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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems to have slowed significantly on the UK.

One thing I really do not like about this system is how it opens up at H5 on approach...its attenuating due to the transient PNA ridge being eviscerated. It looks like the lead up to a NE blizzard on Saturday...but poof.

1-2" pike points N on UK.

I think that is reasonable.

Just for the general information... this is not entirely true.  There are plenty of examples of flat ridge eastern bombs in the KU reference guides and other historical sources for that matter.  It certainly helps, and, in the majority of eastern north american, significant cyclogenesis events, you will in fact have some form of a western north american positive geopotential anomaly. However,  there is another factor in play (... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario ), and it has to do with whether the flow is compressed in the east... At times more so than others... and if an ejected wave in question does so into a relaxed H500 mb isohypses layout, those have the best chance at creating their own lead S/W ridge roll-out and inducing the wave break without the large scale wave/positive/constructive interference feed-back. ..complex.

There is a broader, longer termed systemic problem related to that... where the expanded Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes is increasing the ambient compression, speeding up of the ambient flow; that factor is robbing from S/W mechanics because the speed maxes are not differentiating as proficiently as they did in the middle part of last century. 

 

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Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-835520

I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here.

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-835520

I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here.

Mitch and AFN. Lock it in. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE.

...

I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here.

But the common denominator is someone is getting skunked - 

awesome ...

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

It basically is the same idea as the Euro.  It just develops everything 18-30 hours later 

NAM is a lot quicker in the flow now, with the day 4-5 system right on its heels in the northern Great Lakes with snow breaking out over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by hour 84, that system could become the miller B snowstorm.

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

NAM is a lot quicker in the flow now, with the day 4-5 system right on its heels in the northern Great Lakes with snow breaking out over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by hour 84, that system could become the miller B snowstorm.

Yes could become the dawn awakening storm

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21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Still quite a bit of variability in the EPS members. Some skunk SNE, others skunk NNE.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-835520

I like the location of EPS probabilities of > 6" for the highest potential corridor right now. I would say because there is a bit of a bi-modal distribution of north or south members, the actual probability of > 6" is likely higher where it snows, it's just getting smoothed out here.

Ok, that’s no bueno for about 90% of CT.

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That NAM backed off the 06z S/W strength relaying off the Pac ( now ..) and that translates eventually into less ability to torque the flow and get things happening faster ... once that crucial bit of wave space succeeds the Mid Atlantic.  The flow is so fast and compressed already that weaker waves pancake when they incur into the TV ...or attempt to, and then concomitantly slope positive.. = poop

It would probably come down to excruciatingly tedious/minute sounding/grid initialization differences and probably NCEP wouldn't dig that deep.  Could just imagine them writing, "DIFFERENCES DO NOT APPEAR TO EFFECT THE PROCESSING OF NAM" when it's clear there's a difference to everyone else :axe:

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11 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Ok, that’s no bueno for about 90% of CT.

Still has pretty decent probabilities for most of the state for > 3".

But if you're looking for a stripe of warning criteria snow I wouldn't be painting it through SNE or the NNE mountains yet.

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