CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Brier scores on the Euro greatly outpace the others. What JSPIN is looking for is sensible wx scores. There is a lot of data online available for review. The thing with 500 MB Heights, is that small differences in scores actually could represent rather important differences with spatial outcomes. It may look statistically insignificant, but those differences could represent small differences in placements of ridges and troughs at Day “X” but the sensible wx outcome for a specific point could vary quite a bit based on these differences. In general at day 3 we expect all models in general to show a trough or ridge in the same general place. However a small change in 50 miles of the 500mb 560 height contour, may matter significantly with downstream sensible wx outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I think it will be true here. We aren't getting a big event imo. Nor I " ... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario )," I said I was riding the Euro yesterday but I didn't like the 00z run to be honest and pulled the plug this morning myself... The fast flow is crippling in this case...too much gradient is keeping these/this open and progressive. it's always just a numbers game... either the wave adds enough or not. if not... next. the double wave structure with contentious phasing ain't helpin' neither. I suppose to be fair this one isn't entirely without hope... there's still 60 hours for this to re ...whatever. But frankly I don't know what we would be re-ing as it's been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Brier scores on the Euro greatly outpace the others. What JSPIN is looking for is sensible wx scores. There is a lot of data online available for review. What is a sensible weather score? Inches of snow in your backyard? Because modeled snow is going to be a terrible score. QPF will be bad as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What is a sensible weather score? Inches of snow in your backyard? Because modeled snow is going to be a terrible score. QPF will be bad as well. Scores are higher for cutters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What is a sensible weather score? Inches of snow in your backyard? Because modeled snow is going to be a terrible score. QPF will be bad as well. Mslp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nor I " ... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario )," I said I was riding the Euro yesterday but I didn't like the 00z run to be honest and pulled the plug this morning myself... The fast flow is crippling in this case...too much gradient is keeping these/this open and progressive. it's always just a numbers game... either the wave adds enough or not. if not... next. the double wave structure with contentious phasing ain't helpin' neither. I suppose to be fair this one isn't entirely without hope... there's still 60 hours for this to re ...whatever. But frankly I don't know what we would be re-ing as it's been all over the place. I have never liked more than a couple of inches....still think that is possible, if not likely, despite very paltry 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Scores are higher for cutters! Bias scores as Scooter said have major sensible weather implications. Qpf scores have greatly improved this decade so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Scores are higher for cutters! Isn't that real due to PAC jet extension? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 0-0" here...final call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 With this Euro run... we have a better consensus though - it's just not ... right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: 0-0" here...final call Dude, hyping with such inflated numbers isn't very responsible as a Meteorologist - if you wanna be taking seriously ... you need to learn to go a bit more conservative when the models signal its time to do so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Scores are higher for cutters! I know we joke, but that's obviously the perception. Always verify a cutter never a coastal. But I think it proves the point too. The high res guidance can be variable when there is a small window to thread, but you don't notice the shifts when 500 miles can't even save the event for you. But ask someone outside ORD about that same cutter and they will be talking about how much snow changes run to run. 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mslp? I mean MSLP isn't great either, but it's also not exactly sensible weather. It does work both ways at times, but generally MSLP is really a response to forcing from aloft. If that's the case you can see how there are just more places for a model to fail before getting to that level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 While everyone is busy jumping off bridges, perhaps we can look at the lesson here - which is what I was trying to say earlier this morning when everyone was so ecstatic about one or two runs of the Euro that they convinced themselves that Euro is king and GFS sucks, and if Euro says it's going to snow, of course it's going to happen and this was one for SNE not NNE - forgetting that 12 hours earlier, the Euro said we were in the bullseye. It's hard to keep emotions out of the forecast for us weather enthusiasts. One algorithm spits out a few inches of snow and all of the sudden that's DEFINITELY what's going to happen; someone even said "Euro has been steadfast with this" when if you look back it's bounced more than Pam Anderson in an old episode of BayWatch (I know, dating myself). Then they get worked up because PF, JSping and I "steal people's snow" when in reality, we know it's Diane that does it. And in reality, this is NBD for anyone but if anyone is going to get something, of course chances are it's more likely to happen in NNE than SNE, simply because of climatology - just like a lot more things need to go right for it to snow in DC than SNE. Point is... we all need to chill. OK, done with my useless assessment, back to watching this new episode of bridge-jumping on my favorite channel, AmWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, alex said: While everyone is busy