Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 UKIE looks good for rain to snow event, first of 2020! https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20200105-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Will be watching over the next 18 to 24 hours as there is an important piece of atmospheric dynamics relaying off the Pacific ocean up there over the mid/lower B.C. coast/western Canada, and sometimes ...though rarely given advancements in data assimilation techniques, those features will come on board and offer/force morphologies down stream, because they are either weaker or stronger than said assimilations -"assimilation" in this context means... in a dearth of physical/emperical measurements, they use a combination of (usually) satellite soundings, and numerical interpolation. Anyway, a stronger s/w injected into the fray in the TV may force a more proficient phase like the Euro - and these interactions are very sensitive to minor fluctuations, too. The Euro has been more consolidated in the Tennessee Valley area ...demonstrating a more proficient phasing between said follow-up dynamics, and the residual trough that's pushing through that region .. 72 to 84 hours from 00z run. It's unclear why it did that, where the other model types show more negative interference and less phasing... causing the trough to be less capable of igniting substantive cyclogen in time - like the Euro is. The UKMET showing up more leaned in that Euro's favor is telling, ..offering perhaps some intuitive notion that the Euro superior assimilation/correction schematics overall may be helpful here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 12z Ukie actually was north of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 EPS keeps tick tick ticking colder each run. Jackman never gets above freezing at 850 mb now, even on the probability maps. Still a decent CAD signal Saturday. Despite the EPS mean being above freezing there are some probabilities for below in there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Ukie actually was north of the 0z run. Yeah that weird offshore bias continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that weird offshore bias continues. It looked a little like 12z GGEM but that was well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Will be watching over the next 18 to 24 hours as there is an important piece of atmospheric dynamics relaying off the Pacific ocean up there over the mid/lower B.C. coast/western Canada, and sometimes ...though rarely given advancements in data assimilation techniques, those features will come on board and offer/force morphologies down stream, because they are either weaker or stronger than said assimilations -"assimilation" in this context means... in a dearth of physical/emperical measurements, they use a combination of (usually) satellite soundings, and numerical interpolation. Anyway, a stronger s/w injected into the fray in the TV may force a more proficient phase like the Euro - and these interactions are very sensitive to minor fluctuations, too. The Euro has been more consolidated in the Tennessee Valley area ...demonstrating a more proficient phasing between said follow-up dynamics, and the residual trough that's pushing through that region .. 72 to 84 hours from 00z run. It's unclear why it did that, where the other model types show more negative interference and less phasing... causing the trough to be less capable of igniting substantive cyclogen in time - like the Euro is. The UKMET showing up more leaned in that Euro's favor is telling, ..offering perhaps some intuitive notion that the Euro superior assimilation/correction schematics overall may be helpful here. Could have more of an impact once its sampled one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Could have more of an impact once its sampled one way or the other. Ensemble sensitivity was focused around that piece from the Pacific too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Ensemble sensitivity was focused around that piece from the Pacific too. When does it get into Raobs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: When does it get into Raobs? Possibly in time for 00z this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 That would be warning snow on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Euro looks nice. Good hit nrn CT to CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 That does appear to be a CCB formulation attempt there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 yeah, we struggle here hopefully we trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 That SLP gets down to 974mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro looks nice. Good hit nrn CT to CNE/NNE. Half messing , but we may find you at the Tobin after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 That actually looks ok for a lot of SNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Half messing , but we may find you at the Tobin after this one. Meh, if I get 1-2 I'm fine. Just make it pasty white. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: That actually looks ok for a lot of SNE as well. Yes it does as heights crash to the coast as the low bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Colder than 0z for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 981 at the BM, excellent CCB, we ULL love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 There is definitely a battle between an initial s/w that the GFS and NAM have in Ohio that drive the low into NY and redevelop over SNE..vs Euro and other guidance. If the euro tries to compromise it's definitely a more congrats PF and CYUL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks nice. Good hit nrn CT to CNE/NNE. Let's do it. I'll shovel one more time before I'm shoveling ice into my boat drinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: 70/30 compromise and congrats CNE Yeah you favor them for now, but some snow certainly possible to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is definitely a battle between an initial s/w that the GFS and NAM have in Ohio that drive the low into NY and redevelop over SNE..vs Euro and other guidance. If the euro tries to compromise it's definitely a more congrats PF and CYUL. Right now, the euro arguably is the compromise between cmc and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks nice. Good hit nrn CT to CNE/NNE. A pasty hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Right now, the euro arguably is the compromise between cmc and gfs. We toss CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Dang. Not looking good for my Sunday 9am flight out of BOS. Perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Storm 2 is coming in flatter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6-10” 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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