LaGrangewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Latest RPM looks incredible for entire Hudson Valley. I’m glad this should hit the Some of the ski areas hard. They really need it to get the season going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Latest RPM looks incredible for entire Hudson Valley. I’m glad this should hit the Some of the ski areas hard. They really need it to get the season going.What’s interesting about this is that if you told me last week I would see up to a foot of snow (MMU looks like up to 10, maybe more) a week before Christmas, I’d ask where I could sign up.Also, a nice economic bump if it does hot NE PA and the Catskills well, since their main revenues outside of season passes are taken at the last week of December. It’s good for that along with a COVID-safe activity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, North and West said: What’s interesting about this is that if you told me last week I would see up to a foot of snow (MMU looks like up to 10, maybe more) a week before Christmas, I’d ask where I could sign up. Also, a nice economic bump if it does hot NE PA and the Catskills well, since their main revenues outside of season passes are taken at the last week of December. It’s good for that along with a COVID-safe activity. . Yup. That map spreads the love pretty well. Something to note is that last weeks storm crushed New Hampshire into Maine and this storm looks like it should hit the Poconos, Catskills, Berkshire’s and southern Vermont. Gore, whiteface and The poor Adirondacks seem to be the last areas without a good storm so far this winter. Hopefully they get in on the action soon to jump start their seasons, at least some upcoming cold weather will help for man made snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: Yup. That map spreads the love pretty well. Something to note is that last weeks storm crushed New Hampshire into Maine and this storm looks like it should hit the Poconos, Catskills, Berkshire’s and southern Vermont. Gore, whiteface and The poor Adirondacks seem to be the last areas without a good storm so far this winter. Hopefully they get in on the action soon to jump start their seasons, at least some upcoming cold weather will help for man made snow. If it snows that much north of me, that will funnel a lot of cold air right to me on Friday morning. I'm currently forecasted for 7 degrees, so I think there's room for it go lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 37 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: Yup. That map spreads the love pretty well. Something to note is that last weeks storm crushed New Hampshire into Maine and this storm looks like it should hit the Poconos, Catskills, Berkshire’s and southern Vermont. Gore, whiteface and The poor Adirondacks seem to be the last areas without a good storm so far this winter. Hopefully they get in on the action soon to jump start their seasons, at least some upcoming cold weather will help for man made snow. And the central/northern greens. They need it but have a good week of snowmaking temps and then maybe some natural on the backside of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hitman said: And the central/northern greens. They need it but have a good week of snowmaking temps and then maybe some natural on the backside of the system. Yup. They haven’t had a big synoptic base building snowfall but they seem to get A lot more frequent refreshers and upslope snowfall than Whiteface or specifically Gore. Gore is in a bit of a tough spot to cash in frequently but great mountain to ski with some great terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think I hear Windham calling my name Friday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 20f here. Dew point 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 What will be impressive IMHO will be the blowing and drifting especially along some open areas along I-84. Going to make driving basically impossible. I’m thinking they shut it down for the overnight period. Wdrag has mentioned that drifting up to 4’ is possible in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Any overnight trends for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Any overnight trends for our area? Basically holding serve in our area 14-18” wind gusts to around 30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 06z Euro absolutely crushes the I-84 corridor. This is gonna be fun to watch unfold. Someone from Scranton-Middletown-Newburgh is gonna see a 24 spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njweathered Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18* in Vernon right now. Looks like it’s really coming. Hope y’all get clobbered! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Njweathered said: 18* in Vernon right now. Looks like it’s really coming. Hope y’all get clobbered! Yes. I feel like a good clobbering is in order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: What will be impressive IMHO will be the blowing and drifting especially along some open areas along I-84. Going to make driving basically impossible. I’m thinking they shut it down for the overnight period. Wdrag has mentioned that drifting up to 4’ is possible in some areas. When I was in Patterson the other day I saw a highway dept crew checking the storm gate at the entrance to 84. They knew... That's where the road gets closed and traffic is routed onto secondary roads, it's counterpart is at the bottom of the hill where the Taconic crosses. The temp stayed a few degrees above the forecasted low, likely due to the clouds that never really cleared but, it's 19* now so not a bad starting point. There's also a nice light northerly breeze which is always encouraging ahead of a storm. Is that warm nose still peeking in during the heart of the storm overnight? While it is kind of nice to have a sleet layer holding the snowpack down if it gets as windy as forecasted it also makes for shitty shoveling. I got a new shovel yesterday though so I'm stoked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, snywx said: 06z Euro absolutely crushes the I-84 corridor. This is gonna be fun to watch unfold. Someone from Scranton-Middletown-Newburgh is gonna see a 24 spot Plus the euro is showing higher winds that’s forecasted in our area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 For what it’s worth, my math this morning give me a dewpoint of 6° at MMU. (My two apps don’t show it) Not sure what that means overall for people north of me, but for us due west of the city, can someone with more knowledge basically explain what that means?