moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM looks like ka-ka. It's okay in a 20-30 mile wide stripe from like RUT to dendrite to IZG or so...but overall pretty disjointed...never gets a good CCB cranking. How are the srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM looks like ka-ka. It's okay in a 20-30 mile wide stripe from like RUT to dendrite to IZG or so...but overall pretty disjointed...never gets a good CCB cranking. Low’s busted open between convection out at sea and the Q-G forcing back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Well 0z so far not wonderful. That said, it seems most get at least a touch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Icon is weaker.... not as good as 18z... but not horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well 0z so far not wonderful. That said, it seems most get at least a touch of snow. that was based on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 to many change every model run or their forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: that was based on the NAM? And ICON. GFS making moves still but solution seems robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 GFS is still hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Yeah gfs is making small moves but not even close to being enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Gfs is an improvement... but we’re going to need more than minor shifts at this range to make this an impactful event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Hopefully the euro has a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hopefully the euro has a clue it's good to have it on our side, rather than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: it's good to have it on our side, rather than GFS Yeah we’ll see... or we’ll get slight shifts toward a gfs like solution and see posts like “euro had it all along” etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah gfs is making small moves but not even close to being enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: it's good to have it on our side, rather than GFS None of them have a clue given Euro’s move from 12z to 18z we hedge slightly N and maybe a hair weaker at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 NAM wasn't that bad.. had a pretty large snow shield. GFS was way north with best stuff north of here. CAD signature with lower latitude snow in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 GEM is still really far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 So far... NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: So far... NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas. So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here. Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Uk should be out soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here. Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow May be warming snow for southern areas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here. Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow There’s been zero consensus on every Storm this season so far Inside day 4. Not one system it seems has had any consensus at this range this season. It’s the year of pick which model you like...cuz they all show something totally different at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: May be warming snow for southern areas lol I’m not convinced of anything really. I’ll be honest... I don’t hate the setup for at least something in SNE... especially with the euro pretty steadfast in that. I guess it comes down to weather it’s a graze with some slop, or more substantial. You can at least see a path to a solid event here, it’s not totally out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here. Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not convinced of anything really. I’ll be honest... I don’t hate the setup for at least something in SNE... especially with the euro pretty steadfast in that. I guess it comes down to weather it’s a graze with some slop, or more substantial. You can at least see a path to a solid event here, it’s not totally out of the question Well it was only yesterday that if we saw some flakes at the end it was a victory/success. So I guess if you go back to that idea, then even some slop is good..right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: So far... NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas. can you post the RGEM, i forgot how to do that 84hr trick. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: May be warming snow for southern areas lol love me some good warming snow. makes me feel all fuzzy and warm inside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: There’s been zero consensus on every Storm this season so far Inside day 4. Not one system it seems has had any consensus at this range this season. It’s the year of pick which model you like...cuz they all show something totally different at 90 hours. All that considered, ECMWF is still the king, and id hedge on that more than anything. The biggest mistake i ever made was tossing it out completely on 3/21/18. It was Euro on island vs. everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Ukie is 993mb off the central New Jersey coast a hour 72 I don't have to thermals but temperatures should be crashing from this point forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: All that considered, ECMWF is still the king, and id hedge on that more than anything. The biggest mistake i ever made was tossing it out completely on 3/21/18. It was Euro on island vs. everything else. Oh I agree for the most part. But it’s shat on itself just a couple weeks ago, so it’s struggled of late too. I was speaking of “Consensus” as T Blizz was commenting on..there’s been none this season so far on any system at this relatively closer in time frame, Which is rather weird. When the Euro is showing something positive for a few runs in a row, at this closer in time frame..I’m certainly liking having IT on our side rather than any of the other models. If the Ukie is with it, it lends even more positive support. Let’s hope it doesn’t start wavering the other direction again? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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