OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Thanks, I had forgotten about this site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is a little disorganized too, although some snow to end. Basically it digs the ULL very far south and is stretched. As a result you do not get rapid cyclogenesis and the srfc low is stretched. It doesn't allow the comma head to really wrap up like the euro. We'll see what the euro does. Sometimes the GFS and GEM don't do well with these intricate processes, but we've seen the euro back off at times too. Since it was a whiff the last couple of runs, that sounds like big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just through work on our energy trader site. Ahh thanks, I'm still downloading the grids over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 This is the exact type of storm that’s in Euro wheelhouse. Historically speaking . It handles these well overall . It struggles on clippers and overrunning type deals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This is the exact type of storm that’s in Euro wheelhouse. Historically speaking . It handles these well overall Not this time we will check back at 1:15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is the exact type of storm that’s in Euro wheelhouse. Historically speaking . It handles these well overall . It struggles on clippers and overrunning type deals I wish they never upgraded the model. It has blown so many storms lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Weigh euro 70% and mix in the other trash...you get the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weigh euro 70% and mix in the other trash...you get the result. 1-3 slushy inches around here...3-6 northern parts of the state, we all know its going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weigh euro 70% and mix in the other trash...you get the result. That logic equates to a mildly trashy result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weigh euro 70% and mix in the other trash...you get the result. You’re going to need tons of spices to cover up the smell of shit from the 30%. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I wish they never upgraded the model. It has blown so many storms lately. I think we microanalyze these things because of all the info that is readily available. 4 runs per day of clown maps for 5 days straight comparing it with 27 other models, you’re bound to be let down at some point. It did choke on big events for us (Jan 15, Jan 16) so that certainly adds to your idea but it’s still the lead dog. It’s just not a perfect science, never will be. Some expect it, unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah. I live in Canada but I work for a private company not ECCC, so I don't have any special data access. Oh, Ok, happy new year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Yeah, this is far from a lock down here. The last few events trended North at the last minute, keep expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: That logic equates to a mildly trashy result. Not at all. But Expectations all along where minimal. 1-3” for just inland and 3-6” for the pike region with some higher lolis. One weenie euro run shouldn’t change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think we microanalyze these things because of all the info that is readily available. 4 runs per day of clown maps for 5 days straight comparing it with 27 other models, you’re bound to be let down at some point. It did choke on big events for us (Jan 15, Jan 16) so that certainly adds to your idea but it’s still the lead dog. It’s just not a perfect science, never will be. Some expect it, unfortunately. I think it's a impossibility to expect a relatively high resolution model (13 km) to lock in a solution for days on end or even run to run. Increased resolution can lead to increased variability in models. It's why we preach focusing on the larger scale features (i.e. jet, heights, etc), they are more likely to be stable than smaller scale features (i.e. QPF -> snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: 1-3 slushy inches around here...3-6 northern parts of the state, we all know its going north. Agree. Go with the seasonal trend until it bucks. Though Ginxy’s h5 rule takes precedence here so we weigh a tick snowier. 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: You’re going to need tons of spices to cover up the smell of shit from the 30%. Inject any shit and the whole thing smells like...shit. Point made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Next panel and precip tells the story buh bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12z guidance so far kind of makes you think the euro is going to cave, at least some. Even a small cave results in a negligible event here. We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Uncle is way fast and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 12z guidance so far kind of makes you think the euro is going to cave, at least some. Even a small cave results in a negligible event here. We’ll see I blame you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Old school GEFS look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I blame you. Yeah I get positive about one event and it starts going to shit . Negativity will resume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not at all. But Expectations all along where minimal. 1-3” for just inland and 3-6” for the pike region with some higher lolis. One weenie euro run shouldn’t change that. I’d Weigh euro MUCH less than 70% percent here and 3-6” ain’t happening for pike region. I would say it’s had correct idea w Southern track and gfs is clueless but euro’s mid levels ain’t happening and that means a lot in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think it's a impossibility to expect a relatively high resolution model (13 km) to lock in a solution for days on end or even run to run. Increased resolution can lead to increased variability in models. It's why we preach focusing on the larger scale features (i.e. jet, heights, etc), they are more likely to be stable than smaller scale features (i.e. QPF -> snow). There is value in knowing that there is a storm (of some kind) in the first place. Despite the variable details across the various models, that's huge as it is. Of course we need specifics for our practical weather but we need other skill for that. And that's the fun part...Humans! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I think we might see the balance of posts shift to the discussion thread for next week soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d Weigh euro MUCH less than 70% percent here and 3-6” ain’t happening for pike region. I’d give euro/eps majority of the weight, whatever the percentages come out to. I do expect the op to come back some, that’s already baked in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Note how all the non-Euro guidance does not have a close h5 low south of SNE. 06z Euro had it closed off multiple times. Thats why the other models suck for snow down here and have this stripe of advisory snow to maybe low end warning for CNE instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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