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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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This is a quick moving NJ Model low in this 12z oper. Euro ...might approach bombogen criteria, but probably rapid enough either way to clip the region with middling concerns.

Others are right... there's going to be some height fall requirement/but 850 mb pulling down cold from the N once that and the 700 surface are closing off would likely accelerates that. Airs some semblance to me of November 1986.  

This has a pretty potent frontogenic signature there, even using the poor granularity of the free-bee products that is discernible. With a 500 surface closing and heights falling with cyclogen kick-back, destablization in a band or two gives some meso/thunder concerns - but I may be too optimistic with deepening rates.  Close call! 

Anyway, inside of D4 on the Euro is typically in 80th percentile for correct... There may be times where it has performed worse, but there are enough where it's 90 or better...it's a got a solid and reasonably dependability for 84 to 96 lead. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

8th looking mighty tempting too. Lets keep the cutter to coastal trends coming and save Jan.

These last couple modeled cutters have morphed into winter events, But you would have to think the odds are good of that happening when you have a good 6 or so cutters previously modeled that you could get at least a few to work out.........;)

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That run would have hit Kevin's area hard and prob NE CT. 

I definitely want to see another tick south. We don't want that primary shortwave being too dominant. I have a feeling that it will be though...but even with that said, we could pick up an inch or two on the back end. 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That run would have hit Kevin's area hard and prob NE CT. 

I definitely want to see another tick south. We don't want that primary shortwave being too dominant. I have a feeling that it will be though...but even with that said, we could pick up an inch or two on the back end. 

 

Yeah you can see this in NAM/GFS. Any trend towards that and it's scraps for us. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That run would have hit Kevin's area hard and prob NE CT. 

I definitely want to see another tick south. We don't want that primary shortwave being too dominant. I have a feeling that it will be though...but even with that said, we could pick up an inch or two on the back end. 

 

exactly and the 12z EURO trended towards the primary being more dominant which torches southern CT.   

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