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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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I’m ‘85... March ‘93 is my first real weather memory.  I remember going to a blizzard party next door where we could play Nintendo while it dumped.  

As a kid, walking through blizzard conditions for 100 yards down a quiet suburban street was like an epic migration and worthy of a memory.

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140 kts over a broad swath entrance/exiting leaving the  MA out ahead of that sharp trough... which is actually associated with the previous wave. Truly extraordinary wind velocities over that region and that orientation @ 500mb. 
 

No wonder this thing ended up a flat dud. Can’t roll out ridging ahead of a trough when you got that kind of fire hose grading everything down. This follow up wave never had any chance of breaking I think the euro saw those extraordinary wind velocity’s and assumed that they were incorrect and tried to smooth those out and that’s why it ended up with it’s previous deeper lie

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

140 kts over a broad swath entrance/exiting leaving the  MA out ahead of that sharp trough... which is actually associated with the previous wave. Truly extraordinary wind velocities over that region and that orientation @ 500mb. 
 

No wonder this thing ended up a flat dud. Can’t roll out bridging ahead of a trough when you got that kind of fire hose grading everything down. This follow up wave never had any chance of breaking I think the euro saw those extraordinary wind velocity’s and assumed that they were incorrect and tried to smooth those out and that’s why it ended up with it’s previous deeper lie

Euro had a closed 5H that's all

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro had a closed 5H that's all

Yeah but the closure should not have been closed ....couldn’t close under the circumstances… And it was also why it lead to more of an impactful looking system was because it had that closure so it compounded its own error .... assuming it does error I mean there’s still a chance It could come back I suppose but I doubt it

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@N. OF PIKE Nice job with this one. 

thanks but it wasn't apparent to me this was a dud until this morning. 

i was simply not buying the Euro handling 5H that much different than every other model at 66 hours out

Everyone knows the rules with a ULL opening up like a tomato can on approach

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

thanks but it wasn't apparent to me this was a dud until this morning. 

i was simply not buying the Euro handling 5H that much different than every other model at 66 hours out

Everyone knows the rules with a ULL opening up like a tomato can on approach

Yea, an attenuating system on approach and a dearth of PNA ridging never engendered much confidence. Dud all of the way with me.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Really good consensus this morning now between ECM/GFS/GGEM/ICON.  

They all show remarkably similar outcomes.  

Still time for it to go to shit though.

I’m heading up to BTV next week-I’m counting on you to keep the wintry appeal going. 

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30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Really good consensus this morning now between ECM/GFS/GGEM/ICON.  

They all show remarkably similar outcomes.  

Still time for it to go to shit though.

Nam 3k was not bad too if you keep this in perspective, It’s a 2-4” event with some seeing another 1-2” more right now.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nam 3k was not bad too if you keep this in perspective, It’s a 2-4” event with some seeing another 1-2” more right now.

Yeah I’ve got 2-5” for the Mtn right now.  I think ratios could be lower with mild-ish boundary layer so those 10:1 maps might be a bit high.  Take 8:1 or so.

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