Interior NW & NE Burbs 2020

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10 minutes ago, snywx said:

0z NAM has a crazy cutoff in the NYC area now 

 

Hate to be unfeeling but, if it stays down there I'm okay with it.

[snywx]

11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Hate to be unfeeling but, if it stays down there I'm okay with it.

I think we are good up here.. lol pivot ftw

[gravitylover]

I've been able to hear it hitting the front of the house glass for a bit now. That doesn't usually happen with just snowflakes. It's hard to see the pellets but you can see them bouncing off things so yeah, that warm layer is real and doing it's thing. Visibility is back up to a quarter mile or more and the flakes are broken and small. Backside snow? I won't count on it...

[LaGrangewx]

Wow incredible here. Very heavy snow and great growth. I just measured an average of 6.5 inches Already. Very light fluffy powder. Similar to the lake effect powder I saw in South bend Indiana in college. I don’t know what the ratios are but I would guess they are significantly above 10-1 as of now.

[Juliancolton]

That last band, albeit brief, was phenomenal. 1" in under 10 minutes. Shame it had to blow right through so quickly. 

3.9"... a little breezy at times but not enough to affect reliable measuring. 

[chietanen]

39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

9 PM measurement 5.5 inches here. I can ecstatically report 3.25 inches in the last hour.

Of course tempering my enthusiasm, because why should any of us have a worry free snow fall at 19°, is the dry slot and the sleet showing up closer and closer.

I have to stop watching models before a storm because they never live up to expectations be it positive or negative.

I posted the same thing to Julian on Twitter around the same time. I need to put down the models and slowly back away! 

[LaGrangewx]

4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

That last band, albeit brief, was phenomenal. 1" in under 10 minutes. Shame it had to blow right through so quickly. 

3.9"... a little breezy at times but not enough to affect reliable measuring. 

Wow a nice 6-7 inch an hour burst. If it snows another 12+ hours here I don’t see how I don’t blow well past a foot If things work out 

[snywx]

18° w/ moderate snow

6.8" otg

[IrishRob17]

19/16 and closing in on 5” but terrible flakes out there now, not a good sign for the short term. 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, chietanen said:

I posted the same thing to Julian on Twitter around the same time. I need to put down the models and slowly back away! 

@chietanen!  How the hell are ya?!

[White Gorilla]

34 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

That last band, albeit brief, was phenomenal. 1" in under 10 minutes. Shame it had to blow right through so quickly. 

3.9"... a little breezy at times but not enough to affect reliable measuring. 

Loved seeing it pile.  Epic. 

[hudsonvalley21]

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

19/16 and closing in on 5” but terrible flakes out there now, not a good sign for the short term. 

Same here but at 4”

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6.8 inches as of 10:00 pm. 1.3 inches in the last hour, so thank God for the 3.3 inches from 8-9 or this would be bordering on a Greek Tragedy 

[IrishRob17]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

Same here but at 4”

That measurement was from one of my extra boards I threw down in a spot that in hindsight is not located all that well, my wife’s car is likely blocking it a bit. My other board is out further in the open yard, didn’t wonder down there. 

[Juliancolton]

It is now doing absolutely nothing. 

 

[snywx]

Snow has picked up in intensity.. S++ at the moment 

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

It is now doing absolutely nothing. 

 

My son and I just referred to this classic as well LOL

[White Gorilla]

Radar nicely blossoming again in MD and South Central PA.  Another good band to move through our area as well. 

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It is now doing absolutely nothing. 

 

Uptown’s AFD has some of that mid level information. It could be that it’s pushing much further north than thought.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong thermal forcing overrunning a 1037mb polar high centered
over eastern Canada, bleeding southward into southern New
England, has resulted in 2-3 inches of snow across portions of
the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Long Island, with snowfall rates of
1-2 inches an hour. This activity will overspread CT and the
Lower Hudson Valley the next couple of hours as cold, dry air
(dew points in the single digits to lower teens) saturates.

