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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's a big shift in 6 hrs. 

You know what the models might be sensing is the presence of that upper vortex over the northern Great Lakes stuck in the northern branch flow pattern and just sits and pivots over northwestern Ontario province.  That could be leading to a less amplified solution and therefore the flow remains progressive as the upper vortex speeds the flow over the eastern US and western Atlantic until it hits the buckle in the flow as it heads towards Newfoundland.  The second trough in the next five to seven days, looks to have legit room to amplify on the Eastern Seaboard, the GFS and CMC might be feeling too amped right now.

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I wouldn't get to worked up over the OP run, When i saw it shift H5 yesterday at 12z 300 or so miles south at 18z, Kind of raised an eyebrow to that, Very uncharacteristic of the Euro and then just made another huge shift today from 06z, It looked a lot like today's 12z Ukie, Ride the ensembles for now.

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Just now, dryslot said:

I wouldn't get to worked up over the OP run, When i saw it shift H5 yesterday at 12z 300 or so miles south at 18z, Kind of raised an eyebrow to that, Very uncharacteristic of the Euro and then just made another huge shift today from 06z, It looked a lot like today's 12z Ukie, Ride the ensembles for now.

Fugly 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just for the general information... this is not entirely true.  There are plenty of examples of flat ridge eastern bombs in the KU reference guides and other historical sources for that matter.  It certainly helps, and, in the majority of eastern north american, significant cyclogenesis events, you will in fact have some form of a western north american positive geopotential anomaly. However,  there is another factor in play (... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario ), and it has to do with whether the flow is compressed in the east... At times more so than others... and if an ejected wave in question does so into a relaxed H500 mb isohypses layout, those have the best chance at creating their own lead S/W ridge roll-out and inducing the wave break without the large scale wave/positive/constructive interference feed-back. ..complex.

There is a broader, longer termed systemic problem related to that... where the expanded Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes is increasing the ambient compression, speeding up of the ambient flow; that factor is robbing from S/W mechanics because the speed maxes are not differentiating as proficiently as they did in the middle part of last century. 

 

Well, I think it will be true here.

We aren't getting a big event imo.

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