Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems to have slowed significantly on the UK. One thing I really do not like about this system is how it opens up at H5 on approach...its attenuating due to the transient PNA ridge being eviscerated. It looks like the lead up to a NE blizzard on Saturday...but poof. 1-2" pike points N on UK. I think that is reasonable. Just for the general information... this is not entirely true. There are plenty of examples of flat ridge eastern bombs in the KU reference guides and other historical sources for that matter. It certainly helps, and, in the majority of eastern north american, significant cyclogenesis events, you will in fact have some form of a western north american positive geopotential anomaly. However, there is another factor in play (... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario ), and it has to do with whether the flow is compressed in the east... At times more so than others... and if an ejected wave in question does so into a relaxed H500 mb isohypses layout, those have the best chance at creating their own lead S/W ridge roll-out and inducing the wave break without the large scale wave/positive/constructive interference feed-back. ..complex. There is a broader, longer termed systemic problem related to that... where the expanded Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes is increasing the ambient compression, speeding up of the ambient flow; that factor is robbing from S/W mechanics because the speed maxes are not differentiating as proficiently as they did in the middle part of last century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 By the way ...i'm not sure if anyones noticed this...but I f-up routinely and "prematurely" post... I hate that. I keep posting two sentences by accident like palsy or something... then I have to scramble and finish the missives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, Whineminster said: The way people are excited about this and talking about all this bombing and great positioning it's like we're getting 18-24". Not 4" to 6". we can't get excited for 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: we can't get excited for 4-6"? Does your significant other? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 SNE stealing my snow left and right. It’s like my house is broken into so much now that I just leave the door unlocked so I don’t have to replace anymore windows. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE. I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Does your significant other? everyday! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE. I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here. Mitch and AFN. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 We will ignore the NAM today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Mitch and AFN. Lock it i. I dunno, that puts us at >40% with a chance at a bump north. Could be we get the inland band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE. ... I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here. But the common denominator is someone is getting skunked - awesome ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We will ignore the NAM today. It basically is the same idea as the Euro. It just develops everything 18-30 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I actually like the day 5 threat more for SNE and coastal peeps like myself. Cold air will be established and the trough will be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It basically is the same idea as the Euro. It just develops everything 18-30 hours later NAM is a lot quicker in the flow now, with the day 4-5 system right on its heels in the northern Great Lakes with snow breaking out over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by hour 84, that system could become the miller B snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM is a lot quicker in the flow now, with the day 4-5 system right on its heels in the northern Great Lakes with snow breaking out over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by hour 84, that system could become the miller B snowstorm. Yes could become the dawn awakening storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The NAM at 84hr, now there's a solid choice 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We will ignore the NAM today. We analyze it when we desperate...and I don’t think we are quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE. I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here. Ok, that’s no bueno for about 90% of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We analyze it when we desperate...and I don’t think we are quite there yet. It is still a piece of the puzzle. However that clipper over the Great Lakes looks very ominous at the surface and at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Yes could become the dawn awakening storm maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: The way people are excited about this and talking about all this bombing and great positioning it's like we're getting 18-24". Not 4" to 6". That would double my season to date. It is exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 That NAM backed off the 06z S/W strength relaying off the Pac ( now ..) and that translates eventually into less ability to torque the flow and get things happening faster ... once that crucial bit of wave space succeeds the Mid Atlantic. The flow is so fast and compressed already that weaker waves pancake when they incur into the TV ...or attempt to, and then concomitantly slope positive.. = poop It would probably come down to excruciatingly tedious/minute sounding/grid initialization differences and probably NCEP wouldn't dig that deep. Could just imagine them writing, "DIFFERENCES DO NOT APPEAR TO EFFECT THE PROCESSING OF NAM" when it's clear there's a difference to everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Ok, that’s no bueno for about 90% of CT. Still has pretty decent probabilities for most of the state for > 3". But if you're looking for a stripe of warning criteria snow I wouldn't be painting it through SNE or the NNE mountains yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Still has pretty decent probabilities for most of the state for > 3". But if you're looking for a stripe of warning criteria snow I wouldn't be painting it through SNE or the NNE mountains yet. I'll take 3. Do you have that map available? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We will ignore the NAM today. pretty much same as last few run, paltry.. but still 70hrs plus.. I trust the euro more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is still a piece of the puzzle. However that clipper over the Great Lakes looks very ominous at the surface and at H5. Until you realize you're looking at the wrong puzzle.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'll take 3. Do you have that map available? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nice--thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'll take 3. Do you have that map available? Thanks! Each member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Long range RDPS keeps things weak until east of the coast, making this more of a CNE story. http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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