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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even I...the ultimate snow lover....would have a hard time getting up for a 2-4" snowfall in early January if I lived in Bethel or somewhere else with similar snow climo. Too bad the more dynamic solutions have been lost....even some of the ones that gave SNE nothing at least were giving 8-10" up north in a wide swath.

N Greens have best shot at a few inches.  If this thing loses any more dynamics and shreds out I could see even Bethel getting only 1-2". 

 Hopefully it surprises and all the mountains get 4 to 6" 

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Heh... "still time for this to go to shit" reminds me of that joke ... 

Some dude dies and goes to hell. 

He gets confronted by Satan who says, "We're not infinitely uncivilized in our ruination as recompense for deeds of soiled souls .. we at least give you the choice of what where and how you'll spend eternity .. Shall we begin the selection tour?" 

The dude sees all these people standing around naked .. feet submerged in the shit of their smuggest enemies, to a depth somewhere between knee and ankle high. Huh? What's more, they are all holding saucers with donuts and coffee?  Wtf.

Mind you, he'd just seen hundred of parallel dimensions and universes, where the reality is unspeakably transcending any putrescence known ... So, although bad, the ignominy of enemy's shit at least gets donuts and coffee  - fuggit.   

Next thing he knows, he too is naked standing in the shit of his smuggest enemies.  A saucer with a cup of coffee and donut in hand, a voice booms through the ether ... and it says, "Okay everyone - breaks over. Back to the push-ups!"

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

N Greens have best shot at a few inches.  If this thing loses any more dynamics and shreds out I could see even Bethel getting only 1-2". 

 Hopefully it surprises and all the mountains get 4 to 6" 

I actually think the oppo happens, It couldn't shred any worse then it was, A slight uptick would not surprise me.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, The Nam looks to get SE MA with some love on the clown..........

image.thumb.png.0ce2f5f5cf80f4ed6ed9e4fb66d92feb.png

They get clipped with the late development....same part of the system that was forecasted to bomb out like crazy and give 6-10 by the Euro 36 hours ago.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They get clipped with the late development....same part of the system that was forecasted to bomb out like crazy and give 6-10 by the Euro 36 hours ago.

Yeah, Looked to pop a hair sooner and throw some precip back NW as the low moves east, To bad that can't happen 6-12 hrs sooner.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There has been some hint on some models that this could clip se areas up the coast to Boston and north shore.

Obviously we aren’t talking big amounts... but would you be shocked if eastern ma scored an inch or two? 

No, and I do see why. I’m just not sold at the moment. That’s a nice little mid level magic parting gift on NAM. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No, and I do see why. I’m just not sold at the moment. That’s a nice little mid level magic parting gift on NAM. 

Oh I agree... I’m not predicting that at the moment... just a subtle little trend to keep an eye on. Still a solid 36 hours away so wouldn’t take much to trend a little bit better on the tail end.

Icon actually threw precip back further this run at the end too

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BOX is wasted . Puff puff pass 

Mid level trough finally pushes eastward through our area overnight,
pushing the surface low offshore. Models have the low intensifying
as it tracks towards/into the Canadian Maritimes, keeping this
strengthening system farther north and more progressive. Continue to
expect light QPF amounts for our area, up to 0.2 inch liquid
equivalent. With the colder airmass moving into our area behind the
low, we will see precip changing from rain to snow. Model soundings
indicate sufficient cold air aloft to support dendrites. At this
time, thinking snowfall potential would range from 1 to 3 inches
over the interior, with up to an inch in the coastal plain and lower
CT River Valley. Overnight lows in the mid 20s to low 30s expected
for much of SNE, except some mid 30s possible Boston, the
Cape/Islands and portions of S. coastal SNE.

 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX is wasted . Puff puff pass 


Mid level trough finally pushes eastward through our area overnight,
pushing the surface low offshore. Models have the low intensifying
as it tracks towards/into the Canadian Maritimes, keeping this
strengthening system farther north and more progressive. Continue to
expect light QPF amounts for our area, up to 0.2 inch liquid
equivalent. With the colder airmass moving into our area behind the
low, we will see precip changing from rain to snow. Model soundings
indicate sufficient cold air aloft to support dendrites. At this
time, thinking snowfall potential would range from 1 to 3 inches
over the interior, with up to an inch in the coastal plain and lower
CT River Valley. Overnight lows in the mid 20s to low 30s expected
for much of SNE, except some mid 30s possible Boston, the
Cape/Islands and portions of S. coastal SNE.

 

Must be looking at soundings

7A01F685-1BBF-4AD4-9077-FCC5ACB750BE.png

ECFFC92A-69E0-4CED-87D3-0DB734461102.png

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Watch your backside...

Profiles show a robust low level upward motion through the 0 to
-5C dendritic growth zone which may help to enhance snowfall in
what would otherwise be marginal conditions.

Bottom line, while the overall forecast package has seen just a
slight uptick in the Snow totals, feel the higher end bust
potential is there however the confidence isn`t high enough to
narrow down a region for an advisory or watch.

As the low moves out on Saturday night further enhancement to the
snowfall through the mountains will occur as NWly flow develops.
This may allow the mountains to pick up another few inches
overnight, leaving this area the ultimate winner from this system.
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I don’t know...Box had you with very little ice back on Monday...and you thought you were getting an ice storm lol, when it was Clear that wasn’t gonna happen. 
 

Now they have you with 1-3” of snow, and you say they are wasted...??  Hmmm? 
 

Might want to start hedging your bets with the pros pal...

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Hazey could still get it decently in Halifax. Still a bit more uncertainty over there. 

Yeah I noticed a bit of a late trend to tuck this in closer to me. Not sure I buy that yet. Need another round of guidance. Complex storm and deep too. Mid 80’s at my latitude. Low 60’s upper 50’s for you. That’s beastly.
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