Interior NW & NE Burbs 2020

[White Gorilla]

12-18 looks about right for our interior areas with pops at 24 over the Cats or where banding sets up.  This feels like March 2017. 

[North and West]

18 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

Crazy how 24hrs ago there was a real fear of suppression with this system. Knock on wood but that ship seems to have sailed at this point. 

I'm interested in the physics of why such a cold high would allow it to come far north. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm hearing the 12Z GFS brings a foot of snow to Montreal.

Kidding.

[WarrenCtyWx]

I'm just bewildered that we could go from confluence being a major factor potentially limiting totals north of I-84, to having the mix line potentially creeping in even well north of NYC. Talk about a fragile setup. 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm hearing the 12Z GFS brings a foot of snow to Montreal.

Kidding.

It did make quite the jump, it took long enough!

[LaGrangewx]

7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

It did make quite the jump, it took long enough!

What a terrible job that model did the last few days. I believe Saturday 18z it had the monster and then lost it. 

[LaGrangewx]

23 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

12-18 looks about right for our interior areas with pops at 24 over the Cats or where banding sets up.  This feels like March 2017. 

Agreed. Got clobbered here with just under 2 feet but the absolute best banding actually set up Around lake placid all the way into the Adirondacks had 40+. 

[LaGrangewx]

It will be interesting today and Early tomorrow to see if the models continue a Northerly trend or if they’ve reached a peak and begin to inch back south a bit.

[Juliancolton]

14 minutes ago, North and West said:

I'm interested in the physics of why such a cold high would allow it to come far north. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You can see the high/+ height anoms retreating as the transient 50/50 low scoots downstream. The price we pay for a tenuous NAO block.

2 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I'm just bewildered that we could go from confluence being a major factor potentially limiting totals north of I-84, to having the mix line potentially creeping in even well north of NYC. Talk about a fragile setup. 

This has been a very well-forecast system overall, with a long lead time. 100 miles makes a world of difference in these wound-up coastal lows, and that's well within the reasonable track error for 2-3 days out.

[North and West]

20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

You can see the high/+ height anoms retreating as the transient 50/50 low scoots downstream. The price we pay for a tenuous NAO block.

This has been a very well-forecast system overall, with a long lead time. 100 miles makes a world of difference in these wound-up coastal lows, and that's well within the reasonable track error for 2-3 days out.

Thank you. This helped make more sense to me. When can we start asking about IMBY, or is this going to be a real-time forecast as it rolls in?

[nesussxwx]

Back for another one, lets hope the NW trend stops now otherwise we'll be dryslotted with horrible snow growth after a nice thump.

[Rjay]

Thank god you guys have your own thread lol

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

You can see the high/+ height anoms retreating as the transient 50/50 low scoots downstream. The price we pay for a tenuous NAO block.

This has been a very well-forecast system overall, with a long lead time. 100 miles makes a world of difference in these wound-up coastal lows, and that's well within the reasonable track error for 2-3 days out.

That's what I missed.  I did not see the 50/50 scooting out that quickly. 

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Thank you. This helped make more sense to me. When can we start asking about IMBY, or is this going to be a real-time forecast as it rolls in?

We nowcast, for the most part. It'll be evident by tomorrow morning where the mid-level drying may hinder totals, and generally whether the strongest frontogenesis will pivot over I-84 or I-88. When friends have been messaging me to ask about totals, I tell them it'll be a good storm but not one of the greats and won't commit to numbers.

42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Thank god you guys have your own thread lol

That's a widely held sentiment here.

Agree about the 50/50 low, I fell into the same trap in thinking it had more staying power. It's also clear that we're dealing with a sharper trough with more momentum swinging around the base than I'd anticipated up until recently, so that's playing a role, too. If this amped solution holds and southern areas bust low from mixing, folks will be quick to blame it on December climo or warm SSTs or whatever, but I think it was really just the luck of the synoptic draw. That cold powder to the coast scenario was well within reach.

Alternatively, it could just be that forky literally controls the wx.

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, Hitman said:

I’m not Irish but I did recently find this at my local liquor store.  Excellent stuff.

Ooh gotta find me sum o' dat. I've been drinking Mollys for a while now because it's half the price of Baileys.

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Allllright, that's too tucked. That's how you really screw up your ratios for 4 out of 12 hours.

Alright so since you put that red dot pretty much over my house I guess it's time for me to learn how to read these things. I'm totally just guessing here - it looks like it starts out in the mid 20's and soon after the storm starts there's a warm push at 800>700mb (what do these numbers mean?) for a short time before it crashes (likely as the storm approaches our latitude). On the simulated radar why is it showing a white (dry?) slot from the dot southeastward?

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Ooh gotta find me sum o' dat. I've been drinking Mollys for a while now because it's half the price of Baileys.

Alright so since you put that red dot pretty much over my house I guess it's time for me to learn how to read these things. I'm totally just guessing here - it looks like it starts out in the mid 20's and soon after the storm starts there's a warm push at 800>700mb (what do these numbers mean?) for a short time before it crashes (likely as the storm approaches our latitude). On the simulated radar why is it showing a white (dry?) slot from the dot southeastward?

https://wildcardweather.com/2015/02/21/learn-to-read-a-skew-t-diagram-like-a-meteorologist-in-pictures/
 

there are better sites for explanations out there....youtube has some quick vids too but this is an ok quick guide.

