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Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread


Bostonseminole
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8 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Seems like we can easily trend away from a snowy solution with this shitty airmass ahead of the storm and no real semblance of a strong HP to the north. What is the mechanism for the snow solution? Seems like we are relying on dynamics to get er done?

One bite everyone knows the rule 

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Boy that 00z Euro solution was a quick mover ...  so fast, in fact, my first impression was that the rains snow line would be moving east across the area at the same rate its ending...  

See-ya!  

But, the Euro being 24 hrly frames for use as poor boys ... may just sneak in several hours.  And the 06z ... right - forgot about that. 

The 06z GFS is relaying the S/W over B.C. ... the Euro is naturally going to be detecting that in its grids, too.  It's worth it to guess that a sudden small, yet crucially more potent morphology transitory down east of the U.S. could be related to that detection.  And, if the 12z may yet offer more. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

H7 couldn’t be more perfect.  Damn this can be fun if it’s timed when people are awake!

Just where we want it 4 days out.  :)

Seriously though--the way this has evolved each model run, I'd view this with caution.  If there were any type of blocking, I'd be more confident.  Without it, who knows what the 12z models will do. 

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