jumping off bridges, perhaps we can look at the lesson here - which is what I was trying to say earlier this morning when everyone was so ecstatic about one or two runs of the Euro that they convinced themselves that Euro is king and GFS sucks, and if Euro says it's going to snow, of course it's going to happen and this was one for SNE not NNE - forgetting that 12 hours earlier, the Euro said we were in the bullseye. It's hard to keep emotions out of the forecast for us weather enthusiasts. One algorithm spits out a few inches of snow and all of the sudden that's DEFINITELY what's going to happen; someone even said "Euro has been steadfast with this" when if you look back it's bounced more than Pam Anderson in an old episode of BayWatch (I know, dating myself). Then they get worked up because PF, JSping and I "steal people's snow" when in reality, we know it's Diane that does it. And in reality, this is NBD for anyone but if anyone is going to get something, of course chances are it's more likely to happen in NNE than SNE, simply because of climatology - just like a lot more things need to go right for it to snow in DC than SNE. Point is... we all need to chill. OK, done with my useless assessment, back to watching this new episode of bridge-jumping on my favorite channel, AmWx. Lol good stuff. Still time for this to go back to a cutter Alex ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eps? Not a lot of hope there either. Not a lot of hits there for SNE, and really not a lot of QPF for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, alex said: While everyone is busy jumping off bridges, perhaps we can look at the lesson here - which is what I was trying to say earlier this morning when everyone was so ecstatic about one or two runs of the Euro that they convinced themselves that Euro is king and GFS sucks, and if Euro says it's going to snow, of course it's going to happen and this was one for SNE not NNE - forgetting that 12 hours earlier, the Euro said we were in the bullseye. It's hard to keep emotions out of the forecast for us weather enthusiasts. One algorithm spits out a few inches of snow and all of the sudden that's DEFINITELY what's going to happen; someone even said "Euro has been steadfast with this" when if you look back it's bounced more than Pam Anderson in an old episode of BayWatch (I know, dating myself). Then they get worked up because PF, JSping and I "steal people's snow" when in reality, we know it's Diane that does it. And in reality, this is NBD for anyone but if anyone is going to get something, of course chances are it's more likely to happen in NNE than SNE, simply because of climatology - just like a lot more things need to go right for it to snow in DC than SNE. Point is... we all need to chill. OK, done with my useless assessment, back to watching this new episode of bridge-jumping on my favorite channel, AmWx. Bold is the only lesson in this... just imho - In a philosophical twist though, the GFS was the best model - if things go on to be the lame ass showing as it looks to be... Because why? regardless of how we get there, that shit panache has been jammed down our throats by the GFS the whole way... Maybe it doesn't get points for consistency in butt bangin', but for the essence of the act its self? it's been servicing inches far more consistently and prodigiously than this thing appears destined to snow. almost funny - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol good stuff. Still time for this to go back to a cutter Alex ha So true! And if it does, there will be more chances shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eps? It actually doesn't look terrible at TT .. Looks like it'd be a start as rain... collapse to brief snow and then may pound SE zones for a couple hours upon exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol good stuff. Still time for this to go back to a cutter Alex ha Not that would be comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Boy what a melt in here the last few hours. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Boy what a melt in here the last few hours. Like you always say "it's gonna' snow where it wants to snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Boy what a melt in here the last few hours. Snow business is serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not a lot of hope there either. Not a lot of hits there for SNE, and really not a lot of QPF for NNE. As in not even 1-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 18z Nam throws us some sympathy flakes Sunday morning....no stickage of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As in not even 1-3? It's not a black and white. There is a chance of 1-3" but it's not a good chance. Straight EPS is like 30% for 1+ and 10% for 3+. I think my forecast at the moment would be sub-advisory, and if we have to work up from there we can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 This whole thing was so marginal to begin with, and it’s not like the euro dropped 18 to 24 inches only to bring it back down to 2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 It’s still gonna snow weens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This whole thing was so marginal to begin with, and it’s not like the euro dropped 18 to 24 inches only to bring it back down to 2 inches. Well, to be fair, it also had a pretty significant impact, especially south as of 6z. This isn’t 150 hours out... it doesn’t need to go from 24” to 2”. Sensible weather is completely different for a system 2-3 days out. That’s a fail in my book. Calling a spade a spade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Well, to be fair, it also had a pretty significant impact, especially south as of 6z. This isn’t 150 hours out... it doesn’t need to go from 24” to 2”. Sensible weather is completely different for a system 2-3 days out. That’s a fail in my book. Calling a spade a spade Even on the EPS it was low on 3” probs. The clown maps were too generous as well. Throwing snow down with temps above 0C at 925. Meh. You had a garbage airmass to start and we’re relying on dynamics to cool it. You know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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