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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is a little disorganized too, although some snow to end. Basically it digs the ULL very far south and is stretched. As a result you do not get rapid cyclogenesis and the srfc low is stretched. It doesn't allow the comma head to really wrap up like the euro. We'll see what the euro does. Sometimes the GFS and GEM don't do well with these intricate processes, but we've seen the euro back off at times too. 

Since it was a whiff the last couple of runs, that sounds like big improvement.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is the exact type of storm that’s in Euro wheelhouse. Historically speaking . It handles these well overall . It struggles on clippers and overrunning type deals 

I wish they never upgraded the model. It has blown so many storms lately.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I wish they never upgraded the model. It has blown so many storms lately.

I think we microanalyze these things because of all the info that is readily available. 4 runs per day of clown maps for 5 days straight comparing it with 27 other models, you’re bound to be let down at some point. It did choke on big events for us (Jan 15, Jan 16) so that certainly adds to your idea but it’s still the lead dog. It’s just not a perfect science, never will be. Some expect it, unfortunately. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think we microanalyze these things because of all the info that is readily available. 4 runs per day of clown maps for 5 days straight comparing it with 27 other models, you’re bound to be let down at some point. It did choke on big events for us (Jan 15, Jan 16) so that certainly adds to your idea but it’s still the lead dog. It’s just not a perfect science, never will be. Some expect it, unfortunately. 

I think it's a impossibility to expect a relatively high resolution model (13 km) to lock in a solution for days on end or even run to run. Increased resolution can lead to increased variability in models. It's why we preach focusing on the larger scale features (i.e. jet, heights, etc), they are more likely to be stable than smaller scale features (i.e. QPF -> snow).

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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

1-3 slushy inches around here...3-6 northern parts of the state, we all know its going north.

Agree. Go with the seasonal trend until it bucks. Though Ginxy’s h5 rule takes precedence here so we weigh a tick snowier.

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re going to need tons of spices to cover up the smell of shit from the 30%.

Inject any shit and the whole thing smells like...shit. Point made.

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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not at all. But Expectations all along where minimal. 1-3” for just inland and 3-6” for the pike region with some higher lolis. One weenie euro run shouldn’t change that. 

I’d Weigh euro MUCH less than 70% percent here and 3-6” ain’t happening for pike region. 

I would say it’s had correct idea w Southern track and gfs is clueless but euro’s mid levels ain’t happening and that means a lot in this set up 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I think it's a impossibility to expect a relatively high resolution model (13 km) to lock in a solution for days on end or even run to run. Increased resolution can lead to increased variability in models. It's why we preach focusing on the larger scale features (i.e. jet, heights, etc), they are more likely to be stable than smaller scale features (i.e. QPF -> snow).

There is value in knowing that there is a storm (of some kind) in the first place.  Despite the variable details across the various models, that's huge as it is. Of course we need specifics for our practical weather but we need other skill for that.  And that's the fun part...Humans!  ;-)  

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Note how all the non-Euro guidance does not have a close h5 low south of SNE. 06z Euro had it closed off multiple times. 

Thats why the other models suck for snow down here and have this stripe of advisory snow to maybe low end warning for CNE instead.

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