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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Even on the EPS it was low on 3” probs. The clown maps were too generous as well. Throwing snow down with temps above 0C at 925. Meh

3” probs were over 50%. That isn’t an insignificant number.

It is what it is, I guess we’ll agree to disagree. It blew chunks all over itself in my opinion. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even on the EPS it was low on 3” probs. The clown maps were too generous as well. Throwing snow down with temps above 0C at 925. Meh. You had a garbage airmass to start and we’re relying on dynamics to cool it. You know how that goes.

Right, one run of the Euro with a snow map isn't really a forecast to follow. The EPS did have higher probabilities going back a few runs, but taking > 6" probs from 30% to 0 shouldn't be considered that wild a swing. Even a 70% chance of > 3" is a 1/3 chance you get less.

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Hilarious to me. Just yesterday the meteorologist in Connecticut where like. " Oh, this is going to be a good size Snowstorm for Sunday ". The models were showing a fair amount of snow, to today, looks like the snow chances dropped off to just a couple of mood flakes at the end of it on Sunday. I am not sure what's going on, but, last Year started off with what was supposed to be a great pattern for cold and snow and we didn't get it. This year they were saying a much better pattern than last year definitely going to be a good winter for the Northeast for cold and snow. Northern New England has done well so far, but Southern New England to the Mid-Atlantic not good at all. So much for a good winter. I know it's only the beginning of January, but even the 14-day Outlook is way above normal with not much snow chances. I'm sorry for the rant, I'm just frustrated. But whatever, it's just weather LOL

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15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hilarious to me. Just yesterday the meteorologist in Connecticut where like. " Oh, this is going to be a good size Snowstorm for Sunday ". The models were showing a fair amount of snow, to today, looks like the snow chances dropped off to just a couple of mood flakes at the end of it on Sunday. I am not sure what's going on, but, last Year started off with what was supposed to be a great pattern for cold and snow and we didn't get it. This year they were saying a much better pattern than last year definitely going to be a good winter for the Northeast for cold and snow. Northern New England has done well so far, but Southern New England to the Mid-Atlantic not good at all. So much for a good winter. I know it's only the beginning of January, but even the 14-day Outlook is way above normal with not much snow chances. I'm sorry for the rant, I'm just frustrated. But whatever, it's just weather LOL

NNE has not really done well.  

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Most of the interior has probably already had their biggest snowstorm of the season. 15"+ (20+ in some cases) near and outside the 495 belt for pretty much all of MA and N CT on Dec 1-3. 

Coastline prob has their biggest still to come. 

 

As for this threat, I still say hope for 1-3" and considers that a win given that guidance had powderfreak pond skimming 48-60 hours ago. 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of the interior has probably already had their biggest snowstorm of the season. 15"+ (20+ in some cases) near and outside the 495 belt for pretty much all of MA and N CT on Dec 1-3. 

Coastline prob has their biggest still to come. 

 

As for this threat, I still say hope for 1-3" and considers that a win given that guidance had powderfreak pond skimming 48-60 hours ago. 

I hope so.

5” on 12/3 is the biggest event so far here. 

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it seems like forever when we had a winter where we were comparing pack depth, regionwide, i know some have had a couple of good recent winters with lasting pack, but it seems imby, as soon as the snow melts we get another and it melts and ao on... last winter I remember with a lasting sizable pack was I believe 13-14, the first year we moved to Winsted, and 10-11 was great in Waterbury with that January to remember, who knows, I've seen stranger things happen in meh winters, we could go on a run from mid January to March and be running naked, or we can be tanning napes...

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Just to clarify, is that what you're going with as well? A D/F winter, worse than the last 5 years, below avg snowfall etc..

Our forecast issued late Oct was for slightly BN temps and AN snow Dec, a A to MAN Jan with MBN snows and a return to more sustained winter late Jan with a good first 3 or so weeks in Feb before it breaks for early spring a warm Morch . I see nothing pointing to a long cold spring 
This is for SNE

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Hilarious to me. Just yesterday the meteorologist in Connecticut where like. " Oh, this is going to be a good size Snowstorm for Sunday ". The models were showing a fair amount of snow, to today, looks like the snow chances dropped off to just a couple of mood flakes at the end of it on Sunday. I am not sure what's going on, but, last Year started off with what was supposed to be a great pattern for cold and snow and we didn't get it. This year they were saying a much better pattern than last year definitely going to be a good winter for the Northeast for cold and snow. Northern New England has done well so far, but Southern New England to the Mid-Atlantic not good at all. So much for a good winter. I know it's only the beginning of January, but even the 14-day Outlook is way above normal with not much snow chances. I'm sorry for the rant, I'm just frustrated. But whatever, it's just weather LOL
Hey are we long lost brothers? I could have written this
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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:
1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:
Hilarious to me. Just yesterday the meteorologist in Connecticut where like. " Oh, this is going to be a good size Snowstorm for Sunday ". The models were showing a fair amount of snow, to today, looks like the snow chances dropped off to just a couple of mood flakes at the end of it on Sunday. I am not sure what's going on, but, last Year started off with what was supposed to be a great pattern for cold and snow and we didn't get it. This year they were saying a much better pattern than last year definitely going to be a good winter for the Northeast for cold and snow. Northern New England has done well so far, but Southern New England to the Mid-Atlantic not good at all. So much for a good winter. I know it's only the beginning of January, but even the 14-day Outlook is way above normal with not much snow chances. I'm sorry for the rant, I'm just frustrated. But whatever, it's just weather LOL

Hey are we long lost brothers? I could have written this

Lol. Here I am. Ha

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