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Sweet for many here if this type of banding verifies! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12z NAM.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z NAM.. New RPM is even better than before widespread 20-24. Also Check all the new 12z WRF models lol. They’re quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 For viewing pleasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 49 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Sweet for many here if this type of banding verifies! The OC crew definitely are definitely best-positioned to take advantage of that banding orientation. That's your 2-3"/hr and your key to 16"+ totals. The NAM, HRRR, and especially the hi-res RGEM suggest that the WAA fronto band just blows through eastern areas from S to N in a couple hours, to be usurped by subsidence. I thiiink I may be the farthest NE of the regular posters here, so that's my biggest worry for MBY, but hopefully I can still get into the CCB before the dynamics collapse too hard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: What will be impressive IMHO will be the blowing and drifting especially along some open areas along I-84. Going to make driving basically impossible. I’m thinking they shut it down for the overnight period. Wdrag has mentioned that drifting up to 4’ is possible in some areas. Violently agree. Right in my hood NYS 416 can get some serious drifting, NYSDOT will be pushing the banks back for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final call after poring over the mesos and ongoing trends: MGJ: 18" SWF: 15.5" POU: 13" DXR: 9.5" Millbrook: 11.5" Millerton-Salisbury: 12" Catskill-Hudson: 20" Kingston: 17.5" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: My final call after poring over the mesos and ongoing trends: MGJ: 18" SWF: 15.5" POU: 13" DXR: 9.5" Millbrook: 11.5" Millerton-Salisbury: 12" Catskill-Hudson: 20" Kingston: 17.5" Hoping for 18 here in POU but I will gladly take 13 in mid December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: My final call after poring over the mesos and ongoing trends: MGJ: 18" SWF: 15.5" POU: 13" DXR: 9.5" Millbrook: 11.5" Millerton-Salisbury: 12" Catskill-Hudson: 20" Kingston: 17.5" Good calls Julian, very reasonable IMO. At this point as far as I'm concerned, and with the amount of time we've all devoted to this storm, and because I haven't seen anything contrary for days, anything less than 12 inches now I will find disappointing. Anything less than 10 would be disturbing, less than 8 I will pout for days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Hoping for 18 here in POU but I will gladly take 13 in mid December! It's likely false precision, but when I say POU I generally mean the airport itself rather than Poughkeepsie where people live. That's often a meaningful distinction and I think it could be in this case as well... if the banding/subsidence couplet sets up where I anticipate, there could definitely be a multi-inch gradient between the AWOS and, say, Marist, with higher totals N and W. 20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Good calls Julian, very reasonable IMO. At this point as far as I'm concerned, and with the amount of time we've all devoted to this storm, and because I haven't seen anything contrary for days, anything less than 12 inches now I will find disappointing. Anything less than 10 would be disturbing, less than 8 I will pout for days. It's a last-ditch bid to regain some of my lost credibility after going down with the suppression ship. Agreed, 12" is the make-or-break point west of the river. I was hoping to see some hints of a slower system, but alas, guidance continues to show a quick-hitter. The 12z HRRR gets close to saturating the column here between 8 and 9 pm and shuts off deep lift around 9 am. We have certainly seen big totals in 12-hour blitzes before. You just have to get lucky with local enhancements, without much opportunity to make up for lost ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 A few days ago I called for 8-12, I could see upping that a bit but the 15" calls around here feel like a stretch. That warm nose looks like it shows up right about when the heaviest rates get here, to me that says a whole bunch of snowpack squishing sleet and freezing rain. I'm just close enough to the water and open to the ESE/SSE with the real high country just to my WNW so the easterly component to the wind has me concerned that I'll be looking at hours of wet flakes and mixed precip while most of the rest of you are under 2-3" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Point n click forecast low for tomorrow night is 14 IMBY. Was going to post this in the other thread but then the weenies who have no concept of geography would either call me a liar or think that I was referring to their own back yard...Euro has us flirting with 0 or slightly below Saturday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Was going to post this in the other thread but then the weenies who have no concept of geography would either call me a liar or that I was referring to their own back yard...Euro has us flirting with 0 or slightly below Saturday morning. With the snowpack and radiational cooling the Euro’s temps could verify overnight Friday into Saturday in our neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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