Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 1-3" is a good starting point....Maybe it can trend into a 2-4", but not confident. Yeap, that's what I'm going with, 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Do you know why I pulled you over? Hide contents You are obsessed with Anthony, bad police experience? Did a cop steal a chicken or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Storm after looks better. Ya, for a few more runs until it loses it too. Seems to happen every time now unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: That's really new because I checked for soundings from them the other day. I wish they had the text available for that. I'd like to know what all of the levels are. Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: We need it to be cold and snowy for the playoff game in Foxboro anyway game is Saturday..cold, but not snowy I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those soundings are a little coarse, but shit... A clear H4 on there even without my glasses on. So it's at least the mandatory levels...maybe more? Looks like an H8 in there above H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I am shocked Pivotal has these They're great, but only really useful if they have those sneaky non-manditory layers between 850 and 700mb that often have the warm nose. Also, seems like they might be moving towards paid subscription at some point given all the fancy stuff they've added recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Yeap, that's what I'm going with, 2-4" I think that’s reasonable away from the water. Without dynamics interior will do better than coast. Maybe EPS will be a bit better than op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You are obsessed with Anthony, bad police experience? Did a cop steal a chicken or 2? Love me some metfan and ctblizz. It's all in fun and they're good sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: They're great, but only really useful if they have those sneaky non-manditory layers between 850 and 700mb that often have the warm nose. Also, seems like they might be moving towards paid subscription at some point given all the fancy stuff they've added recently. According to the banner at the top of the site it seems like they are trying to keep it free if people can support them through Patreon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: They're great, but only really useful if they have those sneaky non-manditory layers between 850 and 700mb that often have the warm nose. Also, seems like they might be moving towards paid subscription at some point given all the fancy stuff they've added recently. The temp levels look more sparse than the wind barb ones. We've come a long way with ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: A clear H4 on there even without my glasses on. So it's at least the mandatory levels...maybe more? Looks like an H8 in there above H85. I would like to know too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: A clear H4 on there even without my glasses on. So it's at least the mandatory levels...maybe more? Looks like an H8 in there above H85. Looks like 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 850, 925 and sfc from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Plenty o time left. 1 run and all. Final solutions TBD. End result will probably be be a bit better than that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that’s reasonable away from the water. Without dynamics interior will do better than coast. Maybe EPS will be a bit better than op Gonna need dynamics to cool what is a cooked atmosphere before it'll snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12Z vs. 00Z. Just some subtle tweaks... 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: End result will probably be be a bit better than that run. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Gonna need dynamics to cool what is a cooked atmosphere before it'll snow. Interior is in great shape if qpf is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: The way it works is the euro will nail every gridpoint under a ridge, but will lose the the 15 points in the heart of the ULL. Nobody loves hard data more than me, so I think it’s awesome when people post these to speak to the “model X is better than model Y” weenie-ness. However, there are at least a couple of points that people never really seem to drive home sufficiently for me: 1) How does model performance with respect to 500 hPa correlation (which I’m assuming is analyzed globally for the 20° – 80° N region in these data sets?) actually relate to the model’s effectiveness as a guidance tool for sensible weather at the surface? Beyond that of course, how much utility is there in that analysis for the model’s region-specific performance for a certain part of the globe? 2) So you’ve already got the above factors in play, and then, how are you going to convince me that a couple of hundredths of a difference in correlation coefficient is even relevant? The trend in model difference (and actually a bit of correlation improvement) is clear over the course of those years, and with so much data, the stats may be there to support a statistical difference between the anomaly correlation of the two models. Regardless of that outcome though, it still doesn’t speak to the relevance of a 0.03 difference in correlation coefficient to the actual utility of the models. Again, I love when people post these types of data, but I’d like to hear more about whether or not they actually speak to a realistic difference in model performance that matters to forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Nobody loves hard data more than me, so I think it’s awesome when people post these to speak to the “model X is better than model Y” weenie-ness. However, there are at least a couple of points that people never really seem to drive home sufficiently for me: 1) How does model performance with respect to 500 hPa correlation (which I’m assuming is analyzed globally for the 20° – 80° N region in these data sets?) actually relate to the model’s effectiveness as a guidance tool for sensible weather at the surface? Beyond that of course, how much utility is there in that analysis for the model’s region-specific performance for a certain part of the globe? 2) So you’ve already got the above factors in play, and then, how are you going to convince me that a couple of hundredths of a difference in correlation coefficient is even relevant? The trend in model difference (and actually a bit of correlation improvement) is clear over the course of those years, and with so much data, the stats may be there to support a statistical difference between the anomaly correlation of the two models. Regardless of that outcome though, it still doesn’t speak to the relevance of a 0.03 difference in correlation coefficient to the actual utility of the models. Again, I love when people post these types of data, but I’d like to hear more about whether or not they actually speak to a realistic difference in model performance that matters to forecasting. I can't speak to the specifics but I'm pretty sure the differences are statically significant, despite the AC difference being a small number. And overall you're right, that 500 heights don't always translate to sensible weather. QPF is not a good metric for models. It's better than it used to be, but still one of the worst variables to predict. Typically models are better at finding a window QPF will occur, but bad at finding the right amount of QPF. Think of it this way. Whether you get a wound up coastal with 1" QPF or a fropa with 0.01" in snow showers the model still had the trough for that period. High AC score, low QPF score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Interior is in great shape if qpf is there I disagree. You're going to need a stout system to overcome the torched atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I disagree. You're going to need a stout system to overcome the torched atmosphere. It’s not torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I can't speak to the specifics but I'm pretty sure the differences are statically significant, despite the AC difference being a small number. And overall you're right, that 500 heights don't always translate to sensible weather. QPF is not a good metric for models. It's better than it used to be, but still one of the worst variables to predict. Typically models are better at finding a window QPF will occur, but bad at finding the right amount of QPF. Think of it this way. Whether you get a wound up coastal with 1" QPF or a fropa with 0.01" in snow showers the model still had the trough for that period. High AC score, low QPF score. Brier scores on the Euro greatly outpace the others. What JSPIN is looking for is sensible wx scores. There is a lot of data online available for review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 funny how it went from a raging cutter to a cold nothingburger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12z EPS 3"+ probabilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 30 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 12Z vs. 00Z. Just some subtle tweaks... That is so bad. So freaking bad 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not torched Look torched to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I disagree. You're going to need a stout system to overcome the torched atmosphere. and right now we don't have either..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Should serve as an example that phasing is still really tricky for any of the models to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 At least this isn’t a huge Rainer and 50s. Welp. Back to the panic room for a couple days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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