[Juliancolton]

16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Alright so since you put that red dot pretty much over my house I guess it's time for me to learn how to read these things. I'm totally just guessing here - it looks like it starts out in the mid 20's and soon after the storm starts there's a warm push at 800>700mb (what do these numbers mean?) for a short time before it crashes (likely as the storm approaches our latitude). On the simulated radar why is it showing a white (dry?) slot from the dot southeastward?

Bx's link is a good resource. Briefly though, the chart shows a vertical slice of the atmosphere at a single moment in time (8z/3 am Thursday). The red line traces the air temperature from the surface (bottom) to, for our purposes, the "top" of the troposphere. The green line is the same concept, but concerns dew point instead of temperature. The dry slot you spotted is a good observation, and is part of what I was illustrating with the graph. Non-tropical low pressure systems are tilted northwestward with height, so if the surface low (the big red L) passes just to our south, its mid-level component may pass overhead or even to our north. When that happens, we run the risk of getting into the mid-level warm sector, replete with dry air and mild temperatures at that level of the atmosphere. Dry air can be identified by large dewpoint depressions, or lots of room between the green and red lines. In that frame, saturation is only being reached up to around 700mb, so much vertical snow-making area is lost. Basically... weak precip rates and inefficient snow growth if taken verbatim.

That's after a strong burst of WAA snowfall, presumably with perfectly fine ratios, so it would still be a nice storm even in that handicapped solution. Just not feet upon feet.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

12-18 looks about right for our interior areas with pops at 24 over the Cats or where banding sets up.  This feels like March 2017. 

I'd love that.

I received 20.8 inches from that storm. With all that ice and sleet mixed in a storm like that might not melt until spring.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Thank you. This helped make more sense to me. When can we start asking about IMBY, or is this going to be a real-time forecast as it rolls in?

 

30 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

We nowcast, for the most part. It'll be evident by tomorrow morning where the mid-level drying may hinder totals, and generally whether the strongest frontogenesis will pivot over I-84 or I-88. When friends have been messaging me to ask about totals, I tell them it'll be a good storm but not one of the greats and won't commit to numbers.

That's a widely held sentiment here.

Agree about the 50/50 low, I fell into the same trap in thinking it had more staying power. It's also clear that we're dealing with a sharper trough with more momentum swinging around the base than I'd anticipated up until recently, so that's playing a role, too. If this amped solution holds and southern areas bust low from mixing, folks will be quick to blame it on December climo or warm SSTs or whatever, but I think it was really just the luck of the synoptic draw. That cold powder to the coast scenario was well within reach.

Alternatively, it could just be that forky literally controls the wx.

What JC said, which is much more eloquent than I what I can say which is its always a nowcast IMO as there are so many nuances with storms like this.  Part of the reason I got.4” in one of those busts up here was that I was stuck in subsidence as a heavy band dumped snow about 10 miles to my south.  Where those areas set up always comes down to nowcasting. 

[MJO812]

[LaGrangewx]

Just Looking at the maps with a limited meteorological background, seems to me like the GFS and EURO for our area are very much in agreement now with their latest runs. Hi-Res and short range want to push the best goods even farther north but still would be a great storm regardless. I’m excited to get some snow and start this winter off with a bang. 

[nesussxwx]

5 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

Just Looking at the maps with a limited meteorological background, seems to me like the GFS and EURO for our area are very much in agreement now with their latest runs. Hi-Res and short range want to push the best goods even farther north but still would be a great storm regardless. I’m excited to get some snow and start this winter off with a bang. 

HI-RES models are seeing a latter-minute amplification trend with stronger mid-level forcing which is pushing the cyclone further north. The mesoscale models would definitely be better at sniffing this out so I wouldn't ignore them, however it is still a bit early for the mesoscale models, later tonight will be more telling.

 

Globals would struggle to pick up that kind of trend.

[LaGrangewx]

4 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

HI-RES models are seeing a latter-minute amplification trend with stronger mid-level forcing which is pushing the cyclone further north. The mesoscale models would definitely be better at sniffing this out so I wouldn't ignore them, however it is still a bit early for the mesoscale models, later tonight will be more telling.

 

Globals would struggle to pick up that kind of trend.

Cool. I appreciate the explanation. Hope everyone sees a good storm, been awhile. 

[Nibor]

I may not get a big snowfall down here in the city but I am excited to do some snowshoeing in the Catskills.

[LaGrangewx]

Lee Goldberg just had 18+ on his map above I-84.

[Hitman]

within 24 hours.  Let's bring this baby home to papa.

[North and West]

The main storm thread reads like a Greek tragedy.


.

[White Gorilla]

Can't believe we actually have a sleet, mix risk that could cut totals when just yesterday, worried about fringe.  

[LaGrangewx]

20 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Can't believe we actually have a sleet, mix risk that could cut totals when just yesterday, worried about fringe.  

Optimistic right now that we can avoid that. I think you said this seems like A March 2017 Setup. We could be right above the mix line hopefully 

[nesussxwx]

33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Can't believe we actually have a sleet, mix risk that could cut totals when just yesterday, worried about fringe.  

If the sleet line blows right through philly and into allentown I'll start getting a lil worried, but if it takes it's time then won't be concerned.