT. Yeah sort of..it had a much stronger secondary with a way better CCB than the 00z run, but it just redeveloped a bit further north, so in that sense the primary was a pain in the azz in hanging tough longer, but once it ceded to the secondary, it did so much more dynamically than 00z. Obviously if the redevelopment happens later than it doesn't really help southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, JGNYK03 said: trended much worse for me and you from 00z Yea, I was looking on TT. I forget the site only compares 24hr intervals only. Looks worse vs 0z on Pivotal but still some time to sink this some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Meh here.... unless this ticks a good amount in the next few days. Maybe we get an inch or two... going to need big changes for more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Honestly, I'd prob keep hopes to like 1-3" if you are south of, say, a Chris in Greenfield to Hubbdave to Ray line...if we get a trend better, then you'll be pleasantly surprised. But this still has all sorts of problems for siggy snow in SNE. It could even go wrong pretty easily for CNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, JGNYK03 said: Much warmer than 00z for most in CT, not the trend we wanted.. Need that to get a few tics south for everyone in the forum to enjoy .. It’s colder than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s much colder than 00z Its colder overall because the secondary its pretty strong, I just don't like how the primary gets too far north.. we need a lot more help down here than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks nice. Good hit nrn CT to CNE/NNE. What does it show for New York City sorry you bother on mobile can’t check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah sort of..it had a much stronger secondary with a way better CCB than the 00z run, but it just redeveloped a bit further north, so in that sense the primary was a pain in the azz in hanging tough longer, but once it ceded to the secondary, it did so much more dynamically than 00z. Obviously if the redevelopment happens later than it doesn't really help southern areas. This will be one of those deals where each run improves with one facet while something else worsens. Zero net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: What does it show for New York City sorry you bother on mobile can’t check Rain. More rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: What does it show for New York City sorry you bother on mobile can’t check Looks a touch of snow at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Backside flakes...fade it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is a quick moving NJ Model low in this 12z oper. Euro ...might approach bombogen criteria, but probably rapid enough either way to clip the region with middling concerns. Others are right... there's going to be some height fall requirement/but 850 mb pulling down cold from the N once that and the 700 surface are closing off would likely accelerates that. Airs some semblance to me of November 1986. This has a pretty potent frontogenic signature there, even using the poor granularity of the free-bee products that is discernible. With a 500 surface closing and heights falling with cyclogen kick-back, destablization in a band or two gives some meso/thunder concerns - but I may be too optimistic with deepening rates. Close call! Anyway, inside of D4 on the Euro is typically in 80th percentile for correct... There may be times where it has performed worse, but there are enough where it's 90 or better...it's a got a solid and reasonably dependability for 84 to 96 lead. Man, we would have had a blizzard if we had had a PNA ridge.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 EPS looks pretty good for the pike region up into CNE/NNE. Definitely potential for 6 hours of heavy snow at the end wth that look. There's just not a lot of wiggle room down on the southern end of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 This is one of those setups where we’d get into this timeframe and it would go from looking like dog sh*t to a legit winter storm up until go time in years past. I think our luck has run out in that regard the last couple of seasons. Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 With that being said... there is still a clear path to a solid advisory event, even south of the pike. Just need things to break right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, JGNYK03 said: Its colder overall because the secondary its pretty strong, I just don't like how the primary gets too far north.. we need a lot more help down here than you I wouldn't very interested if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty good for the pike region up into CNE/NNE. Definitely potential for 6 hours of heavy snow at the end wth that look. There's just not a lot of wiggle room down on the southern end of that range. 2nd wave looks further east on the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't very interested if I were you. Why? This has potential for everyone with the h5 look. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Why? This has potential for everyone with the h5 look. It's definitely less favorable the further south you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't very interested if I were you. In this pattern 5 minutes of flurries would interest me. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, JGNYK03 said: In this pattern 5 minutes of flurries would interest me. Touche. You seem to have realistic expectations, which is an unusual trait around here.... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's definitely less favorable the further south you go. Yep right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 This is still trending... wish casting lol hoping the January 8th storm kicks in high gear and we get a full blown snowstorm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty good for the pike region up into CNE/NNE. Definitely potential for 6 hours of heavy snow at the end wth that look. There's just not a lot of wiggle room down on the southern end of that range. Meaning no dice south of 90? Seems to me N CT still could get 2-5 or something 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's definitely less favorable the further south you go. Yeah I’ve never seen our area here get major snows from this sort of setup nor even a high end advisory event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I’ve never seen our area here get major snows from this sort of setup nor even a high end advisory event How many times have we had this setup? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This is still trending... wish casting lol hoping the January 8th storm kicks in high gear and we get a full blown snowstorm The secondary low needs to get it's act together fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Why? This has potential for everyone with the h5 look. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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