Thus far, the NAMNest, the warmer of the solutions aloft, was
handling the thermo profile best when compared to the 00Z OKX
sounding. It was around 0c at 825mb, while the GFS and HRRR were
several degrees cooler. Strong lift though will keep this area
generally isothermal and below freezing the next few hours. The
key here will be the position of the coastal front and how far
north and west the warm nose (around 750 mb) gets overnight.
There is even some evidence that the boundary layer will warm
sufficiently after midnight (due to east winds) for some rain
across eastern sections of Long Island and perhaps coastal SE
CT. The front end dump of snow may make this a moot point with
warning level snows likely achieved before this changeover even
happens later tonight.

Greatest pressure falls of 7mb in the last 3 hours just east of
the Delmarva with a 1004 mb low east Wallops Island, VA. The
low will continue to track northward and hug the coast, as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough works NE across the central
Appalachians. The low will eventually turn east running into the
blocking high over eastern Canada, passing south of Long Island
overnight into Thursday morning.

The primary question remains how far north the low will come
before making its eastward turn, which in turn dictates how
much, if any, warm air is able to work into the area at the
surface and aloft. From a big picture perspective, the models
have been very consistent with the position of the low over the
past 24 hours, with only minor changes from run to run. However,
given how close the low is forecast to come to the region, even
minor changes in the location of the low will have a
significant impact on snowfall totals, especially along the
coast.

In addition, high resolution models are indicating the
potential for a dry slot to develop across Long Island and
perhaps as far north as southern Connecticut. Model soundings
also indicate some loss of saturation in the dendritic growth
zone during this same period, all of which could at the very
least limit the intensity of precipitation, and possibly allow
precipitation to change to drizzle for a period. With that said,
global model soundings remain below freezing throughout the
event, keeping precipitation all snow.

Winds will become more northerly as the low pulls east towards
daybreak, which will allow colder air to filter back into the
region, changing precipitation back to snow everywhere. Snow
will eventually wrap up from west to east from late morning into
the early afternoon.

Snowfall accumulations will range from 12-18 inches across the
Lower Hudson Valley, interior northeast New Jersey, and interior
southwestern Connecticut, where precipitation will remain all
snow. Snow totals will range from 10-15 inches across much of
the New York City metro area and western Long Island, although
totals could be a few inches lower across coastal portions of
Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau County. Across the rest of Long
Island and far southeastern Connecticut, snowfall totals will
range from 4-12 inches, lowest across the Twin Forks and
immediate south facing coastlines.

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

6.8 inches as of 10:00 pm. 1.3 inches in the last hour, so thank God for the 3.3 inches from 8-9 or this would be bordering on a Greek Tragedy 

That’s interesting but you can’t measure snow every hour and add that up, you know that!  

[Hitman]

Snowing hard.  Some pingers mixed in but mostly snow.  Measured  6” on the board.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That’s interesting but you can’t measure snow every hour and add that up, you know that!  

Rob, I'm insulted you even ask.

Nope just taking total depth measurements every hour on my snow board. Although I believe the rules are now that you are supposed to clear it at midnight, like that's gonna happen.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Rob, I'm insulted you even ask.

Nope just taking total depth measurements every hour on my snow board. Although I believe the rules are now that you are supposed to clear it at midnight, like that's gonna happen.

I can promise you that won’t happen here LOL

[hudsonvalley21]

Flakes improving and back to mostly snow. Wind gusts are getting more frequently now.

[Hitman]

Snowing hard.  Some pingers mixed in but mostly snow.  Measured  6” on the board.

[Hitman]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Rob, I'm insulted you even ask.

Nope just taking total depth measurements every hour on my snow board. Although I believe the rules are now that you are supposed to clear it at midnight, like that's gonna happen.

That’s my goal tonight.  Clear at midnight, get some sleep and clear at 6.

[hudsonvalley21]

Just had a lightning flash and a rumble of thunder.

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Just had a lightning flash and a rumble of thunder.

Nice!  I noticed there are no radar echoes near me but it’s still snowing. 

[hudsonvalley21]

At 6” currently. We’ll see what happens overnight.

[Juliancolton]

Take 'em down I think. There's still a razor-thin saturated layer somewhere up there making little needle aggregates, but we slot for the most part.